As the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues with civilian casualties mounting, there have been growing calls for a no-fly zone over Ukraine. However, Western leaders have so far refused to take this step, warning of potentially calamitous consequences.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has himself appealed to the Nato countries to establish a no-fly zone over his country, but Prime Minister Boris Johnson, US President Joe Biden and Nato secretary general Jens Stoltenberg have all ruled this option out.
Johnson was confronted by a Ukrainian journalist during his visit to Poland yesterday (March 1st), and was again forced to refuse her demand for a no-fly zone. But what is a no-fly zone - and why do Western leaders fear a no-fly zone in Ukraine could trigger World War Three?
What is a no-fly zone?
A no-fly zone - also known as a no-flight zone or an air exclusion zone - is an area within which certain types of aircraft are not allowed to fly. They are sometimes established in war zones to prevent attacks from the air.
There may also be much more limited, civilian no-fly zones, which are established to protect particular events - such as sporting events and political gatherings - or sensitive locations from terrorist attack. These zones are typically time-limited.
In conflicts, however, no-fly zones are set up and enforced by a military power to prevent another from operating military aircraft in that area. A no-fly zone was implemented during the Libyan civil war in 2011, but this proved highly controversial.
Why has Boris Johnson ruled out a no-fly zone in Ukraine?
Prime Minister Boris Johnson has insisted that Britain and its allies will not implement a no-fly zone in Ukraine, as has US President Joe Biden. Both say that a no-fly zone in Ukraine could lead to a catastrophic escalation of the conflict.
When confronted over the issue of a no-fly zone in Ukraine, Johnson repeated that Nato forces “will not fight Russian forces in Ukraine”. He insisted that a no-fly zone was “not on the agenda” because it would mean “shooting down Russian planes”.
White House press secretary Jen Psaki has also rejected demands to implement a no-fly zone in Ukraine, giving essentially the same reasons as Boris Johnson. She warned that it would risk a catastrophic escalation and war with Russia.
“What that would require is implementation by the US military. It would essentially mean the US military would be shooting down planes - Russian planes,” she said. “That is not something the President wants to do.”
How could a no-fly zone in Ukraine lead to World War 3?
Implementing a no-fly zone in Ukraine would be fraught with danger, which is why Western leaders have unanimously ruled it out. The problem is that no-fly zones have to be enforced - which would mean Nato planes and Russian planes firing upon one another.
This would be a major escalation and would almost certainly mean full-blown conflict between Nato and Russia. As both sides have nuclear weapons, this conflagration would likely soon turn nuclear, with devastating consequences for everyone concerned.
Britain has also rejected the idea of deploying its own troops in Ukraine for the same reason. Defence secretary Ben Wallace has pointed out that doing so would likely mean Nato and Russian troops firing on one another, giving rise to outright conflict between the two sides.
Article 5 of the Nato charter commits every member of the military alliance to mount a collective response if any one member is attacked by an outside power. An exchange of fire between Russian and Nato forces would therefore all but ensure an all-out war.
Also, introducing a no-fly zone in a particular area is not just a matter of sending fighter jets to do defensive patrols. It can mean active, pre-emptive targeting of enemy positions and planes while they’re still on the ground, which would again be a massive escalation.
Nato implemented a no-fly zone in Libya, as the civil war raged there in 2011. However, its forces went on the offensive in that conflict, actively attacking Libyan government positions and hastening the downfall of Muammar Gaddafi, who was then the country’s leader.
When the matter was voted on by the United Nations’ Security Council in March 2011, Russia - one of the five countries which has a veto on Security Council decisions - abstained, effectively allowing the Nato no-fly zone to go ahead.
However, it seems Russia was under the impression that the Libyan no-fly zone would be a much more limited and defensive operation than it actually was. This left lingering bad blood, and contributed to the deterioration of relations with the West in the subsequent years.
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