SNP members will today vote on one of the biggest issues to be debated at this year’s annual conference – the party’s independence strategy.
A conference motion has been put forward by the SNP leadership outlining proposals for how a mandate for independence negotiations with the UK Government will be secured and what happens next.
However, First Minister Humza Yousaf has said he will now back an amendment to that plan, which changes the basis of a “win for independence” in the General Election.
Here, we take a detailed look at the different options for this element of the independence strategy which are on the agenda for debate:
Most seats for SNP at the General Election
Yousaf and SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn put forward the motion on independence strategy.
It states that if the SNP win the most seats at the General Election in Scotland, the Scottish Government will be “empowered” to begin negotiations with the UK Government on Scotland becoming an independent country.
According to recent polls, this could be achieved even if Labour make significant gains in Scotland – for example under the scenario suggested by a YouGov survey in August, which predicted Keir Starmer’s party could return 22 MPs with the SNP falling to 26.
However, critics says that this does not set a high enough “bar” to bring Westminster to the negotiating table.
Yousaf has since said he will back an amendment for a majority of seats instead to help party unity.
Majority of seats for SNP at the General Election
One of the amendments put forward to the motion, by the Deeside and Upper Donside branch – now backed by Yousaf – proposes that instead of “the most” seats, a mandate should be based on “a majority of seats”.
To achieve this, the SNP would have to win 29 of the 57 Scottish constituencies – the total after boundary changes.
The SNP have won a majority of seats at the past three Westminster elections and another YouGov poll carried out in September predicted the SNP would win 39 seats while Labour would return 11.
It has been argued the basis of using seats for the mandate is that this is how Westminster elections are contested – however, others have suggested votes should be used instead.
Majority of votes for pro-independence parties
The proposal for a mandate to be based on a majority of votes at the General Election in Scotland for pro-independence parties has been put forward by SNP MP Joanna Cherry and the SNP Trade Union Group.
Alba leader Alex Salmond has backed this plan, saying Westminster would dismiss a majority of seats as a mandate for negotiating independence, given it has repeatedly refused a referendum on that basis.
Whether this proposal will be put to members today is yet to be seen, with Cherry writing in The National on Friday that the party is not going to be able to win 50% or more of the vote – even with the votes of other pro-independence parties.
She added: “I am minded not to call for a vote on an amendment which would replace the winning of the most seats with the winning of the majority of votes as the basis for the mandate we seek. In the circumstances, I see no need to set a higher bar for us than other parties will set for themselves.”
Majority of votes for SNP
This was an idea originally proposed by former leader Nicola Sturgeon in her plans for a “de facto referendum” – that if more than half of voters backed the SNP, the party would use it as a mandate to begin negotiations on ending the Union.
An amendment suggesting this route should be taken has been put forward by SNP MP Pete Wishart and the Almond and Earn branch.
Wishart has argued it would not be “credible” or “realistic” for the SNP to “try and assert some sort of move towards independence if you’re not carrying the majority of people with you”.
While the SNP have won a majority of seats in the past three Westminster elections, it has only achieved 50% of the vote once – in 2015, when it took 56 out of Scotland’s 59 seats in a landslide victory.
