Around the world in 2024, voters chose change: in South Africa, France, Britain, and Japan. But nowhere does the anti-incumbent trend matter more than in the United States. The global uncertainty created by an oscillation of power between left and right—from Barack Obama to Donald Trump to Joe Biden and back to Trump—in the world’s only military superpower has again left political and business leaders in every region of the world scrambling to spot opportunities and risk.
The 2016 election of Trump was a surprise to allies and adversaries in Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and beyond, but it came in the context of relative international stability. His comeback victory comes in a dramatically more unstable—and dangerous—geopolitical environment. Trump must manage two wars and a U.S. relationship with China that has grown much more confrontational.
