When German Chancellor Friedrich Merz finally rose to power in May 2025 after years of political failure and an inconclusive election, he already faced what looked like an impossible situation. He had Donald Trump on one side, a few months into an increasingly erratic and vindictive second term, and the rapid rise of the neofascist far right in Europe, and specifically the Nazi-curious Alternative for Germany party, or AfD, on the other.
Merz’s party, the center-right Christian Democratic Union, had just “won” a federal election in Germany with 28.5% of the vote, the second-worst result of its entire post-World War II history. The AfD had literally doubled its vote share, to nearly 21%, but enthusiastic support from Elon Musk, JD Vance and other MAGA ambassadors failed to push it over the top (and may even have backfired). Merz was able to forge an awkward governing coalition with the center-left Social Democratic Party, the CDU’s longtime ideological opponents. The “firewall,” an agreement that Germany’s mainstream parties will do everything possible to block the AfD from power, had held for the moment.
