There went your preseason preconceptions! Trey Lance? Ugh. Carson Wentz? What the... And Patrick Mahomes was juuust right, like Goldilocks's third bowl of oatmeal.
My bird's eye view of Week 1 is to not read into it too much. For example, the aforementioned Wentz had a bunch nice throws with good decision-making, but he was Wentzian at times with two interceptions and a few more forced throws that could've gone poorly. Or the previously mentioned Lance did struggle to execute, played with happy feet too often but he also showed off his arm with a handful of excellent throws and I'm willing to give him a pass based on Chicago's rough weather and sloppy field. There are two sides, at least, to every player's performance and we shouldn't form too many firm opinions just yet.
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RB Saquon Barkley, New York Giants
Talk about a rebound! This is what many of us were hoping for back last season. With 164 rushing yards and a touchdown on 18 carries, plus six receptions on seven targets for 30 receiving yards against the Titans in Week 1, Say-Say posted 33.4 PPR points. That’s his highest scoring game since the 2019 season, although he had three games in 2021 with 18.5 or more points.
I think the anarchist in all of us wants to sell high and ride off into the sunset with a boatload of future draft capital. I would resist that urge. While I wasn’t particularly impressed with the Titans’ run defense, Barkley ran with a dizzying mix of patience, explosion and urgency. It helps that his offensive line showed up and put a “hat-on-a-hat” on nearly every play. If you watch Barkley’s highlights, he’s either making the first man miss or not getting touched until he’s full stride into the second layer of the defense. Are the Giants actually good? OK, I’m just kidding, but maybe a little. You should definitely hold and I’m feeling good enough to consider a buy if you can land him a price point lower than my price check.
Price check: 2023 Early 1st and 2023 mid 3rd
Win-now: Hold
Rebuild: Hold
RB Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams
When a running back goes from the value of a dynasty RB2 to chopped liver essentially overnight, even though I am as aggressive as they come, I’m not moving on. Akers’s trade value sank like a rock since the Rams' Thursday night game after seeing only three carries and providing zero yards.
I wrote in Week 1, before the game, that I was still firmly in Akers’s camp and that I did not believe Darrell Henderson is a more talented player. I still believe all of this to be true. It’s just clear that Akers is not 100% and not playing like it. You’ve probably read conjecture about how “Well, James Robinson is back and playing well, Akers can do the same!” I guess that’s valid in some sort of vacuous, anecdotal way. I just believe a lot went wrong for the Rams in that game against the Bills, who were absolutely banging on all cylinders. Henderson had a decent game, but he wasn’t undeniable; he wasn’t dominant.
I think it’d take a lot of guts to buy into Akers right now, but I kind of like it if you have an extra early draft pick or two, plus a need at running back. The problem is finding someone willing to sell who is pricing him at a desirable discount.
Price check: 2023 mid 2nd
Win-now: Buy/Hold
Rebuild: Buy/Hold
RB Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans
Even though they choked away a lead and should’ve won their game against the Colts that finished in a tie, I kind of like the Texans this year. Davis Mills hangs tough and makes all the throws. His arm is above average. He reminds me of Joe Flacco—you know, back when he was halfway decent. If he can get a bit better with his pocket feel and not hang onto the ball as much, Mills could end up more than just a “fine, I’ll take him” caliber QB2 in superflex leagues.
Why am I talking about Mills in a writeup about Dameon Pierce? Well, the only reason Pierce didn’t do as much as we hoped was because of head coach Lovie Smith’s concerns about his pass protection and receiving talents. Smith said of Pierce: “There’s some things we’re going to work on so that situation doesn’t happen again.” Pierce is the better ball-carrier and like the Intercontinental Champion Macho Man Randy Savage told us, the cream will rise to the top.
Price check: 2023 early 2nd
Win-now: Buy/Hold
Rebuild: Buy/Hold
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Player notes
• While I came away impressed by Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel, I'm not taking the dynasty bait. I believe Dotson and Samuel, even in a perfect world, are flex plays during bye weeks. The Jaguars‘ defense had about every Commanders player looking good. Dotson, Samuel and Terry McLaurin won’t all be viable every week. Dotson did look damn good though.
• I crapped on Jalen Hurts a bit last year and he’s rounded into a pretty decent quarterback. The Eagles deserve credit for managing his decision-making and keeping the offense simple. When you watch a guy like Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert in contrast to Hurts, it should be clear there’s more than one way—a ton of ways, really—to be a successful quarterback. Hurts’s accuracy and delivery are still baffling to me, so I suppose I just have to live with him. It certainly helps that he got to face a porous Lions’ defense.
• If Justin Fields is your QB1, why? But it’s going to be a very long season. It should be a red flag that in almost every game, Fields’s best-scoring pass plays are breakdowns where he scrambles for four seconds and chucks it deep. It’s not sustainable! I understand the Bears’ offense isn’t good, except for Khalil “stuck behind David Montgomery” Herbert but Fields isn’t doing anyone any favors.
• Michael Thomas is a vortex where thrown footballs are absorbed like a black hole. The man catches everything despite getting almost no separation.
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• AJ Dillon had a great game in the loss to the Vikings and those who have been calling for him to possibly surpass Aaron Jones this season might have had a point. But the problem is the Packers‘ offense has nobody else worth a damn. I expect to see tons of Jones and Dillon each week.
• Breece Hall and Michael Carter are like a poor man's Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.
• I'm very bullish on Tyler Allgeier once he’s back and I don’t mind Damien Williams if he can be had for free off the waiver wire. Cordarrelle Patterson will make a great handcuff to both. The Falcons' offense reminded me of Colin Kaepernick back in college when he was with Nevada. They used a lot of the pistol formation. There were a lot of run plays (38 team carries) and lots of short, quick-hitting passes. The million-dollar question is: How often will the Falcons be playing with a lead, which allows the game script to fit their preferred style of play? Probably not often.
• Isiah Pacheco’s solid game is being downplayed because it came during garbage time and Clyde Edwards-Helaire had one of his best games ever. I just really like the way Pacheco runs. CEH made the most of his opportunities versus the Cardinals, but Pacheco still looked like the better pure runner, especially between the tackles.
• I’ve been on Team Courtland Sutton since Jerry Jeudy entered the league but Jeudy looked like a better fit with Russell Wilson. Jeudy’s agility and burst after the catch is a big help on busted plays. Sutton may have the edge as a pure receiver given his length and hands. However, Jeudy can more easily get open when Russ is on the move or a play breaks down. Sutton can win 50-50 balls, but he doesn’t offer much once the ball in his hands. I don’t believe Jeudy is worth paying up for or that Sutton is a dynasty sell, so I’ve got no added wisdom here—just speaking to hear myself speak, I guess. My point is that I was rather convinced Sutton was going to be the clear-cut better of the two this year and I could be mistaken. It’s been known to happen.
