In our weekly Air Yards Breakdown, we’ll take a look at who led the NFL in this category and also go one step further. Air yards can be further split into “prayer yards.” Prayer yards are just what they sound like—air yards on passes that are deemed uncatchable. In other words, targets that the receiver doesn’t have a prayer of catching. Prayer yards lead to a player’s boom-bust potential.
Sources for all data can be found at the end of the article.
On to Week 6:
Week 5 Air Yards Leaderboard
— Dan Falkenheim (@thefalkon) October 12, 2023
👑 George Pickens
Cooper Kupp 🤝 Puka Nacua
🙏 Brandin Cooks pic.twitter.com/8B4dBuGcej
Week 5 Summary
Brad Mills/USA TODAY Sports
DJ Moore (WR, CHI) Dominates Commanders Defense
Sensing a trend? In back-to-back weeks, Washington’s defense surrendered monstrous performances to the opposing offense’s top wide receiver. Moore’s 230 receiving yards were the second-highest by a Bears wideout and he got to his historic performance in a couple of different ways. Moore’s three scores came on a wide open 20-yard end zone shot, an impressive contested catch and a game-sealing 56-yard touchdown with 48 yards after the catch (YAC). He had 115 air yards—17th-most in Week 5—and added a Tyreek Hill-esque 142 yards after the catch.
Do you think Chicago had a plan?
D.J. Moore gained 221 of his 230 yards on hitches and go routes, the most yards on those two routes in a game over the last six seasons.
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) October 6, 2023
Moore recorded +141 receiving yards over expected, the 2nd-most in a game since 2018.
Powered by @awscloud pic.twitter.com/njVTYygtBv
Beyond Moore, Justin Fields and the Bears offense took a step in the right direction against Washington. That will only help Moore, who has run hot on efficiency through five weeks.
National Tight Ends Day Arrives Early
The Eagles made a point to get Dallas Goedert involved early and often. He tallied four catches for 45 yards and a touchdown on the Eagles opening drive and finished with 117 yards, becoming the first tight end in 2023 to cross 100 receiving yards. Quarterback Jalen Hurts threw a dime on Goedert’s only target above 10 air yards. Goedert only had the 45th-most air yards (64), but it didn’t matter. Goedert, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and D’Andre Swift all have high ceiling games in their range of outcomes on a potent Eagles offense.
Many shifted their eyes to backup Taylor Heinicke after Desmond Ridder’s poor Week 4 performance, but Week 5 was a different story. Ridder had his best game as a starter: 67.9% of his air yards were catchable, a stark improvement from 49.0% during the first four weeks. As a result, Kyle Pitts finally had a Top 12 week with 15.7 PPR points and his 125 air yards ranked 12th in the NFL. A word of caution: Pitts looks like he’s still working back to his full athletic potential after suffering a season-ending MCL injury last year.
Darren Waller (TE, NYG) wasn’t far behind Pitts, totaling 116 air yards on 11 targets. He had a near-miss on a 23-yard touchdown grab. His increased usage was a welcome sign, but the problem for Waller is that the Giants offense hasn’t been good enough. The Giants have had the fourth-fewest red zone trips (11), limiting Waller’s scoring opportunities.
Clarity for the Rams Receiving Corps
With Cooper Kupp back in the lineup, the roles for Rams receivers solidified. Puka Nacua, Tutu Atwell and Kupp all ran a route on at least 95% of Matthew Stafford’s dropbacks, while Van Jefferson and Ben Skowronek ran one route each. (Two days later, the Rams dealt Jefferson to the Falcons.) Nacua won on a gorgeous 22-yard ball from Stafford, and Kupp soaked up 12 targets and looked like he hadn't lost a step. Atwell just missed on a potential 63-yard touchdown, too.
Even though the Rams offense stumbled against the Eagles in the second half, Stafford has played well enough to support multiple fantasy contributors. Kupp’s 137 air yards ranked eighth in Week 5 and Nacua’s 126 air yards ranked 11th.
Week 6 Lookahead
Mitch Stringer/USA TODAY Sports
Zay Flowers (WR, BAL) is the Only Ravens Wideout Worth Chasing
The Ravens dropped a winnable game against the Steelers. Literally. Baltimore had at least seven drops and lost almost a touchdown’s worth of EPA on those drops. Flowers was as culpable as anyone: He had a brutal drop on a wide-open 21-yard throw and tripped and missed a 40-yard grab. But, maybe there’s a silver lining.
Flowers was the only Baltimore receiver with a 100% route participation rate, a positive sign considering Nelson Agholor, Rashod Bateman and Odell Beckham Jr. all rotated behind him. His average depth of target (aDOT) exploded to 15.3 yards in Week 5 after averaging a shallow 6.4 yards in the first four weeks. Lamar Jackson has quietly performed well as a passer despite not having the box score to show for it, and Flowers should have opportunities to flash Top 24 WR potential against the Titans, Lions, Cardinals and Seahawks in his next four games.
Don’t Panic (Yet) About the Cowboys Passing Attack
Throughout the first four weeks, the Cowboys had the lowest aDOT (5.6 yards) in the NFL under the offense’s new “Texas Coast” passing system. Head coach Mike McCarthy and company switched their approach against the 49ers’ swarming defense and averaged the highest aDOT (11.7 yards) in Week 5, but it didn’t come close to working, either. CeeDee Lamb was both visually and vocally frustrated after seeing fewer than eight targets for the fourth time this season.
The Cowboys offense has run the fewest plays in neutral game scripts, leading to a weird start and partially explaining why Lamb ranks 53rd in total air yards (282). Where does Dallas go from here? Right into the highest over under (50.5) and the fifth-highest implied team total (26.5) against the Chargers in Week 6, followed by a Week 7 bye and another plus-matchup against the Rams in Week 8. This three-week stretch is as good an opportunity as any for Dak Prescott to right the ship and for the Cowboys to find their offensive identity.
Justin Jefferson’s Absence Creates Opportunity for Jordan Addison
Jefferson will miss at least the next four weeks after suffering a right hamstring strain, and the star wide receiver vacates about 10 targets and 111 air yards per game. That void can’t be filled by any one player, especially when the passing game has been designed around how much defensive attention Jefferson receives.
While fifth-year wideout Brandon Powell out-targeted Addison after Jefferson left last week, Addison benefits the most from a volume perspective. He ran a route on 82% of the team’s dropbacks in Week 5, only the second time he cleared 80% this season, and has done most of his damage on two deep shots this season. More short and intermediate looks would help raise Addison’s weekly floor.
Quick Prayer Yards Notes
Week 5 Prayer Yards Leaderboard
— Dan Falkenheim (@thefalkon) October 12, 2023
🐻 Justin Fields and Darnell Mooney are struggling to get on the same page
🫂 Nothing worked for the Cowboys
🙏 As expected, Christian Watson returns and receives multiple deep targets. pic.twitter.com/ijKhsMcfxo
- Brandin Cooks and Michael Gallup combined for 190 prayer yards, largely a result of Dallas’ shift in offensive approach.
- Darnell Mooney (WR, CHI) did have some targets that were catchable, but he and Fields have been unable to get on the same page.
- Christian Watson (WR, GB) returned to a full helping of snaps and saw four targets of 30-plus air yards.
