Thousands of homes, shopping centres, hotels and a light rail stop are all possibilities for what could be Canberra's next town centre.
Thanks to a forecast population boom, Molonglo group centre is looking more likely to be classified as a town centre and an image is slowly emerging of what that might look like.
In February, the ACT government said it would lobby the National Capital Authority to amend the national capital plan to include Molonglo as Canberra's sixth town centre.
The commercial centre was originally planned to support 55,000 residents, but updated projections predict more than 70,000 people will live in the Molonglo Valley district by 2050.
By mid-2060, population is expected to surpass 86,000 people.
The government says a town centre classification would "raise the status of the Molonglo" and recognise it as the main commercial hub for the district while creating job opportunities for residents closer to their homes.
In practical terms, it could mean changing some sites from residential use only to mixed-use zoning, or reassigning land for community facilities. The maximum height of buildings permitted in the centre, currently 16 storeys in some areas, could also be increased.
It appears almost a sure thing and the relevant ACT government departments are certainly planning for a future with a sixth town centre.
Where will Molonglo town centre be built?
The government has released a request for tender for urban design and engineering services for the Molonglo commercial centre, a significant step forward in the development of the 97-hectare portion of land.
The land sits to the east of Denman Prospect, on the opposite side of John Gorton Drive, and has about five kilometres of Molonglo River frontage.
Current planning rules allow for 5100 dwellings in the centre, however this is likely to increase if the town centre status is approved.
The town centre will eventually service eight suburbs, including Coombs, Wright, Denman Prospect and Whitlam. Molonglo town centre would be the fifth suburb and another three suburbs are planned to be built over the next 20 years.
Construction has recently begun on the long-awaited Molonglo River Bridge which will connect the suburbs to the town centre.
Major retail, apartments in the plans
Simon Tennent, the development director for Molonglo at the Suburban Land Agency, said the first stage of the town centre is "pretty substantial".
The priority within stage one is the southern residential precinct, which will include about 750 homes in medium- to high-density developments.
He said the agency has "clear instructions to get moving" on this part of the project, to help boost housing supply in the ACT.
That shouldn't be an issue given the section is already serviced by power, water and sewage, Mr Tennent said.
The first stage also encompasses the commercial core of the town centre, which would include "super lots" to be developed with major supermarkets, department stores and retail.
Think a big Westfield-type development with floors of commercial and retail, then residential above it.
There's room for a "homemaker centre" similar to those seen in Fyshwick and Belconnen, as well as a library, community centre and bus layover. Hotels, a performing arts centre and indoor sports and recreation facilities could also be built.
Mr Tennent said there was a desire to make the town centre easily accessible.
"The old days of Canberra with surface car parks, where you jump out and walk 200 metres to the shops - we certainly won't be seeing them in the town centre," he said.
Instead, there'll be basement parking or podium car parks, which are usually above ground and enclosed in a building.
High school and town park in stage two
The second stage is the northern commercial and residential estate. Buildings in this part of the centre would be designed with a mix of ground-floor shops, such as florists, cafes and small businesses, with typical office spaces above.
A central town park is included in the plans on a site with "very high ecological values".
"We don't plan to do much around that other than create a nice urban environment and landscaped environment for people to interact with," Mr Tennent said.
A 9.3-hectare portion of land will also be set aside for a college and high school.
The plans are largely welcomed by the Molonglo Valley Community Forum, which was created after years of delays in creating the town centre.
However the group is concerned too much land has been allocated for the high school and college.
"We are in a very constrained environment, we are abutting areas of national environmental significance and there isn't a lot of land to allocate towards public open space," Molonglo Valley Community Forum convener Ryan Hemsley said.
The group is urging the Suburban Land Agency to consider allowing school buildings of up to six storeys in height, to provide more space for public playing fields.
Planning for a town centre
If the National Capital Authority approves the town centre classification, it is unlikely much will need to change in the way of planning.
Mr Tennent said based on the population figures that were released in early 2023, the agency was confident a town centre proposal would be warranted.
All the studies so far, including traffic and utilities, have been done with a future population of 70,000 people across Molonglo Valley in mind.
This would ensure the agency does not "lose any time in delivering the centre" Mr Tennent said.
Mr Hemsley said the community was grateful to see the town centre proposal was a priority for the ACT government.
"We've actually spoken with the National Capital Authority previously to determine their level of interest in pursuing a town centre in Molonglo and they've made clear to us that they'd be happy to consider a draft amendment from the ACT government," he said.
The ACT government's planning directorate is undertaking a "community needs assessment" for the commercial centre.
Mr Tennent said that was crucial to ensure the government delivers what the community might need in the future rather than try to "retrofit" a town centre.
"We are going to extraordinary lengths at the moment to try and think of everything," he said.
The community will also play a key role in determining what a future town centre might look like.
"We are probably around about four months away from reaching out to the community," Mr Tennent said.
Planning for future light rail
Thinking of everything means also planning for a light rail line to Molonglo.
"We're very committed to making sure it's a really high quality, urban design with fantastic public realm and community facilities but we've also got to make sure that the roads work and people can get around," Mr Tennent said.
He said it "would be silly" not to consider a light rail extension in the future.
"Now whether it's [built in] 20 years or 50 years, we're not quite sure," Mr Tennent said.
"But what we're ensuring is that John Gorton Drive doesn't need to be dug up in 20, 30 years time to then allow for the light rail to get through."
Days of auctions 'largely past us'
The land release strategy for the future town centre is still being finalised. However the days of "just auctioning sites and hoping for the best outcome are largely past us", Mr Tennent said.
"SLA is very much committed to creating great communities and great urban form and choosing developers that share that," he said.
It is likely most of the sites will be released via a tender process that will allow the agency to assess the developers and also include design requirements for particularly important sites.
"That does create a little bit more work for us ... but it does provide us more confidence with an outcome as opposed to just being left in the hands of a developer who may have a different vision or different motivation," Mr Tennent said.
