They are hardly in Leicester City territory, but it’s fair to say bookmakers would be surprised if either of Wales’ Championship clubs were celebrating title success come next May.
At the moment Cardiff City are 25-1 to finish ahead of Norwich, Watford and the rest, with Swansea priced a few points shorter at 20-1. Of course, success in the second tier is not solely measured by titles, but more generally by promotion to the Premier League.
On that score, Swansea are just 5-1 – perhaps surprisingly just a point longer than Burnley, who have just been relegated from the top flight after a six-year stay – with Cardiff quoted at 8s. A lot can change over the course of the coming months. A few big signings here and there and the bookies may start running for cover.
READ MORE: What Gareth Bale just told his team-mates in the dressing room sums up everything about Wales
Cardiff manager Steve Morison, for his part, has added five new faces to his squad, with last week’s capture of Callum O’Dowda complementing the arrivals of Ebou Adams, Jak Alnwick, Ollie Tanner and Jamilu Collins.
Swansea, meanwhile, have signed Nathan Wood from Middlesbrough, while fellow defender Wasiri Williams is likely to join the under-23 set-up after a spell in non-league football.
But it’s fair to say neither club has yet landed the marquee name their fans crave. In Cardiff’s case it’s – no drum roll needed here – Gareth Bale. For Swansea, it’s Joe Allen. Wales talisman Bale has been linked with a move to his hometown club ever since it became apparent his time at Real Madrid was nearing its end.
His Wales colleague Allen has been touted for a summer return to boyhood club Swansea – boss Russell Martin has admitted he is keen on the idea – but other clubs with deeper pockets are also in the race.
The futures of the two stars who did so much to help Wales towards the World Cup in Qatar will be sorted in the next few weeks. But what do bookmakers make of it all? Is a sensational Bale move to Cardiff likely to see the Bluebirds’ promotion odds crash? And should Swansea head coach Martin be looking elsewhere in a bid to boost his squad? We asked leading bookmaker Paddy Power for its thoughts...
What is the general view among bookies of the prospects for Cardiff and Swansea?
PP : Both Cardiff and Swansea struggled for consistency last season and will certainly look to rebuild in the summer with hopes of improving on bottom-half finishes. Surprisingly, Gareth Bale has been well backed to join Cardiff during the summer window. Cardiff really struggled to convert chances last season and only managed 50 goals – only four teams managed fewer, and three of them were relegated.
Defender Aden Flint top-scored for the Bluebirds with six, so obviously someone of Bale’s quality and experience could help them towards an unlikely promotion push next season. Swansea also struggled for goals last season and also conceded far more than they would have liked. Which, as you can guess, is not a great combination.
Russell Martin has been praised for his progressive passing style of play, but he’s now had a full year to settle in and impose his philosophy, so a top-half finish will be the minimum expected for the Swans next year. With the Championship being so competitive, one or two shrewd transfers in the coming months could set up either of these sides for a run at the play-offs.
If Bale were to sign for Cardiff, what effect would that have on their promotion odds?
PP: Should Bale complete a sensational move to Cardiff, you would definitely see a significant improvement in their chances at promotion – we could even see their price cut in half.
A fit and motivated Gareth Bale has shown what he can do on so many occasions, and especially for Wales in recent years. Having led them to the World Cup, he should have extra motivation to go into Qatar in the best form possible as well.
What type of player do Swansea need in order to make progress?
PP : Like all clubs in the Championship, Swansea could probably do with a little bit in every position. As a priority they should be looking at reinforcements at centre-half.
Unfortunately for them they also run the risk of losing some crucial players which they need to hang on to. Joel Piroe is attracting interest following an outstanding debut season, scoring 24 goals across all competitions.
Additionally, while Hannes Wolf proved an excellent loan signing midway through the campaign, he has returned to Borussia Monchengladbach. Replacements will be a must if either, or both, of these players are not around at the end of the summer.
Realistically, are we more likely to see either Cardiff or Swansea challenging for promotion or the play-offs next term?
PP : Early predictions suggest Swansea will make a stronger play-off challenge out of the two. Following a season of transition, the squad should be fully accustomed to Russell Martin’s style of play, while a couple of smart signings should give them a better foundation to build a promotion push.
If there is to be a surprise package, which team would it be?
PP : There will always be a surprise package that makes a run at promotion in the Championship and the unpredictable nature of the league makes it so exciting to watch.
Many teams will look at the remarkable season Luton have just had and look to replicate their success. In terms of a team to look out for at this early stage, could Sunderland make it back-to-back promotions?
Under Alex Neil they have a very experienced manager who has tasted promotion from the Championship before. When you add into the mix the support they get from their massive fanbase, you start to fancy them making a run at the play-offs if they get off to a good start. Early betting also suggests they are fancied to do well this year by punters.
CHAMPIONSHIP WINNER
6 Norwich, 7 Watford, 9 West Brom, 10 Sheffield Utd, 12 Middlesbrough, Burnley, 16 Huddersfield, 20 Stoke, Sunderland, Swansea, 25 Blackburn, Cardiff, Coventry, Hull, Millwall, Luton, QPR, 30 Wigan, 33 Birmingham, Blackpool, 40 Bristol City, Preston, Reading, 66 Rotherham.
Odds supplied by Paddy Power.
