What next for Yevgeny Prigozhin?
The Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Saturday that the Wagner head had agreed to leave Russia for Belarus as part of a deal to end his armed revolt, while charges against him for organising the rebellion would be dropped. Peskov added that Vladimir Putin and the Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko had guaranteed Prigozhin’s personal safety.
The warlord’s current whereabouts is unknown. He was last seen leaving the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don late on Saturday to a rapturous reception, with crowds of men gathering around him.
In an audio message recorded shortly before his departure from the city, Prigozhin made no mention of an exile to Belarus, instead saying he had ordered his troops back to their field camps in Russian-occupied areas of eastern Ukraine, where they have been fighting alongside Russian regular soldiers.
Prigozhin has since been unusually silent, given his frequent use of social media. Many questions regarding his future remain unanswered, not least his level of freedom and direct security, which may depend on what he does in Belarus.
The authority and self-image of Putin have sustained lasting damage as a result of the revolt, and Prigozhin’s continued public presence could further undermine the Kremlin’s credibility. But Prigozhin is known to be a ruthless and ambitious figure and some observers questioned whether he will settle for an early retirement in Belarus.
Where are the Wagner soldiers now?
When Prigozhin announced his revolt on Friday evening, he said he commanded a force of 25,000 troops. After he took control of Rostov-on-Don, a group of 5,000 men were reportedly sent farther north towards Moscow before being ordered to halt their advances in the Lipetsk region, about 250 miles south of the Russian capital.
The head of the Lipetsk region said on Sunday morning that all of the Wagner forces had left his area; the mercenary fighters were also filmed leaving Rostov-on-Don late on Saturday, alongside Prigozhin. It was not immediately clear if all troops were heading to their bases in eastern Ukraine, as stated by Prigozhin.
While Wagner’s march lasted for less than 24 hours, the group appeared to have inflicted some damage on the Russian military. Rybar, a well-connected Russian Telegram channel, said Wagner fighters had shot down seven helicopters, resulting in the deaths of 20 Russian soldiers.
Is this the end of Wagner?
Prigozhin built the Wagner group into a powerful force over years of interventions across Africa, the Middle East and – more recently – Ukraine.
But on Saturday the Kremlin hinted at the dissolution of the group, with Peskov saying that fighters who had not taken part in the march would sign contracts with the defence ministry.
Putin had previously said that all “volunteer units” should sign contracts by 1 July bringing them under the control of the defence minister, Sergei Shoigu.
Peskov added that the Wagner fighters who had taken part in the revolt would not be prosecuted, given their “past achievements at the front”.
As Prigozhin’s revolt unfolded, his business page on VK (originally VKontakte), a Russian social media platform, was shut down by the Russian authorities. Several Wagner recruiting centres across the country were also closed.
Despite the seemingly failed mutiny and Peskov’s statements, Wagner fighters seemed to be in a celebratory mood on Saturday, tooting their horns as they left Rostov-on-Don. Several Telegram channels linked to Wagner were similarly upbeat, suggesting that the uprising had reached its goals.
Prigozhin is believed to be extremely popular among his Wagner troops, and many of the fighters are said to be personally loyal to him. One former Wagner commander told the Guardian it was “unlikely” that many of the soldiers would join the regular Russian army.
“Wagner troops will not fight for the army,” he said, speaking on condition of anonymity. “It is either Wagner or nothing.”
What will this mean for Africa?
Prigozhin’s future will also have important implications for Africa, a continent where Wagner has steadily expanded its political, military and economic influence.
Wagner has an estimated 5,000 troops stationed across Africa, and companies linked to Prigozhin have signed security and military assistance contracts with the governments of the Central African Republic and Mali.
The Kremlin is also believed to have used the Wagner group in both of those countries to pull them into Russia’s orbit, much to the dismay of their former colonial power, France.
Wagner’s possible departure creates new uncertainties for the governments in Africa that have relied on the group for security, and could complicate Moscow’s geopolitical influence on the continent.
