For the past two years, investors have been clinging to the hope of a pivot—just one more rate hike, then the easing begins. It hasn’t happened. And it might not. Services inflation remains stubborn, wage growth continues to rise, and the Fed is constrained by issues of credibility and political pressures. Markets are still dancing to the tune of rate-cut optimism, but the music may have already stopped.
What if the soft landing is a myth? What if the current situation isn’t a cycle but a new regime?
