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Daily Mirror
Daily Mirror
Business
Sam Barker

What is happening to the economy explained - from mortgages to pensions

If this week's flurry of headlines about financial chaos have left your head spinning, you are not alone.

One day it's the pound falling, then it's mortgages being pulled, then pension schemes at risk - topped off with home loan offers being withdrawn.

On top of all that is rising inflation - as well as Bank of England base rate going up and up.

With so much going on it can be hard to keep up, or work out what it means for you.

So this is our guide to what's going on and what it all means for your money.

What kickstarted this week's economic troubles?

Last Friday, Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng unveiled his mini-Budget.

This promised £45billion of tax cuts, funded by national debt. These cuts will largely help the rich.

He also unveiled plans to slash Stamp Duty, cut Income Tax to 19p and completely abolish the 45p rate of Income Tax that is paid by around 660,000 of the richest people in Britain.

But his mini-Budget then kicked off a dramatic chain of events.

First, the pound plunged against the dollar and the euro.

Pensions and mortgages are in the spotlight with this week's economic chaos (Getty Images/Image Source)

That happened because currency investors got spooked by the idea the UK would be cutting taxes and taking on debt, all while inflation is running high.

To many, this looked like a rash decision by the Chancellor.

So investors began selling their shares of the pound as they felt the price of it would drop - but a mass sell-off meant it dropped even further.

Interest rates were rising before this week - they were 0.1% last November and are now at 2.25% - as part of the Bank of England plans to lower inflation.

The theory is that by raising interest rates - thereby making borrowing more expensive - people will spend less and inflation will drop.

Why are mortgages being pulled?

The next thing that happened is that mortgage lenders began pulling deals from the market - around 1,000 were removed in just 24 hours.

They did this because they can't decide what the right price of these loans should be.

Lenders are pulling or tweaking home loans partly to make sure they don't lose money, but also because financial laws mean they have to be careful not to sell customers mortgages they can't afford later down the line.

Why are mortgages going up in price?

Mortgages were going up in price this year anyway as the Bank of England puts up its base rate.

Tracker mortgages go up in line with base rate. The price of fixed rate mortgages - which about 80% of UK homeowners have - is also affected by base rate.

But mortgage costs are set to rise further, for several reasons. Firstly, a falling pound means higher inflation.

That is because a falling pound raises costs for UK companies, who may choose to pass that on to customers.

Higher inflation means more base rate hikes.

Some experts think base rate could hit 6% next year, up from 2.25% now.

And a higher base rate means more expensive mortgages.

So lenders are uncertain what to price their home loans at, and are pulling them from sale in response.

What else is causing mortgage prices to rise?

But fixed-rate mortgage prices are also affected by something else - swap rates.

The important point here is that the price of swap rates has been rising, and that means fixed rate mortgage costs are too.

But if you are a sucker for the details, read on to find out why that is happening. Otherwise, feel free to jump to the next section.

When mortgage lenders give out home loans, they need to get that cash from somewhere.

In the old days, small, cuddly regional building societies dominated the mortgage world.

Their mortgages were mostly just the cash they raised in interest from customers' current account cash.

Many building societies still rely heavily on this simple idea.

But since the 1970s banks started to muscle in on the mortgage market, and with them came more complicated ways of raising money.

Now mortgage lenders get the cash they lend homeowners from several sources.

One of those is borrowing money from other financial firms, then paying it back with interest.

Swap rates are what mortgage lenders pay to financial firms to get the cash they then lend consumers to buy houses.

That affects fixed-term mortgages because lenders buy 'chunks' of money over two, three, five or ten years.

Anyone with a fixed rate mortgage will recognise those numbers straight away as the length of time a mortgage normally lasts.

Rising costs could also mean house prices fall by up to 15% next year if interest rates keep rising, experts have warned.

Analysts think house prices could drop because would-be home buyers struggle to afford property due to higher interest rates, rising inflation and the risk of recession.

Not only this, but estate agents have warned how house sales are already collapsing with lenders pulling mortgage offers in reaction to the Mini-Budget.

Soaring mortgage costs are set to hit the two million families on a variable deal over the next few months - with many fearing that they may be forced to sell up as a result.

What is happening with pensions?

Pension savers face turmoil too, as many pension funds face possible collapse.

The chain of events started after the pound plunged in the wake of Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng ’s Mini-Budget last week.

In turn, that led to the price of gilts falling.

Gilts, or government bonds, are often bought by pension funds as an investment.

The job of pension funds is to take pension contributions from workers and invest it to grow the cash - paying for our retirements.

Gilts are part of their investments, because after a set amount of time they pay out interest.

But pension funds came under pressure from banks this week to sell their gilts to raise cash quickly, the FT reports.

The problem was that gilt prices have fallen, leading to a black hole in many pension funds' accounts.

The Bank of England has now said it will buy up old UK government bonds, which should push the price of them up for everyone else - and hopefully fix the problem.

What does this mean for my pension?

The good news is your pension is safe if a pension fund goes bust. The bad news is you might not get all of your money back.

It all depends what sort of pension you have.

For most private or workplace pensions, the Financial Services Compensation Scheme guarantees 100% of your pension if a fund goes bust.

But if you have a self-invested personal pension, or SIPP, that falls to up to £85,000 per person.

The state pension is not affected.

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