In our weekly Air Yards Breakdown, we’ll take a look at who led the NFL in this category and also go one step further. Air yards can be further split into “prayer yards.” Prayer yards are just what they sound like—air yards on passes that are deemed uncatchable. In other words, targets that the receiver doesn’t have a prayer of catching. Prayer yards lead to a player’s boom-bust potential.
Sources for all data can be found at the end of the article.
On to Week 7:
Week 6 Air Yards Leaderboard pic.twitter.com/wsbCJp5nY5
— Dan Falkenheim (@thefalkon) October 19, 2023
Week 6 Summary
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Drake London (WR, ATL) is Heating Up
The Falcons ranked dead last with a 36.8% dropback rate through the first two weeks. Since then, Atlanta has lived in a different world and now ranks 10th with a 49.6% dropback rate from Weeks 3-6. Quietly, London has garnered 90-plus air yards in three consecutive games for just the second time in his career. His 21.5 PPR points and 132 air yards against Washington were both the second-highest of his career, too.
As noted in last week’s breakdown, quarterback Desmond Ridder has helped. Of London’s air yards, 76.7% have been catchable during his last two games compared to 56.7% in prior weeks. Atlanta won’t always rank in the top half of the league in pass attempts on a week-to-week basis, but Arthur Smith’s willingness to throw is a fantasy improvement for Falcons receivers.
Baker Mayfield (QB, TB) Near Misses
Prior to Week 6, no team lived on slim margins quite like the Bucs: Tampa had the best EPA per play on third down (0.346) and the ninth-worst EPA per play on first and second down (-0.112). Luck turned against them on Sunday, as Mayfield had the highest aDOT (11.7 yards) but only about a third of his air yards were catchable.
Mayfield missed speedy rookie Trey Palmer on a 50-yard bomb and fired another 34-yard shot just past Palmer’s grasp. Those two targets accounted for 54% of Palmer’s 154 air yards, fifth-highest in Week 6. Mayfield also had a pair of desperation heaves to Mike Evans (127 total air yards, 16th) late in the fourth quarter. He has performed well this year, but his pass catchers’ ceiling potential might be limited with matchups against the Falcons and Bills on deck.
Derek Carr (QB, WR) Struggles to Throw Deep Down the Field
Through six weeks, Carr has thrown the most passes 20 or more yards down the field but ranks just 25th in completion percentage (29.7%) out of 36 qualified quarterbacks on those throws. On Sunday, Carr completed just two of his 11 deep throws, both to Rashid Shaheed. He reeled in a 34-yard touchdown deep down the middle late in the first quarter and made a monstrous grab over Texans vet Steven Nelson for a 51-yard gain.
Carr’s connection with Chris Olave hasn’t been as strong, and none of Carr’s three deep balls were particularly close. (He threw a 42-yard end zone shot to Olave into double coverage, missed high on a crosser and overthrew Olave on another 24-yard end zone attempt.) Hence why Olave has the most prayer yards so far.
Week 7 Lookahead
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Help Could Be On the Way for Marquise Brown (WR,ARI)
Through six weeks, Marquise Brown has the fifth-most air yards (702) and the sixth-most targets 20-or-more yards down the field (12). Only 42% of his air yards have been catchable, though, explaining why he hasn’t broken out with a true difference-making week. The prayer yards portion of Brown’s profile caps his upside, as it did against the Rams with quarterback Joshua Dobbs struggling with ball placement on two potential deep touchdowns.
On Wednesday, the Cardinals removed Kyler Murray from the physically unable to perform list, clearing the way for a potential return sooner rather than later. Between 2019-22, Murray’s 39.1% completion percentage on deep throws ranked 10th among qualified quarterbacks and would be an improvement over Dobbs. (Dobbs’s 25.9% deep throw accuracy is the sixth-worst this season.) While Murray will likely need to work toward full health, the Oklahoma duo offers fun late-season potential.
Post-Injury Landscapes Come Into Focus
After injuries to top wideouts Justin Jefferson (WR, MIN) and Mike Williams (WR, LAC), Week 6 offered the first glimpse of what to expect in their absences. Rookie wideout Jordan Addison had a 100% route participation rate for the first time this season as the Vikings didn’t change much from a personnel standpoint. (Minnesota ran 11 personnel 66% of the time before icing the game in the final two minutes, matching their utilization from Weeks 1-5.) Yet, the Vikings offense struggled. No receiver topped 70 air yards, and Addison dropped a 33-yard go ball. A Monday night matchup against the 49ers won’t do this offense any favors.
In Los Angeles, Keenan Allen topped 100 air yards for the third time this season and had a massive 53% team air yards share. Joshua Palmer wasn’t too far behind, eclipsing 80 air yards and finishing with a 35% team air yards share. Both Allen and Palmer benefitted from a slight change in playcalling, as the Chargers passed out of 12 personnel 79% of the time vs. 53% of the time in Weeks 1-4.
Beyond that, there was no post-bye rookie bump in sight for Quentin Johnston. He only ran a route on 48% of the team’s dropbacks, had nine total air yards and, to make matters worse, he was pushed off his spot on the game-ending interception. Even practice squad player Keelan Doss played over Johnston in spots. In fewer words: Not great, Bob. There’s a chance the Chargers newfound inclination to pass out of two tight end looks was a product of facing the Cowboys defense, leaving the faintest of lights on for Johnston in a potential shootout against the Chiefs.
Jameson Williams (WR, DET) Begins to Flash
Williams doesn’t quite have the same every-down role as someone like Shaheed. He did reel in a 45-yard moon ball from Jared Goff, putting the Lions up 17-6 and essentially sealing a win, but he only ran nine routes. Williams has seen targets of 7, -2, -2, 8, 18 and 44 air yards in two games since returning from a gambling suspension, and his limited usage will be his biggest roadblock to more consistency. The Lions have played three-or-more wide receivers on the field at the eighth-lowest rate (58.4%) in the NFL, meaning Williams needs to either supplant Josh Reynolds or consolidate routes from Kalif Raymond and Marvin Jones. The latter appears more likely in the short term.
It’s easy to get caught up in utilization metrics and miss how Williams’s speed/route running combination is showing up on film. He’s an intriguing buy candidate for managers who can afford to be patient and are willing to bet on Williams seeing more playing time down the stretch.
Quick Prayer Yards Notes
Week 6 Prayer Yards Leaderboard pic.twitter.com/cfy5qOGiQG
— Dan Falkenheim (@thefalkon) October 19, 2023
- DeVonta Smith (WR, PHI) had the sixth-most prayer yards (81) as quarterback Jalen Hurts looked human against the Jets. The Eagles passing game hasn’t clicked as consistently as last year, but Smith has a chance to rebound against the Dolphins and Commanders in the next two weeks.
- Jaylen Waddle (WR, MIA) topped 90 air yards for the first time this season. While 64 prayer yards might be disappointing, 46 of those prayer yards came on a winnable downfield shot. Nine-plus targets in back-to-back weeks is a step in the right direction.
- Sam LaPorta (TE, DET) had a ho-hum 3.6 PPR points in Week 6, but 101 total air yards is elite for a tight end. Continue to plug and play.
