As these things usually are, it will be decided with hindsight. If the Australian men’s team does any less than reach the 50-over World Cup final this November, the players will be described as the old stagers who hung on for one tournament too many. If they challenge for the trophy, it will be described as the value of experience and big-match temperament. Nobody who writes these things will be concerned about how close they were to writing the other. Neat stories are the easiest to tell.
However it goes, Australia’s selectors have chosen consistency and stability as their guiding principles. Seven of the likely best XI at this year’s tournament were in the 2015 World Cup squad: David Warner, Steve Smith, Glenn Maxwell, Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood played in the winning final while Mitchell Marsh and Pat Cummins got medals from the bench. Throw in Marnus Labuschagne, Cameron Green and Alex Carey after Travis Head returns from injury and you could have a team with 10 Test players from this year’s Ashes. England, by contrast, have a maximum of six.