December 19, 2023 looks likely to be a key day for Sepp Kuss’ 2024 season.
That evening in Madrid, Kuss will discover - along with the rest of the cycling world - what the 2024 route of the Vuelta a España will be. Once the last Grand Tour route of 2024 finally becomes clear, suddenly the defending Vuelta champion Kuss and Jumbo-Visma will have a much better idea of what next season will hold for him.
The 2024 Giro d’Italia, won by soon-to-be former teammate Primoz Roglič this May, has already been ruled out by Kuss, as had the prospect of him racing all three Grand Tours in a single year, as he did in 2023.
If there had been any second thoughts over Kuss' Giro participation, the gentler route through the mountains compared to 2023 - an ascent of the Stelvio notwithstanding - and the inclusion of two medium-length time trials in the first 10 days, have surely caused them to evaporate completely.
That’s before you even consider Wout van Aert’s interest in taking part and how that may affect Jumbo-Visma’s gameplan and - at least according to senior DS Merijn Zeeman earlier this season - the team rejecting any major GC ambitions at the Giro in favour of using the race to test out their younger riders. Whether Cian Uijtdebroeks is amongst those Jumbo riders remains to be seen, but it's worth noting that long before the recent eruption of his contract drama, he had already expressed a great deal of interest in taking part in the Italian Grand Tour.
The question of how Kuss manages his efforts at the other Grand Tours - namely, how many eggs he puts into the respective 2024 Tour and 2024 Vuelta-shaped baskets, if you like - remains up in the air, at least for now. Even with Primoz Roglič no longer in the picture at Jumbo-Visma, the huge step forward Kuss took in last year’s Vuelta makes it anything but simple to put together exactly how he tackles two of the biggest bike races in the world in less than three months.
"I think the thing I'm most looking forward to is going to the Vuelta being the defending champion, and also going to the Tour and doing my best there, whether it's for myself or for Jonas," Kuss said this earlier this autumn. The underlying implication being that as the rider with the number one dorsal on his back in Lisbon next August 17, he would automatically have full-blown GC options.
But imagine for a moment that the Vuelta 2024 route, when unveiled, actually includes a pancake flat 40-kilometre time trial in the first week. Or that its usual non-stop succession of hill-top finishes does not include at least three or four major mountain stages like in the 2023 race. Kuss’ options of a repeat win overall would drop, though not disappear, and his chances of making a more serious GC bid in the Tour de France, presumably, increase as a result.
A Tour de France Plan 'B' for Jumbo-Visma?
But what if the Vuelta route for 2023 not only confirms the widely predicted stage finish in Lagos de Covadonga, famous not only for being a refuge for some of the last wolves in western Europe but also second in Spain only to the Angliru climb in terms of difficulty? What if it also has a really tough stage, say, through the Pyrenees or the sierras of Madrid? For a climber like Kuss, the attraction of challenging for a second Vuelta a España would suddenly be far greater again.
That won’t change the team’s aim to keep him as high on the Tour de France GC for as long as possible of course - and Kuss will hardly want anything different, given that finishing in the top five in Nice would be a major step up again for the American in terms of his GC potential. However, with the Vuelta overall in the back of his mind, his GC focus on the Tour would perhaps not be as full-blown.
There’s also the not-so-minor matter that in the Tour, Jumbo-Visma already has one outstanding favourite in the shape of Jonas Vingegaard, Secondly, the chances of taking two Grand Tours in a single season for a team, even one with three in their palmares in 2023 like Jumbo, are never to be sniffed at. Assuming Vingegaard is on track, then the Vuelta would be a more realistic and desirable objective for Kuss, from a team point of view. Thirdly, the Tour de France route, with its final time trial (and another in the first week, not to mention a gravel stage that does no favours to climbers) is arguably more favourable to an allrounder like Vingegaard than it is to Kuss -all of which pushes him back towards the Vuelta again.
Yet another scenario, though, is that Jumbo-Visma could well opt to leave any GC plans for the Vuelta for after the Tour. For now - though the long build-up to July will tell us more - Vingegaard’s status as top favourite remains undiminished in 2024. But the disappearance of Roglič from the Jumbo-Visma roster, combined with Remco Evenepoel’s long-anticipated debut in the Tour de France and the certainty that Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates) will be back itching for sporting revenge will likely make the Tour a much tougher challenge for the Dane than it was in 2023.
If Vingegaard (or Jumbo-Visma) lose the Tour then suddenly a repeat ride for Vuelta GC for the Dane - who has already finished second there, don’t let’s forget - becomes a lot more likely. And Kuss' role there once again could well change as a result.
A 'luxury' problem
Furthermore, given the strength in depth of the opposition, Jumbo-Visma could well argue that there is too much at stake in July to leave a rider like Kuss out of their Tour GC plan, and ask him to be 100% rider to fight for yellow alongside Vingegaard. After all, the Vuelta a España showed how effective Kuss was when able to ride in the shadow of his leaders rather than take on all the limelight from the outset.
The welter of potential scenarios is considerable, although as Roglič likes to say, having a luxury problem like this is one that most teams heartily wish they had. That said, the Vuelta presentation and what it shows will be a key part of resolving the ‘headache’ of having two 2023 Grand Tour winners in the same squad for 2024. We also know that Kuss is doing the Tour and the Vuelta and, of course, Vingegaard will be at the Tour.
It's not beyond the realms of possibility that Jumbo-Visma (or Visma-Lease A Bike as they will be known in 2024) may well opt to keep their exact team and individual strategy regarding Kuss and Vingegaard and two of the most coveted titles in cycling in the 2024 season under wraps, all the way through to the first major mountain stage of the Tour de France at least.
At the same time, any possible reticence on Visma's part to reveal their plans for Kuss won't stop the rest of cycling trying to work them out from here until July. Watch this space.
