THE Tories are set to have their majority decimated at the next General Election, according to the latest YouGov poll.
The huge survey of 14,000 people, the most detailed poll conducted by YouGov in five years, sets out a drastic predicted change in the make-up of the House of Commons after the next UK-wide ballot.
But what do the predictions mean for the SNP and Scotland? And what else can we learn from the results?
SNP majority of seats in doubt
First Minister Humza Yousaf’s independence strategy depends on the SNP winning at least 29 out of the 57 Scottish Westminster seats up for grabs - but the latest poll has the party only winning 25. Scottish Labour look set to return several seats in the central belt, Fife and Na h-Eileanan an Iar.
The Western Isles seat is currently held by independent Angus MacNeil, who was suspended from the SNP last year, and who had called for the SNP not to stand anyone against him.
Overall, Labour look set to take 24 seats across Scotland, if the results are to be believed.
This could spell issues for Yousaf and SNP Westminster group leader Stephen Flynn, not only on their independence strategy but on their wider role in the Commons.
SNP lose third-party status
If the LibDems win 48 seats - recovering their pre-2015 cohort - then the SNP would lose their position as the third largest party in Westminster and with it their spot at FMQs.
FM Yousaf made this argument during the party’s General Election launch in Glasgow last week, and there’s no doubt about it: Without that prime-time TV spot during PMQs, independence and Scotland will quickly fall even further off the UK media agenda.
Scotland won’t be Tory- free
Yousaf’s bid to make Scotland Tory-free could also be in doubt, with the party only polled to gain two seats from the Tories, Dumfries and Galloway, Alister Jack’s current seat, and West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine, from junior minister Andrew Bowie.
Elsewhere, the Tories are set to retain two seats in the Borders and two in the north east, while Tory defector Lisa Cameron’s East Kilbride seat goes to Labour.
Tory ministers out while one ex-New Labour grandee is back in
A whopping 11 Tory Cabinet ministers look set to be ousted if the comprehensive poll results are believed. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Leader of the House of Commons Penny Mordaunt, and Defence Secretary Grant Shapps are among the high-profile names set to be ousted by voters at the next election, as well as the current Scottish Secretary’s seat being lost to the SNP.
But one former Labour Cabinet minister will be back in Westminster - as Douglas Alexander looks set to win the Lothian East seat over the SNP’s candidate Ian Whyte.
Last year, Alexander claimed Scotland had been mired in a “lost decade” of constitutional arguing preventing progress, so it looks unlikely that as an MP he would be willing to engage on issues around the country's future.
Labour will be set for a majority
With Keir Starmer’s party set to sweep to power with 385 seats, they would have a majority of 120. Last week, Yousaf vowed to work constructively with a Labour government on progressive policies and to stave off any further U-turns, particularly on issues like green energy.
But, with such a large majority in the Commons, Starmer or his cabinet wouldn’t need to work constructively with any party, as passing legislation would be a breeze with such a large majority.
It would rule out any chance the SNP had of negotiating a Section 30 order to hold an independence referendum, something Starmer has already said he would refuse to engage on, never mind negotiating independence itself, as the SNP's strategy sets out.
