What had been a consistent 0.4-second deficit in the dry to pacesetter Max Verstappen across Friday and Saturday morning practice in Melbourne was suddenly slashed in half right when it counted.
At the start of a second season of ground-effect struggles for the eight-time constructors’ champion, George Russell hustled the limited W14 round just 0.236s short of the 1m16.732s Red Bull benchmark. Meanwhile, team-mate Lewis Hamilton was only another 0.136s in arrears to lead the second row of the grid ahead of Aston Martin driver Fernando Alonso.
Changeable weather in FP2 leaves all teams deprived of race simulations, but Russell has naturally promised to “go for it” in any dice with Verstappen. A breakdown of their one-lap pace suggests he is right not to roll over and declare the race to be a walkover for the RB19, as the first two rounds of the term might imply.
The car fixes Mercedes has been chasing down under
Part of the reason why the Mercedes turn of speed in qualifying was unexpected, aside from the underlying inferiority of the W14 compared to the Red Bull, comes from the team again losing time to experimenting with car set-up to appease Russell and Hamilton.
The seven-time champion in particular has complained of lacking confidence with an unstable rear end at lower speeds. This comes in addition to his desire for more downforce. As a result, the team used FP1 and FP2 to switch between suspension settings to chase more mechanical grip. However, this led to swings in driver satisfaction from one session to the next as Mercedes attempts to stay within the car’s narrow operating window.
For example, Russell reported that he felt more comfortable in the car as the day wore on. By contrast, Hamilton came away feeling that the team had taken a backwards step between the two runouts.
When Hamilton led the Mercedes charge in FP1, relative to Verstappen, the telemetry shows that he suffers most under initial acceleration out of the slower sequences before the W14 fights back through the mid-range. This poor getaway tallies with his uneasy relationship with the rear axle.
And, as per Saudi Arabia, the Red Bull pulls no punches towards its top speed. The RB19 flexes its muscles by up to 6mph through the quicker runs leading to Turn 3, the reprofiled Turns 9-10 and into the 90-degree right-hander of Turn 11.
A nip-and-tuck tussle with Verstappen
Mercedes says it entered qualifying with a car set-up that placed the emphasis on race pace - with the aim of preserving the fragile soft Pirelli tyres in the cooler conditions - rather than chase one-lap glory. Besides, both drivers had emerged from Friday running with the muted goal of fighting for a best result of fifth in qualifying.
But with the engines turned up into their most potent modes for Q3, the data from the shock turnaround on Saturday shows the Mercedes are much closer to the RB19 in the speed traps. There’s just 1.2mph in Verstappen’s favour over Russell into Turn 1. And, compared to practice, a more modest 3mph split between the machines before the braking zone into Turn 3.
Thereafter, the contest between the Red Bull and W14 is much closer. For the sprint to Turn 6, the Mercedes machines seize the advantage. But Verstappen emerges from that corner with better initial acceleration before the mid-range punch brings Russell back into the frame. The overlays have the three contenders then switching places for the rest of the Albert Park lap.
A smaller spread of top speeds aside, there is not a dramatic difference between the quickest efforts from FP1 to Q3. It is not as though Mercedes goes from perennially struggling through slower corners to then dominating at low-speed to imply a silver bullet has been found.
Instead, in qualifying, as per the previous day, the Red Bull thrives through the sweeping Turn 9-10 change of direction, even if the Mercedes can hold its advantage into Turn 11 more convincingly this time before Verstappen runs clear under braking.
With Russell and Hamilton then quicker through the final two corners and to the timing line to bring the Mercedes gap to Verstappen down to 0.236s, the contest is tight and genuine.
