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C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (CHRW), founded in 1905 and headquartered in Eden Prairie, Minnesota, orchestrates global logistics with expertise in freight transportation and supply chain services. From truckloads to intermodal shipments and air freight, it connects industries with over 45,000 transportation partners. Its Robinson Fresh brand also delivers fresh produce to grocers and food service distributors worldwide. C.H. Robinson Worldwide’s market cap currently stands at $13 billion.
Shares of C.H. Robinson have returned 32.4%, exceeding the broader S&P 500 Index’s ($SPX) 30.4% rally. Plus, the stock is up 27.6% in 2024, outshining the SPX’s 23.1% rise on a YTD basis.
Zooming in further, CHRW stock has outperformed the ProShares Supply Chain Logistics ETF (SUPL). The exchange-traded fund has gained 9.9% over the past 52 weeks.
C.H. Robinson’s stock was cruising in 2024, buoyed by cost-cutting strategies and shareholder-friendly moves like a 1.6% dividend hike in August. Its Q3 earnings report on Oct. 30 was a bright spot, with revenue climbing 7% annually to $4.6 billion and adjusted EPS surging 45% to $1.28 - beating expectations despite a freight downturn. Returning $77.1 million to shareholders through dividends and buybacks underscored its commitment to value creation.
But even with these wins, the stock slipped 6% post-earnings. The freight market’s prolonged slump, marked by a 2.8% dip in cash freight shipment volume and a 3.5% decline in truckload demand, weighed heavily. Adding to the challenges, the company faced a $57 million loss from its planned European Surface Transportation business sale, straining SG&A costs.
Additionally, the road ahead looks bumpy as the company braces for a seasonally softer Q4, potential geopolitical headwinds, and declining ocean rates. The market took note of the mixed signals - solid Q3 performance but clouds on the horizon.
For the current fiscal year, ending in December, analysts expect C.H. Robinson’s EPS to grow 32.4% to $4.37. The company’s earnings surprise history is mixed. It beat the consensus estimate in three of the last four quarters while missing on one other occasion.
Among the 23 analysts covering CHRW stock, the consensus rating is a “Moderate Buy,” an upgrade from the “Hold” rating a month ago. The current rating is based on seven “Strong Buys”, 14 “Holds,” and two “Strong Sells.”
On Nov. 13, Barclays (BCS) raised the price target on CHRW to $95 from $85, keeping an “Underweight” rating. The move comes as transportation stocks gain momentum, fueled by whispers of lower U.S. corporate tax rates under Trump’s presidency. With market optimism rising and cyclical industrials back in favor, Barclays adjusted its targets across the sector, riding the wave of renewed confidence.
Although the stock currently trades above the mean price target of $110.05, the Street-high price target of $140 implies the stock could rally as much as 27.1%.
