Boris Johnson will face a vote of no confidence in his leadership tonight after enough Tory MPs submitted letters calling for a challenge.
The Prime Minister is now fighting for his political life after the partygate scandal that has dogged him for months finally resulted in enough Conservative MPs pushing for a vote being held. Mr Johnson received a Fixed Penalty Notice for attending one lockdown party and his leadership was roundly criticised in Sue Gray's scathing report, which laid bare the extent of lockdown boozing in No10 and Whitehall, with excruciating details of how aides drank until they were sick and security staff and cleaners were targeted with "poor treatment".
Today's vote represents a seismic moment for the future of the country. Here are all the key details you need to know.
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What is a vote of no confidence?
A vote of confidence or vote of no confidence is a procedure used by members of a legislative body aimed at removing a government (in this case a Prime Minister and cabinet) from office. To be successful, such a move typically requires a majority of legislators - or MPs - to issue a vote of no confidence in the government.
What are the rules for a Tory vote of no confidence?
Tory MPs can trigger a no confidence vote in their leader at any time if 15% of the parliamentary party write to the chairman of the backbench 1922 Committee. A letter is held on file by the '22 chairman Sir Graham Brady unless it is withdrawn by the MP who sent it. The chairman keeps a secret running tally of how many letters he has, and only makes an announcement if it tips over the 15% threshold.
Currently there are 359 MPs with the Tory whip, so that means 54 of them need to send letters. Once a no confidence vote is triggered, a secret ballot is held of Tory MPs. Today, Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the backbench 1922 Committee, confirmed in a statement that he has now received the 54 letters from Conservative MPs needed to trigger a vote.
If a no confidence vote succeeds, the Tory leader must resign and a full leadership contest is held. But 50% of MPs need to vote “no confidence” for the motion to pass. Theresa May’s critics were undone by this in 2018, when they triggered a no confidence vote - but she then won it. And once a Tory leader wins a no confidence vote by their party, they cannot be challenged again for a year under party rules. In order to oust the Prime Minister today, however the rebels will need 180 MPs, and allies of Mr Johnson made clear he is determined to fight to stay on.
When is today's no confidence vote taking place?
Sir Graham Brady said he notified the Prime Minister on Sunday that the threshold had been reached and they agreed on timings for the vote together. The vote - which will be done by secret ballot - will take place at Westminster today (Monday) between 6pm and 8pm, with the count to take place immediately afterwards.
Will the Prime Minister win?
Well that is the big question. Many people think the most likely outcome is that Boris Johnson is likely to cling on to his position, with the figure of 180 seeming perhaps out of reach for the rebels trying to remove him. However, he could be badly damaged by a solid number of votes against him and emerge even weaker.
What happens if he loses?
If Mr Johnson loses the vote tonight, he will not automatically stop being Prime Minister. To resign as PM he must go to Buckingham Palace and offer his resignation to the Queen.
He has a role in naming his successor, based on who can command the confidence of Parliament. Importantly, he has some control over the timing of this.
Theresa May resigned as Tory leader in 2019 but remained as a ‘caretaker’ Prime Minister until her succession was chosen. If Boris Johnson resigns as PM before a successor is chosen, the Cabinet manual says it is “for the party or parties in government to identify who can be chosen as the successor”.
This could mean that Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab or another senior minister could step in temporarily. But recent precedent suggests the current PM staying on as a caretaker is more likely.
How would a leadership contest work and who would stand in it?
If Mr Johnson is ousted by tonight's vote, there are two potential models that could be used to replace him, both of which we have seen used in recent years. In 2019, when Theresa May resigned, there was a full leadership contest held over six weeks, with Mr Johnson eventually defeating Jeremy Hunt in the final round. Mrs May remained in post while this contest was held.
But in 2016, after David Cameron resigned, there was no contest but a coronation for Mrs May after Andrea Leadsom dropped out.
The two names most linked with the job are Chancellor Rishi Sunak and Foreign Secretary Liz Truss. Mr Hunt has also refused to rule out standing again.
