There is a line the popular Aerosmith song Same Old Song and Dance that resonates really well in this situation.
“It’s the same old story. Same old song and dance, my friend.”
It feels like we’ve been talking about Danielle Hunter’s contract for a long time. A third-round pick in the 2015 NFL draft, Hunter signed a five-year, $72 million contract before the start of his fourth season in 2018. That deal secured Hunter a lucrative extension, but considering what he would have become, ended up not paying him anywhere close to market value.
Khalil Mack signed a record-breaking contract in September of 2018 worth $23.5 million per year over six seasons. That is nearly $10 million more per season than what Hunter received on his deal when their production and skill level is very similar.
With Hunter set to only make $4.9 million in 2023, his contract is once again a major topic of discussion. Let’s dive into what that extension could look like.
Past extensions
One of the first things you do when trying to predict a contract extension is to look at recent extensions and second contracts at the top of the market.
- Pittsburgh’s T.J. Watt: 4 years/$112.01 million
- Los Angeles Chargers’ Joey Bosa: 5 years/$135 million
- Cleveland’s Myles Garrett: 5 years/$125 million
- Los Angeles Chargers’ Khalil Mack: 6 years/$141 million
- Las Vegas’ Maxx Crosby: 4 years/$94 million
- Miami’s Bradley Chubb: 5 years/$110 million
- Tennessee’s Harold Landry: 5 years/$87.5 million
With Hunter being 29 years old, it’s important to also look at players on their third contract to see what players of a similar age are getting paid.
- Buffalo’s Von Miller: 6 years/$120 million
- Las Vegas’ Chandler Jones: 3 years/$51 million
- Cleveland’s Za’Darius Smith: 3 years/$42 million
When you look at the top of the market, Hunter seems to fit in around $20-24 million based on skill and talent. What makes things difficult is looking at Hunter’s age and injury history.
The three who got third contracts all have a complicated injury history. Miller has four injuries to his right knee, including two torn ACLs. Smith’s injury history is well documented and his back is the biggest issue. Jones has had multiple minor injuries, but a torn bicep in 2020 knocked him out for the season in week five.
What does his production warrant?
Hunter has been a tremendously productive player in his time with the Vikings. In playing 117 games, Hunter has 71.0 sacks (8th in NFL) along with 428 pressures per PFF (13th in NFL). Those are some excellent numbers, especially considering Hunter missed 27 games in that span.
Based solely on production, Hunter is a top-tier pass rusher, but his performance isn’t quite on the level of the top pass rushers. Players like Aaron Donald, Myles Garrett and Joey Bosa are on a different level than Hunter.
When you look at these numbers Hunter has produced, he has produced all of those in his prime. Once he hits 30, how long is he apt to stay in his prime? That will help determine what his contract will be.
How will Kwesi Adofo-Mensah approach an extension?
This is where things get tricky. Adofo-Mensah hasn’t signed anyone to a major contract yet. He has signed two players to three-year contracts: Za’Darius Smith and Josh Oliver. Smith’s was designed as a two-year deal with a dummy third year and Oliver’s is similar. The Vikings can get out of it for little cost in the same vein as Smith’s.
Two of the factors in signing players to shorter contracts are age and injury. You don’t often find premium talent at a young age hit the open market. In an article I wrote about Adofo-Mensah’s approach to contracts, flexibility will likely be key, as well as both age and injury history.
Flexibility in continuing to build this roster will continue to be a priority for this franchise in building the team, but that doesn’t mean Adofo-Mensah won’t sign longer-term deals. Players like Justin Jefferson and Christain Darrisaw are going to get at least three-year extensions and they will both have age and injury history on their side and not be viewed as a negative. Look for those contracts to be filled with movable money to make the Vikings as flexible as possible.
Hunter would immediately be the most talented player that Adofo-Mensah has signed to a contract in his tenure with the Vikings, but his injury history and age concerns make this discussion fascinating. Hunter fits all the criteria, which begs this question.
Will Adofo-Mensah be willing to pay market value for Hunter?
Projected contract extension
There are a lot of elements to consider here with Hunter. We have discussed his age and injury history extensively and those will be a major factor. How Adofo-Mensah parses that out will be fascinating.
When you look at things how they currently sit, Hunter has two void years on his contract worth a total of $11.24 million and only a $4.9 million base salary this year. Making a move this year will almost certainly give him a raise for the 2023 season, as it would be unlikely for him to play without one.
How many years the contract will be is a difficult projection. The best example we have is the Smith contract. Three years feels like the right amount, but they will likely tear up the current contract and start fresh to continue giving the Vikings salary cap flexibility moving forward. Being that Hunter is already a cornerstone of the franchise, they may choose to sign him to a longer term deal. Hunter is also a better player than Smith for a longer period of time, so the money will be more as well.
Regardless of how they choose to do it, Hunter will be playing the 2023 season on a new contract of some sort. and the contract will be very team-friendly in terms of being able to move money around.
Projection: Three years, $57 million with $35 million guaranteed and two void years
Other contract extension pieces
