After a long and arduous 64-year wait, Wales’ World Cup adventure could be over after just three games and eight days. Following the disappointing defeat to Iran, Rob Page’s men now have the biggest of mountains to climb against England tonight if they are to stick around in Qatar a little while longer at least.
In reality, Wales really needed to beat Iran after picking up a point against USA in their opening match of the tournament - with their hardest game being the third and final group game against England. Gareth Southgate’s side have reached a semi-final and a final in their last two tournament appearances and are currently ranked fifth in the world, above USA in 16th, Wales in 19th and Iran in 20th.
England are all but assured of a spot in the knockout rounds, barring what would be arguably the worst result in their international history this evening. So, given the fact that Wales only have a solitary point going into the crunch game, below is a breakdown of exactly what they need to happen tonight to make it into the second round of the World Cup.
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The simplest way for Wales to pull off what many see as the impossible task is to beat England - be it in a scrappy, fortunate, undeserved fashion - by any scoreline and for the other fixture being played simultaneously between USA and Iran to end in a draw. This would put Wales through, regardless of how many goals are scored by Wales or how high-scoring the draw is in the other fixture.
England, Wales and Iran would be on four points, but the Iranians would be knocked out on goal difference. USA would have three points.
However, if the other game ends in a win for either side, it’s likely to spell the end of Wales’ World Cup campaign, even if they beat England. That’s because an Iran win and a Wales win would put Iran on six points and Wales on four. Iran would then be through as group winners and England, who would be tied with Wales on four points, would finish second in the group on goal difference.
If USA win against Iran and Wales narrowly beat England, it would put USA through as group winners on five points, but Rob Page’s side would again miss out on second place to England on GD. This is because a one-goal defeat (for example) for England would still leave them with a GD of +3 thanks to their 6-2 win over Iran in their opening match.
That result means their GD is currently +4, while Wales have a GD of -2 after their opening two games. Therefore, to overturn that deficit, a 4-0 Wales win would result in their GD improving to +2 and England’s worsening to 0.
A 3-0 Wales win would not be sufficient as it would put Wales’ on a GD of +1, the same as England’s. In this scenario - where two teams are level on points and GD - the standings in the group would be decided on goals scored, and England would still have the edge having scored six against Iran.
England, therefore, can only be knocked out if they lose by at least four clear goals, as a narrow defeat, coupled with any result in the other game, would still see them through. In fact, even if they lose 4-0 to Wales and USA v Iran is a draw, they would still qualify.
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