In our weekly Air Yards Breakdown, we’ll take a look at who led the NFL in this category and also go one step further. Air yards can be further split into “prayer yards.” Prayer yards are just what they sound like—air yards on passes that are deemed uncatchable. In other words, targets that the receiver doesn’t have a prayer of catching. Prayer yards lead to a player’s boom-bust potential.
Sources for all data can be found at the end of the article.
On to Week 5:
Week 4 Air Yards Leaderboard
— Dan Falkenheim (@thefalkon) October 5, 2023
👑 A.J. Brown
🙏 Chris Olave
✨ A Place in This (Fantasy Football) World for Garrett Wilson pic.twitter.com/bcu5xDF4of
Week 4 Summary
Bill Streicher/USA TODAY Sports
A.J. Brown (WR, PHI) Reasserts Himself as the Eagles 1A
Maybe the Commanders should’ve given cornerback Emmanuel Forbes some relief: Brown toasted the rookie for 147 of his 175 receiving yards and finished as the WR1 behind a league-high 212 air yards. The Eagles have a true 1A-1B situation between Brown and DeVonta Smith. Through four weeks, Brown is second in the NFL in air yards (559), fifth in targets (43) and sixth in receptions (29). In those same categories, Smith is 13th, 30th and 16th. Both receivers are exceptional, but Brown’s performance on Sunday is a reminder of why it’s fair to call him a top five wideout in the NFL.
Slivers of Hope for Garrett Wilson
The Jets did something they rarely do: put the football in Zach Wilson’s hands and ask him to win the football game through the air. New York dropped back to pass 7.6% more often than expected—the highest rate of Wilson’s career. He threw the ninth-most air yards (291) of his career, and Garrett Wilson saw 42.3% of those air yards on 14 targets. There was a place in this (fantasy football) world for both Wilsons with Taylor Swift in the building.
If the Jets newfound willingness to pass wasn’t a product of playing the Chiefs, there’s hope for Garrett Wilson’s season. There will still be hiccups: Zach Wilson missed his star wideout on a potential 29-yard touchdown and misfired on a deep pass over the middle, leaving an unrealized 51-yard catch-and-run score on the field. The Jets have a chance to prove Sunday night’s performance wasn’t a mirage against the Broncos woeful pass defense in Week 5.
The Panthers and Saints Were At the Wrong End of the Air Yards Spectrum
Both Carolina and New Orleans are stuck in an offensive rut. Panthers QB Bryce Young returned from a right ankle injury and the results were less than inspiring. He finished Week 4 with the second-lowest average depth of target (3.69 yards), due in large part to an obscene amount of bubble screens.
While it’s correct to say C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson have been more impressive, Young’s situation has been more challenging. The Panthers have struggled to meld Frank Reich and Thomas Brown’s different coaching philosophies, a problem made worse by a lack of talent at wide receiver and the team’s shaky offensive line. Carolina ranks 15th and 32nd in ESPN’s pass rush and run block win rate metrics, respectively, and won’t receive a respite against a stout Lions run defense. It will fall on Young to take advantage of Detroit’s banged up secondary.
Elsewhere in the NFC South, New Orleans quarterback Derek Carr played through a sprained AC joint in his throwing shoulder and led the NFL with the most passes traveling less than five yards down the field (21) in Week 4. This chart explains how Alvin Kamara winds up with just 34 receiving yards on 13 receptions:
Round 2: Guess that Next Gen Pass Chart! https://t.co/tUHvcbJ8LC pic.twitter.com/Vref3kaw8j
— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) October 2, 2023
Beyond Carr’s shoulder, problems abound. Kamara said it’s time for “tough conversations” about the offense and veteran Saints reporters Nick Underhill and Mike Triplett squared criticisms at offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael Jr.’s playcalling. The offensive line, which ranks 25th in pass block win rate, showed signs of life in Week 4, leaving room for some hope. The Saints face the second easiest strength of schedule the rest of the way, and better days should be ahead for Chris Olave.
Week 5 Lookahead
Trust Anthony Richardson
Three quarterback options are presented to you:
- Option A: 51.9% completion percentage, 6.9 yards per passing attempt, 3.8% TD rate, 2.3% INT rate and is averaging 5.9 yards per carry and 11.3 fantasy points on the ground.
- Option B: 56.9% completion percentage, 6.7 yards per passing attempt, 4.2% TD rate, 1.4% INT rate and is averaging 5.7 yards per carry and 12.4 fantasy points on the ground.
Which would you choose? Option A is Jalen Hurts in his four starts during his rookie season. Option B is Anthony Richardson through three starts this year. Former Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen, who coached Hurts in 2021 and ‘22, has been exactly what Richardson has needed to begin his career.
Steichen opened up Indianapolis’ passing game while in comeback mode on Sunday, too. Through Week 2, Richardson had the second-lowest average depth of target (aDOT) at 4.94 yards. That flipped against the Rams: The Colts rookie QB had the third-highest aDOT at 11.5 yards. He’s unlocking his toolshed, whether he’s completing a jump ball pass while in Aaron Donald’s grasp or firing a bullet to Josh Downs for 30 yards.
While he has struggled with accuracy on short throws, Richardson has been the konami code quarterback drafters were looking for. Jonathan Taylor’s potential return should help the Colts become more efficient on the ground and deliver Richardson into the red zone more often.
Romeo Doubs (WR, GB) Can Remain a Viable Flex Option
After four weeks, Doubs has the 18th-most air yards (374), the 17th-most catchable air yards (228) and the 16th most PPR points (60.4). Don’t sell the second-year wideout short: those are WR2 numbers. Doubs has looked the part as a bigger-bodied, possession receiver and has the third-most red zone targets (7) so far.
Expectations should be tempered, as those numbers will inevitably decrease when wideout Christian Watson and running back Aaron Jones return to full health. Green Bay is also the sixth-slowest team by plays per game and face injury issues on the offensive line. There’s room for Doubs to remain on the flex radar, though. (Doubs and Watson each had four targets when they were on the field together in Week 4.) The Packers will face the Broncos, Vikings, Rams, Steelers and Chargers—all beatable pass defenses—after their Week 6 bye.
Terry McLaurin (WR, WAS) In Line for Favorable Matchup Against Chicago
In an explosive, back-and-forth contest against the Eagles, McLaurin received a season-high 121 air yards and finished with a season-best 16.6 PPR points. The opportunity should continue to be there for McLaurin, as Washington ranks second in dropback rate over expectation and sixth in early-down pass rate through four weeks. He’ll face a Bears secondary starting two rookie cornerbacks and without DB Jaylon Johnson and safety Eddie Jackson.
Quick Prayer Yards Notes
Week 4 Prayer Yards Leaderboard pic.twitter.com/PS3FGujU2o
— Dan Falkenheim (@thefalkon) October 5, 2023
- Amari Cooper (WR, CLE) had 111 prayer yards against the Ravens, but that can be chalked up to fifth-round rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson filling in for an injured Deshaun Watson.
- Desmond Ridder’s prayer yards rate (50.7%) is the fifth-worst in the NFL, making life difficult for Falcons pass catchers in a low-volume offense.
- Derek Carr and Jameis Winston threw a pair of no-hope, 30-plus-yard balls to Rashid Shaheed and Chris Olave. Carr has the sixth-most passing attempts of 20 or more air yards, so variance should swing Olave’s way from time to time.
