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Manchester Evening News
Manchester Evening News
Sport
Joe Bray

What Algeria need to qualify for AFCON last-16 and when Riyad Mahrez could return to Man City

If Algeria's task this week wasn't already crystal clear, the sight of Ghana exiting the Africa Cup of Nations to minnows Comoros on Tuesday will have focussed their minds.

Algeria, defending AFCON champions and one of the pre-tournament favourites, have just one point from their opening two group games, and are still yet to score, with one game remaining.

Riyad Mahrez's side are bottom of Group E ahead of their toughest group clash against Ivory Coast on Thursday, knowing they must win to keep their hopes of reaching the last-16 alive. If they don't win, Mahrez could be returning to Manchester earlier than expected.

Not only must Algeria win, but they will also be reliant on the result in the other group game between Equatorial Guinea and Sierra Leone, while a third-place finish could see them hoping for other results to go their way to scrape through as one of the best nations finishing third in their groups.

We've looked at the state of play going into Algeria's final game, what they need to qualify, and when Mahrez could return to City.

Algeria are currently bottom of the group with one point and -1 goal difference. Sierra Leone, who drew with Mahrez's side on the opening round of fixtures, have two points and a goal difference of zero, while Equatorial Guinea also have a neutral goal difference and currently occupy the second qualification spot on three points. Ivory Coast are top with four points and +1 goal difference.

If Algeria beat Ivory Coast, they will finish their group on four points, level with their opponents. In the case of two teams being level on points, the head-to-head result is taken into account, so Algeria would finish above Ivory Coast in that regard.

However, with Equatorial Guinea and Sierra Leone playing each other, one of those sides are guaranteed to finish above Algeria.

If Equatorial Guinea win or draw, they will go ahead of Algeria after beating them in the last game. If Sierra Leone win, they would be guaranteed to finish above Algeria on five points.

So a win for Algeria would be enough to progress in second place as they would finish above Ivory Coast but below Equatorial Guinea or Sierra Leone.

If Algeria drew with Ivory Coast, they would finish on two points and be knocked out of the competition at the first hurdle of their AFCON defence.

In order to finish third, they would need Sierra Leone to lose by two goals, as they would be level on points and head-to-head record, with overall goal difference the next deciding factor.

However, with only the four third-placed nations with the best record receiving a lifeline to the next round, Algeria already know two points won't be enough as four teams currently have three or more points.

So the task is simple for Algeria - win and qualify, with anything less marking an early exit just two-and-a-half years after winning the competition.

Should Algeria exit the competition, Mahrez could return for City as soon as Saturday's Premier League clash with Southampton, although that is incredibly unlikely given the two-day turnaround between games and requirement for a long-haul flight to return to England.

If Algeria do survive to fight another day, Algeria know they will face the winners of Group F, who wrap up their group later on Thursday. Gambia currently occupy top spot in that group, ahead of Mali on their head-to-head record. They will top the group by beating Tunisia in their last match, or simply by matching Mali's result. Mali must win and hope Gambia don't to finish top, while Tunisia could leapfrog both sides if they beat Gambia in their last match and Mali fail to beat Mauritania.

Say Algeria do reach the last-16, Mahrez would miss the Southampton game, as he is likely to regardless of Thursday's result, but could be back for the next fixture - the FA Cup clash with Fulham - on February 5 if Algeria fell at either the last-16 or quarter-final stage. That is due to the City's winter break next weekend.

If Algeria reach the semi-finals, they will therefore play either the third-place play-off or final on February 6, ruling him out of the cup game, but potentially opening up a return against Brentford on February 9 or at Norwich on February 12.

One City representative definitely through to the knockout stages in Cameroon is loanee Issa Kabore, who started all three group games for Burkina Faso. They qualified second in their group, and have set up a last-16 clash with Gabon. WIn that, and a meeting with Nigeria could await.

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