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With a market cap of $150.4 billion, The Progressive Corporation (PGR) is a leading U.S. insurance provider specializing in personal and commercial auto, property, and specialty insurance. Based in Mayfield Village, Ohio, it is a top independent agency writer for private passenger auto policies and the market leader in motorcycle coverage.
The insurance company's shares have outperformed the broader market over the past 52 weeks. PGR has increased 42.5% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has rallied 22.8%. Moreover, shares of PGR are up 8.3% on a YTD basis, compared to SPX’s 3.4% gain.
In addition, Progressive has also outpaced the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund’s (XLF) 32.7% return over the past 52 weeks and a 6.3% YTD gain.
Shares of Progressive recovered marginally on Jan. 29 due to its strong Q4 earnings report, which exceeded analysts' expectations with an EPS of $4.01. Revenue also surpassed forecasts, reaching $19.1 billion, reflecting strong underwriting performance and premium growth. Additionally, the company's combined ratio improved to 87.9%, indicating better profitability, while personal lines and direct auto growth reinforced investor confidence. However, concerns over catastrophe losses and a $140 million net realized loss on securities tempered the stock’s recovery, limiting significant gains.
For the current fiscal year, ending in December 2025, analysts expect PGR’s EPS to grow 2.8% year-over-year to $14.44. The company’s earnings surprise history is promising. It beat the consensus estimates in the last four quarters.
Among the 21 analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating is a “Moderate Buy.” That’s based on 13 “Strong Buy” ratings, two “Moderate Buys,” and six “Holds.”
On Jan. 30, Wells Fargo analyst Elyse Greenspan raised Progressive’s price target to $313 while maintaining an “Overweight” rating. The firm acknowledged the strong earnings beat but noted that policy-in-force (PIF) growth fell short of expectations, keeping shares relatively flat.
As of writing, PGR is trading below the mean price target of $284.78. The Street-high price target of $338 implies a potential upside of 29.4% from the current price levels.
