PHILADELPHIA — Years ago, before John Middleton became the face of the Phillies’ ownership group, Jimmy Rollins equated him with George Steinbrenner. It’s a comparison that Middleton never minded. Because the late Yankees owner was notoriously obsessed with winning, a trait that is admirable to a former college wrestler-turned-billionaire baseball owner.
And like Steinbrenner, Middleton usually gets his men.
The Phillies targeted Bryce Harper in the 2018-19 offseason and outbid everyone. Same with Zack Wheeler a year later, J.T. Realmuto the year after that, and Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos eight months ago. Since 2018, they have spent more than $1 billion on free agents. Middleton pushed the payroll over the $230 million luxury-tax threshold this year. After coming within two wins of a World Series title, want to bet he’ll do it again?
So, as the Phillies hunt for a shortstop — two rival officials said this week they continue to believe president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski will put on a full-court press for Trea Turner — there’s little reason to doubt that they will land one, especially now that they know Harper will miss at least the first few months of the season while recovering from Tommy John elbow surgery.
But what if they don’t?
Because for all of Middleton’s high rolling and Dombrowski’s typical decisiveness in navigating the market, free agency can be unpredictable. And although there are four marquee free-agent shortstops (Turner, Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, and Dansby Swanson), there may be as many as 10 teams in the bidding. When the music stops, several shortstop-needy teams will be standing around.
It’s crucial, then, to have Plan B, Plan C, and Plan D, especially with activity due to pick up at the winter meetings next week in San Diego. Let’s look at a few potential contingency plans on the off chance that Middleton and Dombrowski come up empty in their shortstop pursuit.
Pitching, pitching, pitching
While shortstop is the Phillies’ top priority, pitching depth isn’t far behind. Specifically, they must replace the 411 innings thrown by free agents Kyle Gibson, Zach Eflin, Noah Syndergaard, Corey Knebel, Brad Hand, and David Robertson.
The Phillies aren’t planning to play at the top of the starting pitching market, which rules out Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander. They appear to be focused more on mid-rotation starters. Think of José Quintana, Taijuan Walker, Nathan Eovaldi, or a reunion with Eflin.
“We know how important depth is,” Dombrowski said. “Doesn’t necessarily have to be a top-of-the-rotation type guy.”
But if the Phillies whiff on a shortstop, maybe they explore a low-first-tier or high-second-tier free-agent starter such as Carlos Rodón, Chris Bassitt, or Koudai Senga, the right-hander from Japan who reportedly has met with several teams and is rumored to be interested in playing in a big market.
The knock on Rodón is durability. But people said the same thing about Wheeler three years ago, as he came off a career-high 195 1/3 innings in his age-29 season. The Phillies believed he was only just entering his peak, and they were right. Rodón, a left-hander who turns 30 in two weeks, threw a career-high 178 innings and racked up 237 strikeouts for the Giants. Maybe he’s peaking, too.
Dombrowski likes power arms and has built teams based on star-studded rotations. He once had Max Scherzer, Verlander, David Price, Rick Porcello, and Aníbal Sánchez in Detroit. With Boston, he assembled a rotation with Price, Chris Sale, Porcello, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Eovaldi.
Absent a star shortstop, the Phillies could lean in on pitching by adding, say, Rodón to Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez, Bailey Falter, and eventually Andrew Painter.
They could also try to shorten games by loading up on high-leverage relievers, Astros-style. Left-hander Taylor Rogers (36% strikeout rate) has swing-and-miss stuff and closing experience. The Phillies have had success in getting Andrew Bellatti, Nick Nelson, and others to throw their sliders more. Maybe they see similar potential in hard-throwing free-agent righty Carlos Estévez’s slider.
Getting defensive
Dombrowski and manager Rob Thomson said recently that they would be content with Edmundo Sosa as the everyday shortstop. In related news, they don’t want to appear desperate for Turner.
But Sosa, who will be 27 in March, did make a strong impression after coming over from the Cardinals in a deadline trade. He’s a stellar defender at multiple spots on the infield, and the Phillies believe he can get back to being the .271/.346/.389 hitter that he was as a rookie in 2021, with room for improvement.
Sosa’s greatest value may be as a versatile fill-in and late-game defensive replacement. But the Phillies could stay focused on run prevention by keeping Bryson Stott at shortstop and trading for two-time Gold Glove second baseman Kolten Wong. The Brewers may move the 32-year-old Wong, who has one year and $10 million left on his contract and is coming off back-to-back solid offensive seasons (.262/.337/.439, 29 homers, 114 OPS+).
Increase the versatility
If the Phillies sign one of the big shortstops, they will be more content to patch the designated hitter spot until Harper returns. Darick Hall could DH against righties; Rhys Hoskins or Alec Bohm against lefties, with Sosa at third base.
But if they don’t, there will be greater urgency to find a big bat. And here’s the problem with signing a non-shortstop to help compensate for the loss of Harper: Once Harper returns, where is that hitter going to play?
The Phillies are set at every position other than shortstop. Even center field, a wasteland for the last few years, is occupied by Brandon Marsh, who will get a chance to play every day after being acquired at the trade deadline for touted catching prospect Logan O’Hoppe.
One free agent who may help: Brandon Drury.
Drury, 30, has played every position except center field and catcher in his eight-year major league career. He mashes lefties and hit a career-high 28 homers this year for the Reds and Padres. Because he was traded at the deadline, he isn’t attached to draft-pick compensation.
As a right-handed hitter, Drury could be the counterbalance to Hall in a DH platoon while also giving other players a chance to rotate through the DH spot. And when Harper returns, he could shift to a bench role and still play three or four times a week at different positions.
