ANALYSIS — The 2024 elections were going to humble one party, and voters called Democrats to the carpet. It will take days to get final results and probably weeks before there’s a full understanding of what happened, but there are more than a few points that can be made in the wake of elections.
History-making
Donald Trump will be the first person to be elected president after being defeated since Grover Cleveland in the late 1800s. Trump is also the oldest person ever elected president (he’s older than Biden was in 2020). And Trump is the first convicted felon ever elected president.
It wasn’t a surprise
Unlike 2016, no one was making firm declarations about who was going to get elected president in 2024. The national polling showed an even race between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, and the candidates were deadlocked in the seven swing states. Only the foolish were ruling out a Trump victory.
We even wrote about how it could feel like a landslide if the election shifted a few points in one direction and one candidate swept the toss-up states. Trump might not sweep them, but he’s coming close. Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Michigan have been called for Trump by The Associated Press. Arizona and Nevada remain uncalled by the AP. Without those states, Trump is at 295 Electoral College votes. (He received 304 in his 2016 win.)
But it was kind of a surprise
What was surprising was the breadth of Trump’s victory across so many demographics. He improved among nearly all types of voters compared with four years ago. Trump gained among various minority voters, younger voters, men, etc. The media could try to pinpoint one specific demographic as the catalyst for Trump’s win, but it was broad.
Before Election Day, it looked like Trump was stuck, politically. He received 46.1 percent nationally in his 2016 win and 46.8 percent nationally in his 2020 loss and was polling at 46.8 percent in 538’s national polling average. But Trump is hovering close to 51 percent in the current tally. He might be the first GOP presidential candidate to win the popular vote in 20 years, since President George W. Bush’s reelection in 2004. He put up massive wins in big states such as Texas and Florida and came surprisingly close to winning blue states such as New Jersey, where Harris leads by just 5 points.
GOP Senate
As expected, Republicans gained control of the Senate. They needed to gain two seats for a majority and they have at least a four-seat gain. That could push higher with wins in Arizona and Nevada in races that have not been called by The Associated Press. With those key races still outstanding, the final could fall within our likely projection of a Republican gain of two to four seats, or Republican gains could exceed it slightly.
Making history in Congress
Democrats Angela Alsobrooks in Maryland and Lisa Blunt Rochester in Delaware will become the first two Black women to serve together in the Senate. And Delaware Democrat Sarah McBride will be the first transgender member of Congress.
Fight for the House rages on
A good chunk of the 65 House races rated as competitive by Inside Elections have yet to be called by a major media outlet. Up to this point the races have fallen as expected, with a few exceptions. Pennsylvania Reps. Susan Wild and Matt Cartwright lost reelection in races rated as Tilt Democratic coming into Election Day.
With more than 20 races left to be called, the overall House range could fall within our likely projection of anything from a Republican gain of one seat to a Democratic gain of nine seats. Democrats need to gain four seats for a majority.
Using AP data compiled by reporter Jamie Dupree, Republicans have won or are leading in 221 seats, while Democrats have won or are leading in 214 seats. That would be no net change in the House and would fall within our preelection projected range. But Republicans could still gain a seat or two.
Who’s to blame?
Even though Harris is on track to be soundly defeated by Trump, it would be shortsighted of Democrats to place the blame solely on the vice president’s shoulders.
While the shift from President Joe Biden to Harris at the top of the ticket breathed new life into Democratic chances of winning, she was still saddled with Biden’s unpopularity and an electorate sour on the economy and the direction of the country. Nearly 63 percent of voters said the country was headed in the wrong direction, compared with just 27 percent who said it’s headed in the right direction, according to the RealClearPolitics national average. Those are difficult numbers for the incumbent party to overcome.
In addition, Trump benefited from collective amnesia around the country. According to Gallup at the end of September, a majority of Americans believed their family was worse off now compared with four years ago. That’s remarkable considering the country was still scrambling in a pre-vaccine pandemic posture, unemployment was at 6.7 percent in October 2020 compared with 4.1 percent last month, and 1,200 Americans were dying with COVID-19 every day in November 2020.
But voters’ perceptions matter more than reality. And there’s no question in my mind that Trump benefited from the distance between the end of his presidency and the 2024 elections. How do I know? If Americans were so happy with Trump’s first four years in office, then he wouldn’t have lost to Biden by 7 million votes.
Democrats should take the opportunity to reflect and have a broader conversation about the party brand, what the party stands for, what it’s known for and who will lead the party moving forward, because there appears to be a chasm between Democrats and a majority of voters right now.
Shifting coalitions
Yes, Trump improved among all sorts of voter groups and got elected with maybe the most diverse coalition of voters for a Republican in recent history. But I’m convinced this is not a lasting shift for the two parties but rather a specific dynamic with Trump. Once Trump is gone, I’m not sure this coalition is easily transferable to another candidate.
We’ve seen over the last couple of years that anybody who tries to be Trump fails. They look mean or silly when compared with the original. But we won’t really know until we have an election without Trump on the ballot, in the White House or as a major part of the conversation.
At a minimum, Trump’s victory will embolden other politicians to emulate his style of brash and even offensive rhetoric. Even if voters didn’t specifically reward Trump because of his words, they certainly didn’t punish him.
Trump is Trump
Trump’s resiliency is unmatched in American politics, past and future. His pre-established brand as a successful outsider supersedes virtually any wrongdoing because voters have such a low view of politicians and government and Americans objectify celebrities. There’s no other politician who could withstand more than 90 federal indictments, more than 30 felony convictions, meandering speeches and awkward stage moments.
Even though he’s been a candidate and politician for nearly a decade, Trump is viewed as a change agent and disruptor at a time when voters are discontent. Change is the norm, as explained by veteran political analyst Bruce Mehlman. This is the sixth consecutive election going back to 2014 in which at least one of the House, Senate or White House switched party hands.
Mandate?
“America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate,” Trump said onstage in the wee hours of Wednesday morning, basking in the glory of his victory. Claiming a mandate is a rite of passage for the winning party.
But while his victory was sweeping, I’m not convinced a majority of voters understand what mass deportation looks like or feels like. Or that voters want the Jan. 6 insurrectionists to be pardoned. Or for Republicans to overhaul the Affordable Care Act. Or to use the Department of Justice against political enemies. Or get rid of fluoride in water. Or ban vaccines.
More voters trusted Trump as a leader compared with Harris, but the results felt more like a repudiation of the Democratic brand than a desire for Trump to pursue his most vindictive goals.
Looking to 2026
While the dust is still settling on the 2024 elections, the baseline for the 2026 midterm elections has been set. Trump’s surprising strength in blue states may put a target on the backs of Democrats in New Jersey and Illinois, including likely new member Nellie Pou in New Jersey’s 9th District. That seat would have voted for Biden by 26 points in 2020, but Pou is clinging to a less than 5-point lead. New York Rep. Tom Suozzi also can’t rest easy after narrowly beating an underfunded GOP opponent by 2 points as Trump likely carried his district based on his increased strength in Nassau County.
That said, Trump oversaw a resounding defeat for Republicans in the 2018 midterms and his plans for a second administration could spark even more significant political backlash, so Democrats will be on offense as well — maybe not in Florida or in Texas, though, where GOP gerrymanders and favorable political trends have extinguished Democratic hopes in two consecutive cycles.
In the Senate, Democrats face another challenging cycle, and depending on how uncalled races shake out, the party could be a distance from a majority. Maine and North Carolina are probably their best pickup opportunities, and in a favorable cycle, Iowa, Texas and Alaska could develop into interesting races. But the party will be on defense in Minnesota, Michigan and Georgia.
Perhaps the most interesting race of the next cycle will be in Ohio, where a special election to replace Vice President-elect JD Vance will take place. Tuesday’s results showed Democrats are the underdogs in the Buckeye State, but the political environment could be very different a year into the second Trump administration.
With the Senate potentially out of reach for Democrats, the House will be the focus of the 2026 elections.
The system worked
As usual, we had a free and fair election. It’s remarkable that the only times in recent history when there were claims of rigged elections and allegations of widespread fraud were when two people lost: Trump in the 2020 presidential election and Republican Kari Lake in the 2022 gubernatorial election in Arizona.
Republicans were sowing the seeds of distrust in the system and the election for weeks leading up to Nov. 5, and Trump was even claiming the vote in Pennsylvania was rigged early on election night, but somehow all of those concerns evaporated when he won.
On the flip side, Republicans have tried to claim that their election integrity efforts or tantrums about fraud are equaled by Democrats. But that’s just not the case. No serious Democrats are casting any doubt about the 2024 results, and Harris conceded to Trump graciously on Wednesday afternoon.
Neither are both parties the same when it comes to protesting the results of an election. In Washington, there was enough concern about postelection violence that several storefronts boarded up their windows in select areas. No violence materialized, and the boarding is already coming down.
The death of polls?
Did Trump drive a stake through the heart of polls? Maybe, and maybe not. While polls clearly showed that a Trump victory was possible, it looks like many surveys underestimated his support for a third consecutive cycle.
At the same time, it was the lack of polls that led to a “miss” of Trump’s surprisingly strong performance. If we had had more polls in Illinois or New Jersey or other Democratic places where Trump overperformed, at least some of those surveys would have likely pointed to a stronger-than-normal Republican performance by Trump.
As we look ahead to 2026, it’s important to remember that polling in 2018 and 2022 was more accurate — notably, when Trump wasn’t on the ballot — but pollsters will likely be doing some soul-searching on methodologies once again.
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