Britain’s defence secretary, Ben Wallace, resigned at the weekend. In a farewell interview he predicted, ostensibly based on intelligence, that Britain would be “at war by 2030”. Conflict would be on one of three fronts. If Vladimir Putin loses in Ukraine, says Wallace, “he’s still got an air force and a navy … [he’s] not done with us yet”.
The assumption here is of war between Russia and “us”. Next Wallace predicted “a total breakdown of politics in the Pacific”, where “we are deeply vulnerable”. He nowhere identified this vulnerability or why it meant war, hot or cold. Finally, there was to be “a shooting war in Africa, where al-Qaida and Isis threaten the future of nation states”. This in turn would “trigger us internationally coming to [their] aid”.
