Projecting the NFL draft is a complex web of intricately woven “what if” scenarios. One of the current webs being spun is a contrarian idea that the Houston Texans will opt to take a defensive standout with the No. 2 pick in the 2023 NFL draft instead of the widely expected choice of a quarterback.
It’s a thought exercise worth exploring, whether it’s based in reality or not. What if the Texans select Alabama EDGE Will Anderson (the most likely defensive candidate) at No. 2?
Instead of doing a full-on mock draft, here’s how the Texans blazing a defensive path at No. 2 would set the rest of the first round on fire.
For the Texans
Houston going defense at No. 2 has a huge impact on what the Texans will do with their other first-rounder, the No. 12 pick acquired from the Cleveland Browns.
The Texans are still in the formative stages of their rebuild. New head coach Demeco Ryans is a defensive-oriented coach. Heck, he was a great linebacker in Houston not too long ago. By taking Anderson at No. 2 and adding him to a promising young secondary that features 2022 picks Jalen Pitre and Derek Stingley Jr., there is a core group that can grow together.
It’s then up to GM Nick Caserio to decide if the team builds up an even more formidable defense, or turns its attention to the problem at QB. The Texans punting on QB at No. 2 means the likelihood that the fourth QB on the board, be it Will Levis, Anthony Richardson, C.J. Stroud or Bryce Young, would be available at 12 is dramatically increased.
It’s risky to presume that a quarterback the Texans like would fall, however. That range of the draft tends to be the sweet spot for offensive line, cornerback and (perhaps) the start of any wide receiver run. It’s also where that next tier of EDGEs figures to go — guys like Lukas Van Ness, Myles Murphy, Nolan Smith. Doubling down on EDGE might be the way to go to help build the Texans in Ryan’s vision. Remember–he came back to Houston from the DL-heavy 49ers, and Caserio is from the Bill Belichick tree that also loves to build a defensive front into a power.
Cardinals at No. 3
Right now, the expectation is the Arizona Cardinals will trade out of the No. 3 spot. The value of that slot as a trade chip goes up if another quarterback is available, but only conditionally.
More supply at QB means teams in the 4-10 range that might be looking at QBs will have better chances to get the one they desire. A team wanting a specific quarterback figures to still be very much in the market to move up. But if a team doesn’t have a strong preference, they’re more likely to wait it out and see how the board falls.
If I’m the Cardinals and new GM Monti Ossenfort, I’m getting the trade done now and not risking this ort of scenario playing out. Presuming the Cardinals do, in fact, want to trade back…
The Colts are winners
At No. 4, the Indianapolis Colts are under edict from owner Jim Irsay to select a quarterback. The Texans passing on a QB at No. 2 means Colts GM Chris Ballard will have more options.
Any impetus for Indianapolis to make a quick trade up to No. 3 diminishes, especially if Ballard and new head coach Shane Steichen are happy landing more than one of the remaining QBs. Indianapolis fans who covet C.J. Stroud: this is your best-case scenario.
When do the QBs go?
Let’s say the Cardinals make a trade at No. 3. It seems unlikely they’ll drop back outside of the top 11, with 11 being key because that’s the Titans. As in, the (widely perceived) QB-needy Tennessee Titans, the organization Ossenfort came from to Arizona.
That’s one of the remaining QBs off the board. The Colts at No. 4 would shock the world if they selected anything other than a QB. That’s two.
That leaves just one of the top four grouping of Young, Stroud, Levis and Richardson. Seattle sits at No. 5 and the Seahawks suddenly control the last drop of oil in the QB desert.
The Seahawks could take a QB themselves. Their commitment to resurgent Geno Smith is not long-term by any means, and it doesn’t appear backup Drew Lock is the chosen successor to Smith. Or they could auction off the pick to the highest bidder desperate to sate a QB thirst. Really nice spot to be in for GM John Schneider and head coach Pete Carroll. They could conceivably get the same return in capital that the Cardinals get from dealing No. 3.
Hendon Hooker
Hooker is the widely assumed No. 5 QB. He’d be in the conversation with Richardson and Levis if he were healthy and 23 years old, but the Volunteers quarterback is 25 and coming off an ACL surgery that will keep him sidelined at least through training camp and likely deep into his rookie season.
Not much changes for Hooker in terms of draft value. He’ll still be the next man up, likely for a team that doesn’t need a No. 1 or a No. 2 in 2023. One place he makes more sense if the Texans don’t take a QB in the first is Houston itself. The Texans hold pick No. 33 overall. If they’re comfortable rolling with the combination of Davis Mills and Case Keenum in 2023, the Texans could be a great landing spot for Hooker to learn for a year, get healthy and then take over as the starter in 2024.
Defensive fallout
Subtracting a top defensive player from the draft pool earlier than expected means a run on defensive linemen could materialize quickly. Teams like Detroit, Las Vegas, Atlanta and Philadelphia that typically project defense in the top 10 might feel the need to jump up to the front of the line. Could that be Arizona at 3? Seattle at 5?
We’ll learn quickly just how much NFL teams covet the likes of Tyree Wilson, Jalen Carter and Myle Murphy, or Anderson if he’s not the Texans pick at No. 2. It would seem their stock would rise simply by the laws of supply and demand for impact defensive line help.
