The NFL’s new league year is fast approaching, and one major domino will center around Miles Sanders, and how much the running back can land on the open market.
Sanders made his first Pro Bowl, amassed 1,200+ rushing yards and 10+ touchdowns this season, and will look to land among the top-paid players at his position.
Sanders’ total guarantees and ability to potentially help reset the market to a hit recently when a reworked contract ensured running back Aaron Jones will return to the Green Bay Packers during the 2023 season.
Jones and the Packers agreed to a restructured deal that includes a $5 million pay cut and a conversion of his roster bonus into a signing bonus.
What does the new deal mean for Jones, the Packers, and more importantly, Miles Sanders going forward?
Comparing Jones to Sanders
While Sanders finally had his breakout season, Jones has been the model of consistency for years.
In 2023, Jones produced his third 1,000-yard rushing season in the past four years, totaling 1,121 yards and two touchdowns on 213 carries.
In addition, he caught 59 passes for 395 yards and five touchdowns, while splitting time with A.J. Dillon.
His 1,516 yards from scrimmage ranked ninth in the NFL and his 5.3-yard average ranked first among running backs with at least 150 carries, all better numbers than Sanders produced this season.
For his part, Sanders is one of only seven running backs to begin his career with three straight seasons of 750 rushing yards and a 4.5 average or better. The others are Jim Brown, Earl Campbell, Nick Chubb, Abner Haynes, Barry Sanders, and Gale Sayers.
Notable free agent running backs
Tony Pollard, 25, (Dallas Cowboys)
Miles Sanders, 25, (Philadelphia Eagles)
David Montgomery, 25, (Chicago Bears)
Kareem Hunt, 27, (Cleveland Browns)
Damien Harris, 26, (New England Patriots)
Jamaal Williams, 27, (Detroit Lions)
Devin Singletary, 25, (Buffalo Bills)
Rashaad Penny, 27, (Seattle Seahawks)
Saquon Barkley, 26, (New York Giants)
Did Jones reset the RB market in a negative way?
The Green Bay Packers added another void year to Aaron Jones’ restructured contract to maximize the savings on the salary cap in 2023.
Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel confirmed the addition of a void year in 2027, meaning Jones’ deal now has void years in 2025, 2026, and 2027.
Per Ken Ingalls, Jones gave up $5 million and the restructure slashed $5 million off Jones’ salary in 2023 and will end up saving the Packers $11.816 million on the salary cap this year.
Aaron Jones new reworked contract with the Packers
2023 Cash: $16M –> $11M
2023 Cap: $20.013M –> $8.197MTotal cap savings = $11.816M
Note: Packers could have just done a restructure to save $11.216M. Instead they shave $5M cash off the deal and get another $600K cap saved. pic.twitter.com/BecDTzCy2E
— Ken Ingalls – Packers Cap 💰 (@KenIngalls) February 17, 2023
Eagles contract approach to running backs
According to Spotrac, only the Bucs, 49ers, and Cardinals are paying out less money to the running back position going forward.
That number could increase if Leonard Fournette returns to Tampa next season.
The Eagles have benefited from a running back-by-committee approach over the past few years and the personnel could trend towards that way of playing regardless of Sanders getting a new deal.
In 2022, Sanders earned a base salary of $1,224,569, while carrying a cap hit of $1,704,156 and a dead cap value of $479,587.
Highest paid running backs for 2022
Per OVER The CAP
Player Team Cap Number Cash Spent
Ezekiel Elliott Cowboys $18,220,000 $12,400,000
Derrick Henry Titans $15,000,000 $12,000,000
Alvin Kamara Saints $14,500,000 $11,500,000
Christian McCaffrey Panthers $14,309,500 $8,600,000
Dalvin Cook Vikings $12,001,272 $8,900,000
Joe Mixon Bengals $11,420,588 $8,700,000
Aaron Jones Packers $9,000,000 $5,750,000
Kenyan Drake Raiders $8,250,000 $8,000,000
Saquon Barkley Giants $7,217,000 $7,217,000
Austin Ekeler Chargers $7,000,000 $5,500,000
Chris Carson Seahawks $6,425,000 $4,925,000
Kareem Hunt Browns $6,250,000 $6,250,000
Tarik Cohen Bears $5,750,000 $4,000,000
Nick Chubb Browns $5,213,059 $4,213,059
Nyheim Hines Colts $5,140,000 $3,640,000
Jamaal Williams Lions $4,625,000 $4,000,000
Gus Edwards Ravens $4,500,000 $3,250,000
Josh Jacobs Raiders $3,796,990 $2,122,281
Final outlook for Sanders
Using the franchise tag on Sanders would cost the Eagles between $12M-$16M, while a fair value extension would be less taxing on the salary cap.
From a production and value standpoint alone, Sanders’ first three years of work should get him a fair deal that averages somewhere in between the $7.0 million per year Austin Ekeler earns from the Chargers, and James Conner is getting from the Cardinals.
A monster 2022 season for Sanders could have forced Philadelphia into the $12 million per season that Nick Chubbs (Browns), Joe Mixon (Bengals), Derrick Henry (Titans), Aaron Jones (Packers), and Dalvin Cook (Vikings) all make.
With the Eagles retooling on defense, Howie Roseman will likely aim more for the 3 years, $18.5M that would put Sanders in the company of Hines and other dual-threat backs without breaking the bank.
That could be asking for a lot as well.
