What Is The Future Of Mountain West, Pac-12?
We look at all sorts of options
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Will there be a merger?
The epicenter of this round of realignment is somewhere along the banks of the Red River. When Texas and Oklahoma bolted for the SEC, it shifted the ground underneath the NCAA. This set the Big 12 in motion. What started as a desperate attempt to reload and survive, became a murderous revenge tour.
Texas and Oklahoma also set the precedent for schools leaving one Power Five conference for another, which set the stage for UCLA and USC leaving the PAC-12 for the Big Ten.
In the wake of all of that, After the Big 12 added BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF to replace Texas and Oklahoma, Colorado announced it would rejoin the Big 12 and Arizona, Arizona State and Utah will join the conference as well. Oregon and Washington are leaving the PAC-12 for the Big Ten.
Through its surge, Realignment crept closer and closer to the Mountain West until finally, it was so apparently imminent that San Diego State formally announced its intention to leave the conference, presumably hoping for an invite from the PAC-12. The invite never came, and upon the crumbling of the PAC-12, the Aztecs had to backpedal and rejoin the Mountain West.
After getting alarmingly close to harming the Mountain West, conference realignment left it unphased. As football season begins, it seems the conference is safe…for now. The teams are content, the conference is content, and everything is in place.
As of now, the incentives for individual schools are aligned with the incentives for the conference itself. Currently, the PAC-12 is in an unstable state of confusion and the other major conferences seem to have lost their appetite for expansion. So, with nowhere else to go, the schools in the Mountain West are perfectly happy staying put. This aligns perfectly with the wishes of the conference, as it is very interested in keeping the band together.
The danger arises among the ranks of the Mountain West schools when this balance is no longer in place. If the PAC-12 starts to rebuild or if another conference finds itself looking at Group of Five teams to invite, the best-case scenarios of the individual teams could be at odds.
Because of the aligned incentives, and the structure of the conference, the Mountain West is in a really healthy place. The conference is structured in such a way that it reduces the risk of teams abandoning the conference, and if it fails to do that, it ensures the remaining teams are well-compensated for the departure.
Right now, the steep buyouts are keeping the conference intact. It is downright expensive to leave the Mountain West. With one year’s notice, leaving the conference costs $34 million. With two years’ notice, the cost drops to $17 million. That $34 million price tag is a troublesome figure for any parties interested in breaking up the Mountain West.
Although the Mountain West is healthy and conference realignment may be nearing a standstill, it’s not down yet. Going forward, the Mountain West has basically three scenarios. Combine forces with the remaining PAC-12 schools, lose teams, or stay the same. Each has countless potential variations, and there are some other far less likely possibilities, but for now, these remain the three most possible general outcomes.
The unavoidable truth is that the remaining PAC-12 teams need a place to go, and the Mountain West would be happy to oblige. This scenario is probably the fan favorite and is by far the most fun to speculate about. However, it also has the most moving parts.
