I don't consider myself a conspiratorial person—especially in today's politically charged public discourse. Admitting you believe in any conspiracy theory carries with it a plethora of baggage. But after watching Baker Mayfield get picked up from the airport, come off the bench and lead a 98-yard scoring drive for the win against the Raiders Thursday night, it's just one of things that make you go "hmmm!”
I'm not as down on Mayfield as most of the sports media, not that I really consider myself part of the sports media in the first place. I believe Mayfield can be a sufficient game manager with decent accuracy and above average decision-making—both exclusively occurring when given time in the pocket. He stepped away from the comforts of the Browns' above average offensive line and cover of the Nick Chubb-Kareem Hunt rushing attack and thusly been exposed as a disappointment.
I also don't believe it would be a surprise for the Raiders to underwhelm and allow a long game-winning drive. Not that they are anything special. But if you told me the Rams paid off the Raiders, on the organizational level, to bite the bullet and take a loss to make Mayfield look good—I wouldn't be surprised. Los Angeles needs some breathing room and to put some optimism back into the club. No matter how you spin it, the Rams are in a death spiral. In my Week 9 Cheat Sheet, I called for Sean McVay's head as I believe the team's 2022 underperformance has been fully his burden to bear. I just can't get over how mishandled the backfield has been. They still don't lean into Cam Akers and had the gall to start Darrell Henderson over him for most of the season. Yes, Akers is that good and Henderson is that bad. Don't @ me. I can also understand you'd put the blame on the GM, Les Snead, but talent is talent. This team should not be anywhere near as bad as it is. The injuries to Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald didn't happen until after the franchise had already sunk the season.
Where am I going with this? Well, I guess I just don't trust NFL ownership and there's a certain cover that comes with middling along rather than ever being the worst team in the league—just ask the Commanders, a franchise patched together year after year with newspaper clippings and paper mache. If, as an NFL franchise owner, I could put a thumb on the scale and temporarily breathe some optimism in the club to take some pressure off my GM, coaching staff and so on, then why not? Give them some plausible deniability to have another year to turn it around. The 2023 season will be much more palatable to the senses if coming off a glass-half-full finish led by Baker Mayfield—and presumably a retired Matthew Stafford—than without Mayfield and no draft picks available to adequately address the quarterback position.
I don't know. It's just all a little convenient to me. And while it's 99.9% certain none of what I said has any basis in reality, and Mayfield and the Rams gutted out a win and that's all it was... I'll begrudgingly accept what my eyes are telling me and remain skeptical.
1. Ordering Up a D'Onta Foreman Special
D'Onta Foreman and the Panthers were on bye last week, so hopefully he's had a few extra days to rest as he's currently listed as questionable. The former Texas Longhorns back has four 100-plus rushing games in his last six games. In those games he had 17, 26, 32 and 24 touches. His Week 14 opponent, the Seahawks, rank third-worst against fantasy running backs. What's a bit unique about the Seattle defense is they really don't have any full-time defensive players. Meaning, they're rotating almost everywhere. The only two defenders with 100% snaps played in most weeks are ILB Jordyn Brooks and CB Tariq Woolen. If this doesn't really mean anything to you, this is basically unheard of and doesn't happen often or anywhere else in the league. Most every team rotates along the defensive line and between a couple linebackers and a couple defensive backs as they shift between rushing and passing formations. But there's just a certain inconsistency that's going on here that's rare.
So, the Panthers are rushing the ball more, offenses are rushing more against the Seahawks as of late and do we expect Sam Darnold to throw it 40 or 50 times per game anyway? Seattle is allowing 2.01 yards before contact since Week 10. Seattle's answer for teams piling on in the run is putting more men in the box, particularly safety Ryan Neal, who's filled in nicely after Jamal Adams went down for the year. But between big plays (11 since Week 10, third-most over that span), yards before contact, a dinged up defense, a heavy-rotation defense and a downhill Foreman (who will share the backfield with Chuba Hubbard) should result in a big day for him.
2. Week 14 Stick a Fork in 'Em
The "safe to drop Player X” advice bores me, and it's usually too obvious. I'm going after players and teams here, and I'm targeting a player among the top 20 QBs, top 50 RBs, top 60 WRs or top 20 TEs.
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kansas City Chiefs
Well really, this is a write-up against JJSS, but it goes for all Chiefs wide receivers. Furthermore, I do like this wide receiver group as a committee, the Chiefs style of play and Patrick Mahomes's attention is divided. So no one single pass-catcher, outside of the prolific Travis Kelce, is consistent enough to make a fantasy impact. How many 100-yard games do all Chiefs receivers have this season? Three, and two of them came during their win over the 49ers. How many touchdowns do Chiefs receivers have in their last three games? Zero. Over this last five-game stretch, the Chiefs have two matchups against the Broncos, who give up the fewest points to the position this season. And Kansas City also heads to Houston in Week 15, a team so bad you don't even need to pass the ball against them because you're up 14 by the second quarter. Another game against the average Seahawks pass defense, but their run defense is so bad the Chiefs won't need to throw. Finally, a road game against the Raiders which may be the final shot for any Chiefs receiver to redeem this season.
Kadarius Toney has been a disappointment and is dinged up this week. Mecole Hardman is hoping to return as soon as next week from injured reserve. The big plays aren't coming often enough for Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Justin Watson doesn't see enough targets to be productive. Skyy Moore? Don't be sillyy (see what I did there?). That leaves us with JJSS. He had a nice stretch from Weeks 6-9 (Week 8 bye). In those three games, he had 22 catches for 325 yards and two touchdowns, which provided 22.2 fantasy points per game. Since then, three games with a combined seven catches for 106 yards—a paltry 6.2 fantasy points per game. The danger with guys on this offense is you believe they can blow up at any time, and they do. One day, Patrick Mahomes blesses us and them with a big game. The problem is you have to wait a month and a half before it happens because the randomness of it all.
3. Week 14 Friggin' Bums
Every week, I'll highlight eight players (two at each position) that I like who are rostered in less than 50% of Yahoo leagues. You can think of them as desperation plays or salary punts in DFS contests.
- QB Russell Wilson, DEN (vs. KC)
- QB Ryan Tannehill, TEN (vs. JAC)
- RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (at SEA)
- RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (at NYG)
- WR Chris Moore, HOU (at DAL)
- WR Nico Collins, HOU (at DAL)
- TE Hunter Henry, NE (at ARI)
- TE Chigoziem Okonkwo, TEN (vs. JAC)
4. Weekly SI Fantasy Must-Reads
Before setting your lineups, make sure you check out some of the world-class fantasy lowdown from our SI Fantasy analysts:
• Week 14 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em: QB | RB | WR | TE | K / DST
• Week 14 Rankings
• Week 14 Projections
• Week 14 Defense vs. Position
• DFS Lineup Optimizer
• Player Props
• NFL Futures
• Waiver Wire Pickups
• NFL DFS Picks
• IDP Waiver Wire Report
• Dynasty Stock Watch
• Fantasy Fallout: Garoppolo Out for the Season
• Top 10 Week 13 Fantasy Takeaways
• Early Look at Week 14 Waiver Wire Pickups
5. FanNation Updates
Welcome to a new addition to the Cheat Sheet... Our friends at FanNation, who are closely tied with teams around the league, will be joining us with some late fantasy-related updates:
Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals did not hold practice on Friday in advance of their Monday Night Football matchup with the New England Patriots, so we can only work from what we’ve heard from Kliff Kingsbury and Thursday’s injury report. It appears Rondale Moore is questionable at best (DNP on Thursday), leaving the door open for the productive Greg Dortch to take his place. Dortch (who is injured on his own but expected to play) put up over 100 yards when last given the starting spot in place of Moore and was second only to Marquise Brown in receptions/yards in the first three weeks of the year. If Moore is indeed out, Dortch is perhaps the best plug-and-play option for fantasy players this week.— Donnie Druin | All Cardinals
Baltimore Ravens
Left tackle Ronnie Stanley did not practice Friday, but he appears ready to get back in the lineup for the key Week 14 matchup against the Steelers. Stanley has missed the past two games with an ankle injury. He'll be a valuable addition against the Steelers. ... Quarterback Lamar Jackson is listed as doubtful with an ankle injury but coach John Harbaugh confirmed that Tyler Huntley will get the start. ... The Ravens have held three of their last four opponents to fewer than 14 points. Baltimore did not allow a touchdown to the Panthers or Broncos over that stretch. That success has coincided with the addition of inside linebacker Roquan Smith, who has 31 tackles and one sack in four games with the Ravens. — Todd Karpovich, | Raven Country
Cleveland Browns
Wide receiver Amari Cooper suffered a hip injury in practice on Thursday and did not practice Friday. He expects to play, but is listed as questionable. Likewise, rookie wide receiver David Bell didn’t practice Friday due to a toe injury, but he doesn’t have a designation as it relates to Sunday, so he is also likely to play. Tight end David Njoku missed last week with a knee injury, but he’s off the injury report entirely, good to go. ... So much of this game will depend on Deshaun Watson’s continued acclimation to the speed of the NFL. The expectation is he will be better, though no one on the team is willing to put a timeline on it. His private quarterback coach, Quincy Avery, has estimated three weeks. This is week two. — Pete Smith | Browns Digest
Detroit Lions
The Lions ruled out three players against the Vikings, including OL Kayode Awosika, CB Chase Lucas and LB Derrick Barnes. ... Quarterback Jared Goff has tossed a touchdown pass in 11 consecutive home games. With his full arsenal of offensive weapons likely available at Ford Field, it is worthwhile it to start Goff in your fantasy league this week. -- John Maakaron | All Lions
Jacksonville Jaguars
The biggest name to watch is Trevor Lawrence, who is dealing with what Doug Pederson described as a sprained big toe this week. Lawrence missed two practices before taking part in Friday’s practice, which suggests he is trending toward playing. The expectation from Pederson and Lawrence himself in pressers this week has seemed to indicate the same. — John Shipley | Jaguar Report
New York Giants
The Giants could be without defensive lineman Leonard Williams, who has been dealing with a neck issue first sustained against Washington last week. If Williams can’t play, that would be a big loss for the Giants, who will have to come up with other ways to slow down the Eagles, who currently have the NFL's fifth-best rushing attack. — Patricia Traina | Giants Country
