Labour's big lead in the polls is superficial and voters feel no "burning passion" for Sir Keir Starmer, Cabinet minister Mel Stride insisted on Wednesday as the Conservatives gird for another tricky by-election battle.
The by-election - likely in February - was forced in the constituency of Wellingborough after disgraced MP Peter Bone was unseated by voters in a recall petition.
The former minister has been sitting as an independent, having lost the Conservative whip after an inquiry found he had subjected a staff member to bullying and sexual misconduct.
Mr Bone, who denies the allegations, has held the seat for the Conservatives since 2005 and retained it at the 2019 election with a majority of 18,540.
That would normally make it safe for the Tories. But the party has suffered a string of bruising by-election defeats, seeing bigger majorities evaporate in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire on October 19.
Mr Stride, the work and pensions secretary in Rishi Sunak's cabinet, said it would be “very foolhardy” to predict the result now but stressed: "We’re going to fight for every single vote.
“Yes we have a fair bit of ground to make up but there is no strong burning passion for Keir Starmer or another Labour government," he told Times Radio.
"I accept that we are quite a long way behind in the polls,” he added, while insisting that Labour’s lead of nearly 20 points was “very wide but very thin”.
Labour came second to Mr Bone in 2019 and said the petition's result showed the constituency was "ready for change".
"The Conservative Party has presided over 13 years of failure, not least in the ‘professionalism, integrity and accountability at all levels’ that Rishi Sunak promised," Labour chairwoman Anneliese Dodds said.
"The people of Wellingborough now have the opportunity to vote for a fresh start with (Labour candidate) Gen Kitchen and the Labour Party. They deserve an MP firmly on their side and focused on their priorities."
The Government also lost the previously rock-solid Conservative seats of Selby and Ainsty and Somerton and Frome in July, and only just held on to Boris Johnson’s old seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip in west London.
Voters punished Mr Sunak’s party as they delivered their verdict on the cost-of-living crisis, record NHS waiting lists and boatloads of migrants crossing the Channel.
All of those issues figured among the Prime Minister’s five policy pledges for this year. He can point to a successful battle to halve inflation, with the latest data on Wednesday showing consumer prices fell to 3.9% in November. But the PM has recorded little progress elsewhere, with his Rwanda deportation plan in trouble, and some Tory mavericks are even calling for a fresh leadership vote.
Constituents in Wellingborough had until 5pm on Tuesday to add their names to the recall petition, which was sparked when Mr Bone was suspended from the Commons for six weeks owing to the inquiry's damning conclusions.
Ten per cent of eligible voters in the Northamptonshire constituency, or 7,904 people, had to sign the petition in order to eject Mr Bone and force a by-election.
North Northamponshire Council said on Tuesday evening that the total number who signed the petition was 10,505, or 13.2 per cent, meaning that the petition was successful.
Mr Bone said after the result was announced that the petition "came about as a result of an inquiry into alleged bullying and misconduct towards an ex-employee which was alleged to have occurred more than 10 years ago".
"These allegations are totally untrue and without foundation."
He said 68,897 people "chose not to sign the petition which represents 86.8 per cent of the electorate", adding: "I will have more to say on these matters in the new year."
Mr Bone could in theory stand again, but would have to do so most likely as an independent deprived of party support.
The Independent Expert Panel, a parliamentary watchdog, upheld an earlier investigation that Mr Bone had indecently exposed himself to the complainant in the bathroom of a hotel room during a work trip to Madrid.
The IEP found Mr Bone had “verbally belittled, ridiculed, abused and humiliated” an employee and “repeatedly physically struck and threw things” at him.
As well as being found to have indecently exposed himself, the MP also imposed an “unwanted and humiliating ritual” on the man by forcing him to sit with his hands in his lap when the politician was unhappy with his work, the investigation found.
The complainant at the centre of the case told the BBC it was a “horrid, brutal, dark experience that left me a broken shell of the young man I once was”.
