We’re almost into Week 4, and things are rough for the New Orleans Saints, which is reflected in the advanced metrics you’ll find orbiting around the NFL. Whether you prefer DVOA, EPA, ANY/A, or something else entirely, we’ve got it collected for you here. Let’s see where the Saitns rank among their peers on offense, defense, and at quarterback:
Overall
The Football Outsiders DVOA metric (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) has New Orleans all the way down at No. 27 across the league, with the No. 26 offense, No. 10 defense, and No. 32 special teams unit. Dennis Allen’s unit has held strong despite personnel overhaul in the offseason and a series of injuries to open the year, but the Saints offense has struggled while the kicking game is a surprising area of concern. Too many missed kicks, penalties, and return opportunities have caused their standing to plummet. When you organize all of the teams in the league into tiers based on their offensive and defensive EPA (Expected Points Added) per play, New Orleans is grouped up near the 1-2 San Francisco 49ers, the 1-1-1 Indianapolis Colts, and the 0-2-1 Houston Texans. Not the greatest company.
Offense
- DVOA: No. 26
- EPA/Play: No. 31
- Success rate: No. 14
- Dropback EPA: No. 27
- Dropback success rate: No. 16
- Rushing EPA: No. 26
- Rushing success rate: No. 9
The EPA (Expected Points Added) and success rate stats from rbsdm.com are reliable indicators of success in different phases, reflecting how effectively teams are moving the ball, converting first downs, and scoring points relative to down and distance.
So what does this tell us? The Saints passing game is very pedestrian, and it isn’t leading to many points on the scoreboard. They aren’t scoring effectively on the ground, either, but they are converting first downs and running well when they want to. They should arguably be putting a great emphasis on the run game until the issues in the aerial attack are sorted out, despite a couple of really untimely fumbles the last few weeks.
Defense
- DVOA: No. 10
- EPA/Play: No. 8
- Success rate: No. 4
- Dropback EPA: No. 12
- Dropback success rate: No. 5
- Rushing EPA: No. 4
- Rushing success rate: No. 8
So the Saints defense is seeing a ton of success against the pass, which checks out – they just aren’t winning with a strong pass rush and a ton of sacks like we’d rather see. Instead they’re winning with coverage and frequently forcing incomplete passes. If the secondary can just hold it together a little longer while the defensive line continues to heat up, they’ll be dangerous. That’s a tough sell with injuries to players on top of the depth chart (like Paulson Adebo and Marcus Maye) and rookies drafted to back them up (like Alontae Taylor). They’re being tested often.
As for the Saints run defense: it’s not the elite unit we’ve seen before, but it’s still strong, particularly in short-yardage situations. Opposing teams have run 17 times needing 1, 2, or 3 yards to convert a first down, and New Orleans stuffed them 9 times. Better tackling at the second level will help – Marcus Maye, Bradley Roby, and Pete Werner have each missed multiple tackles on running downs this season.
Jameis Winston
- Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement: No. 23
- Defense-adjusted Value Over Average: No. 23
- QBR: No. 26
- Effective yards: No. 21
- Completion %: No. 18
- Completion % Over Expectation: No. 10
- TD %: No. 22
- INT %: No. 29
- Sack %: No. 25
- Yards/Attempt: Tied-No. 9
- Adjusted Yards/Attempt: No. 23
- Net Yards/Attempt: No. 14
- Adjusted Net Yards/Attempt: No. 26
- EPA/Play: No. 25
- Success rate: No. 16
So that’s mediocre across the board. Winston’s volume stats are his best, but they plummet once you account for sacks and yards lost on them (as in Net Yards/Attempt) as well as touchdown passes and interceptions (for Adjusted Yards/Attempt), and the most comprehensive metric uses both factors to paint a really rough picture (see Adjusted Net Yards/Attempt). It reflects the many negative plays he’s been responsible for like taking sacks and throwing interceptions. That’s echoed in some of the other stats listed above. If there are any saving graces here, it’s that Winston has thrown the ball well into some tight windows and has completed some passes other quarterbacks would really struggle with – or blanch at even trying.
TL;DR: Winston isn’t the only problem for the Saints, but it’s getting difficult to win with him once you consider their other issues.
