China's ruling Communist Party Congress this weekend is the most important meeting in 40 years and appears set to concrete Xi Jinping's position as premier for life, according to former Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd.
Mr Rudd — now president of the Asia Society think tank — told ABC's 7.30 host, Sarah Ferguson, he believed a historic third term for Mr Xi, which was widely expected to be confirmed at the conference, would effectively make his leadership indefinite.
He said Mr Xi had built a "cult of personality not seen since Mao [Zedong]", the founding chairman of China's ruling party.
Mr Xi had also "pushed to one side" the doctrine of collective leadership, which became a governing principle of the party under Deng Xiaoping.
Asked how Mr Xi had been able to achieve this concentration of power, Mr Rudd said it was the consequence of Mr Xi's internal party purges, "the biggest we've seen since Mao, wave after wave of taking out anti-party cliques producing effectively a reign of terror".
"I think we should buckle up for the rest of the 20s and the 30s, because I think he's with us for the very long term," Mr Rudd warned.
Achilles heel
An ongoing slowdown of the Chinese economy represented a potential "Achilles heel" for Mr Xi, Mr Rudd said.
He pointed to shifts in China's demographics, including an ageing workforce and one of the lowest birth rates in Asia.
However, there was also an "ideological impediment" on the Chinese economy, resulting from Mr Xi moving the "centre of gravity" of Chinese economic policy towards the Marxist-Leninist left, Mr Rudd said.
He said that this shift had reduced private sector "enthusiasm" in China for long-term, fixed-capital investments.
Removing the impediment would require an "ideological U-turn" at the party conference, Mr Rudd said.
Taiwan timeline
Mr Rudd said Mr Xi's stated plan for a "rejuvenation" of China by 2049 — which he has said cannot be achieved without reunification with Taiwan — means the clock is now ticking on the question of Taiwan's status.
The former prime minister said his "own assessment" was that China would not move militarily against Taiwan in the 2020s, instead waiting until the 2030s.
By that time, he said, China might have improved its military power relative to the United States, further insulated its economy against potential sanctions, and Mr Xi would, likely, still be in power.
"He's got good genes. His mother's still alive at the age of 96," Mr Rudd said.
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