The Falcons have emerged as a potential landing spot for Deshaun Watson. This comes as a shock to many because Atlanta just restructured Matt Ryan’s contact and the team has very little cap space to work with.
So how is a trade even possible?
Currently, Ryan has a tradeable base salary of just $8 million in 2022 and $20 million in 2023. This isn’t the area holding the Falcons back from making the trade, though. The area of concern is the amount of dead money Atlanta will take on from Ryan’s bonuses.
A trade involving the former MVP would see a dead cap hit of $55.5 million, which accounts for all of his remaining bonuses, including the voided years. Additionally, this would also cost the team $18 million in cap space as that is the difference between his 2022 cap hit ($36.6 million) and his dead money accounted for ($55.5 million) all at once. Ultimately, the cost to trade Matt Ryan is just below what the Falcons have available.
So, what about Deshaun Watson? Despite having a higher cap hit, it is much more easier for the Texans to trade Watson than it is for the Falcons to trade Ryan. The Texans would see a dead cap hit of $16.2 million (bonuses due over the remainder of his contract), while also accounting for a cap savings of $24 million (difference between dead money and 2022 cap hit).
If the Falcons were to trade for Watson, they would need to find someway to clear $53.8 million in cap space. This is to make up for the $18 million loss from trading Matt Ryan and taking in Watson’s $35 million salary, all of which is guaranteed in 2022. There is an option for the team to trade for Watson and restructure his deal, but Watson would have to approve since his 2022 salary is fully guaranteed.
Maybe a move home to Atlanta will entice the three-time Pro Bowler to take a restructured deal that pushes some of his guaranteed money back.
Taking into account Ryan’s restructured deal, Jake Matthews’ extension, and the release of Tyeler Davison, the Falcons have a number of options on the table to clear the required cap space.
Trading Grady Jarrett would be the first option. Then, Deion Jones would be the next player up for a possible trade as the Falcons would see an additional $9 million in cap relief. These two transactions could place Atlanta at the aforementioned $53.8 million mark to account for the loss of Ryan and to take on Watson’s $35 million salary.
Both players could also be on the table as part of a trade to Houston. Atlanta could free up even more cash by cutting Mike Davis and Kendall Sheffield.
I’m told tonight the compensation ask for a Deshaun Watson trade has not varied even with recent developments, so far. The #Texans are still seeking ‘5-6 premium assets’ to consummate a deal. A league source added, “they’ve remained firm but fair in discussions.”
— IG: JosinaAnderson (@JosinaAnderson) March 16, 2022
Another possibility is the Falcons don’t offer up Matt Ryan to the Texans, who have Davis Mills at QB, but they find a third team to get involved. The Colts present the best option as they have the need at QB and the necessary funds to consider a trade where the Falcons can offload some of the potential dead cap. However, in doing so, Atlanta would likely not get much in return other than cap savings.
Regardless, trading for Watson will cost the Falcons a lot, and could hamper their draft plans. Atlanta would probably have to send multiple first and second-round picks to Houston, with additional late-round picks added on. Considering Watson has a no-trade clause, there could also be a very slim chance that he forces the Texans to accept a deal with the Falcons, with whom he reached out to personally.
If Watson does find his way to Atlanta, there is a very good chance that the NFL will hand down a six-game suspension for player misconduct.
