In my Week 7 Dynasty Stock Watch last season, I recommended to hold Tua Tagovailoa if your team was in win-now mode and also to buy him if you were in a rebuild or superflex. At that time in mid-October 2021, Tagovailoa's dynasty value was essentially at an all-time low. He was adequate in 2020 and to that point in 2021, he hadn't done much. His 2021 season wasn't anything special either, as he finished as the 24th-best QB in fantasy points per game.
Now, it’s entirely possible that Tua’s monster Week 2 game against the Ravens could be the best game of his career and that’s giving him the benefit of the doubt that he could play another 10 years. Not many quarterbacks throw six touchdowns or go for 469 yards in a game—let alone in the same game. Rather than pat myself on the back or pull the “I told you so” card for my call, it’s better to emphasize that all players have peaks and valleys. This is likely the mountaintop and you should enjoy the view while it lasts if you’re a Tagovailoa manager.
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However, you would be foolish to ignore trade offers or not dangle the Dolphins‘ quarterback as trade bait. Could Tua have found his stride and ascend into NFL superstardom? Move beyond his QB2 upside and move into the QB1 stud conversation? Anything’s possible. I’d at the very least hear what other managers have to say and evaluate my options. If Tua is my second or third QB and I’ve got an elite quarterback like Josh Allen or Justin Herbert, it may be time to pull the trigger on a trade to flip Tagovailoa for a RB2 like Cam Akers or WR3 like Rondale Moore. In a superflex, Tua could even net you a stud like Austin Ekeler.
The point is that after the high wears off from a player’s breakout game, be rational and assess your roster with some semblance of objectivity. Use these moments to improve your team, not just gloat in your league chat—OK, a little gloating is cool too. Let’s ring the dynasty stock watch opening bell:
QB Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Brady in a dynasty article? What the heck is going on? Well, the golden boy is certainly playing like a 45-year-old, isn’t he? Y'know, that's an unfair oversimplification. The team isn't playing up to his level.
Brady has 402 yards for two touchdowns and one INT and yet, the Buccaneers are atop the NFC South at 2-0.
To be fair, Brady had five games last season with zero or one touchdown pass, so it’s not like he was faultless then either. That’s the thing, though. He also had six games with four or more passing touchdowns. I would love to test the waters with your league’s Brady manager if their team is off to a bad start. That win-now manager may already be worried about a possible transition to a rebuild next season since Brady's numbers aren't good and that's trade leverage.
Will Brady toss 43 touchdowns like he did a year ago? That’s unlikely. I feel his 2022 outcome certainly looks like a step down, but I’m not panicking. Not yet. Not at all.
I wouldn’t mind moving on in a superflex league though. And the added value bump for all quarterbacks is appealing. Anything can happen over the next few months, so no team is really out of it yet. But what if Brady falters for another week or two? I don’t want to be left holding the bag when retirement does come. And, yes, he will retire eventually and that so-so future pick trade potential will evaporate. In one-QB leagues, I'm holding very firm and breaking tablets shoulder-to-shoulder with Brady.
Price check: 2024 early 3rd
Win-now: Hold
Rebuild: Hold
Superflex: Sell
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WR CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys
It seems like every fantasy WR1 is on top of their game and playing at a high level. I guess that’s the point of being elite, but I’m just trying to illustrate that Lamb, who is (was?) in that conversation … Should we be worried yet? A little alarmist, but the numbers aren’t pretty. He had a decent Week 2 against the Bengals with seven catches for 75 yards on 11 targets. His 40.9% catch rate so far is atrocious. His yards per target (4.7) is bad even he is played fullback. That Week 1 game really set him back. Michael Gallup should return in Week 3 and maybe that will have an effect to take some pressure off of him, along with the emergence of Noah Brown.
Sometimes all you can do is go down with the ship. I don’t think you can in good faith trade Lamb unless someone is willing to pay close to full preseason value for him. Efficiency is typically a running back stat, but the same applies to receivers and to Lamb. He’s getting targets and will continue to see them at a high clip. The catch rate will inevitably bounce back. Plus, we have to remember we have to remember we’re ideally in this for the long haul. Lamb may have a new head coach next year. Dak Prescott will eventually regress to the mean and stop getting hurt. One good game and the narrative can flip back in his favor. My biggest concern is he just seems like a very hot-and-cold player and that’s something more indicative of receivers a couple tiers below where most of us had him. For now, it’s a begrudging hold. I’m gritting my teeth.
Price check: 2023 early 1st and 2023 4th
Win-now: Hold
Rebuild: Hold
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QB Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers
Like I said with Lamb, sometimes you have to go down with the ship. Losing Lance for all of the 2022 season is brutal. I can only hope for most Lance dynasty managers, they maybe already had Jimmy Garoppolo as they were anticipating Lance coming on last year. Or they have another decent quarterback from last season as they waited patiently for Lance to emerge.
Even though I wasn't that on him coming into the year, this injury is a big buying opportunity if you can stomach the loss of immediate impact. One of the most obvious rebuild buys in the history of rebuild buys. I still don't believe I've seen enough to Lance to provide much unique analysis. I like the way he stands and delivers the ball. On paper, it's basically all above average or better potential—from arm talent, size, speed, strength, you name it. It's just putting it all together with the coaching staff to speed up his ability to read defenses and that's just something he needs to learn from live reps.
The tricky question is: If you’re in win-now mode, how do you proceed? I don’t mind trading him. I would love to hold him, but if he was my third QB then why not move on? If I’ve got one top-12 QB, another top-24 QB and Lance was my golden ticket, why not make a run at a RB2 like James Robinson? If Lance was my QB2 and I’ve got to add someone like Jacoby Brissett or Joe Flacco off the waiver wire to shore up my backup QB spot, then you’re likely stuck with Lance because you’d be forced to use any draft pick acquired on another quarterback anyway.
Price check: 2023 late 1st
Win-now: Sell
Rebuild: Hold
Superflex: Hold
Player Notes
• The Ravens’ offense is something else right now. I’m not so much talking about losing to the Dolphins, more just how they’re getting it done. We were asking who’s going to step up besides Mark Andrews? Rashod Bateman had two touchdowns in Week 2 and Devin Duvernay had two touchdowns in Week 1. Ravens receivers have combined for six touchdowns total (Demarcus Robinson has one and Duvernay returned a kickoff for a touchdown). Who would’ve thought they’d have one rushing TD through two games? Will this last? Of course not, it can’t! All this to say, I would love to trade for J.K. Dobbins. I didn't expect much from Kenyan Drake or Mike Davis this year, so no surprises there. Justice Hill looks explosive here and there during his handful of touches and is the only other RB I would bother with and that’s in a very deep format of course. But Dobbins—if he’s anywhere even close to what he was—would be the clear-cut starter and I feel we can eventually lock him in for 18-plus touches weekly.
• I never really talk about tight ends since there's such a clear distinction between them. Kyle Pitts, good. Pat Freiermuth, OK. Hunter Henry, meh. But I really like how Gerald Everett‘s playing and he’s elevated himself into a dynasty sell for rebuilds. Everett is feasting through two games and if you’re psyched because you have the preseason TE23 playing like a TE5 after a full career of fantasy mediocrity and you’re clutching onto him, you’re doing it wrong. It’s a value game and you want more of it. Sell ’em, unless you have no other decent tight ends.
• Don’t be too reactionary with the Rams (i.e. Cam Akers and Allen Robinson II). Easy to see that the Bills are making everybody look like trash.
• It was just one quarter and change of garbage time against the aforementioned Bills on Monday, but you should move on from Titans rookie Malik Willis. I don't know how much more you need to see, but if you are still holding him, I really can't overstate how little I think of him as a quarterback. He's not Lamar Jackson; he's not Michael Vick. He's a poor man's Eric Crouch and he at least had the good sense to not go into the NFL. Willis lacks accuracy, footwork, timing, feel and pocket presence. He has arm strength and above-average athleticism. I just don't have the belief or patience to hold him for another three seasons while he learns what he should've began to learn in college. I've seen enough.
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