With Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa all enjoying a week off, the MVP race had a chance to get even more absurd in Week 10.
Lamar Jackson faced one of the league’s best defenses in the Browns, providing him with a stiff test in an important AFC North matchup. In Jacksonville, it was Trevor Lawrence dealing with Nick Bosa, Fred Warner and the 49ers’ defense.
Yet nobody made more of a move, either in the MVP race or in the standings, than the Texans’ C.J. Stroud.
Stroud was brilliant for most of Sunday’s game. He put the Texans in position to upset the Bengals on the road, and then made a critical error. Leading 27–17 with less than four minutes remaining, Stroud threw an interception, allowing Cincinnati to regain possession and cut its deficit to three. Then, Houston went three-and-out, and the Bengals tied it.
But what happened next is why Stroud is so intriguing. Instead of turtling, the rookie drove Houston down the field on a six-play, 55-yard drive, setting up a game-winning field goal as time expired.
Stroud threw for 356 yards in Week 10, but even the box score doesn’t do the performance justice.
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32. Tommy DeVito, New York Giants (32)
31. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers (27)
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Look, Young is eight starts into his career. To draw definitive conclusions would be asinine. But at the same time, the early returns are anything but promising.
Going into Week 11, Young ranks 27th in passing yardage, 33rd in yards per attempt, 32nd in yards per completion and 25th in completion percentage. In short, nothing is going well.
On Thursday night against the Bears, Young looked lost. His passes were often hesitant and short, and he was constantly playing something of a scared game. Some of this can be blamed on the coaching staff, but Young has to be better. Much better.
At this point, it’s ugly football from a quarterback who Carolina gave up a fortune for.
30. Mac Jones, New England Patriots (30)
29. Tyson Bagent, Chicago Bears (31)
28. Zach Wilson, New York Jets (28)
27. Aidan O’Connell, Las Vegas Raiders (24)
26. Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers (29)
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The good news? The Steelers are currently 6–3 and the fifth seed in a deep AFC playoff picture. The bad news? The offense is a mess, largely because Pickett has been a bottom-tier quarterback once again.
Going into his second year, the thought was Pickett could mature, and Pittsburgh would be a force. While the Steelers have been a winning team, they’ve also been outgained every week, and Pickett has totaled just 179.6 passing yards per game with six touchdowns and four interceptions.
At some point, Pittsburgh needs Pickett to find mediocrity (or better) if it’s going to become a real factor come January. If the quarterback continues on this road, the Steelers might get into the postseason, but they’ll be blasted out of it by a team with a true franchise quarterback.
25. Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons (N/A)
24. Will Levis, Tennessee Titans (23)
23. Joshua Dobbs, Minnesota Vikings (26)
22. Gardner Minshew, Indianapolis Colts (20)
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Minshew isn’t overwhelming by any stretch, but he’s playing well enough for the Colts to be 5–5 and on the fringe of a playoff berth.
A well-traveled journeyman, Minshew entered the year as Anthony Richardson’s mentor and understudy, only to be pressed into duty after the rookie’s shoulder injury in October. The results have been middling from a statistical standpoint, as Minshew has thrown for eight touchdowns with six interceptions.
However, if the Colts are going to make a surprising push toward the postseason, their quarterback has to find another level. Minshew ranks 27th in on-target throws (65.4%) and is tied for 23rd in intended air yards per attempt (7.1).
Indianapolis doesn’t need Minshew to be superb, but he needs to be more of a factor.
21. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers (22)
20. Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns (20)
19. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (19)
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The Buccaneers (at 4–5 in a bad division) have been out of the national conversation, but Mayfield deserves credit for the year he’s having.
On a one-year deal, Mayfield is doing a quality job. The 2018 No. 1 pick has thrown for 2,143 yards (16th) with 14 touchdowns and five interceptions. He’s also averaging 7.0 yards per attempt, a respectable 19th.
Nobody is looking at Mayfield as a long-term answer yet, but he arrived on a team with limited weaponry beyond Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and, going into Week 11, Tampa Bay is now a half game out of first place in the NFC South.
Mayfield hasn’t been special, but he’s been serviceable.
18. Sam Howell, Washington Commanders (18)
17. Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos (16)
16. Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints (14)
15. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers (17)
14. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (15)
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Murray returned for the first time since tearing his ACL in December, and he looked like the high-flying athlete we remembered.
In a 25–23 win over the Falcons, Murray threw for 249 yards (7.8 YPA) and an interception. More important, he ran for 33 yards, including a key 13-yard scramble to pick up a first down on the eventual game-winning drive.
The Cardinals are 2–8 and playing out the string, but this is an important moment for Murray. If he can continue to show he’s fully back and has bought into the new regime under coach Jonathan Gannon, perhaps Arizona won’t draft a quarterback in 2023—and instead could nab someone like Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr. to pair him with Murray.
13. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks (13)
12. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (12)
11. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys (11)
10. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins (7)
9. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (5)
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Lawrence has almost universally been looked at as a generational talent since being drafted out of Clemson, but the 2023 season has been a struggle at times.
While the Jaguars are 6–3 and leading the AFC South, Lawrence has vacillated between very good and average. He’s thrown nine touchdowns against six interceptions on the year, despite having ample weapons and a terrific, offensive-minded coach in Doug Pederson.
Furthermore, Lawrence is averaging only 235.6 passing yards per game, ranking 16th in football. He’s also tied with Pickett at 26th in intended air yards per attempt (7.0), albeit ranking ahead of Mahomes and Joe Burrow.
If the Jaguars are going to make noise come January, Lawrence has to be more than just good. They need him to be phenomenal. So far, he’s been far more former than the latter.
8. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (6)
7. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (9)
6. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans (10)
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Forget about Offensive Rookie of the Year; that’s a cinch. Now it’s a question of whether Stroud is a legitimate MVP candidate.
Through nine games, Stroud ranks second in passing yardage (2,626), 10th in QBR (63.2), second in yards per completion (13.4) and tied ninth in passing touchdowns (15). Factor in the Texans being 5–4 and pushing for a shot at the AFC South crown, and Stroud is suddenly trying to be the second rookie to ever win NFL MVP. (Jim Brown was the first and only to do it in 1957.)
Going forward, the schedule also favors Houston and its young quarterback. Stroud gets to face the Cardinals, Broncos and Titans twice. While there are tilts facing elite defenses like the Jets and Browns, Stroud has a chance to continue ascending toward lofty hardware.
5. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions (8)
4. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (4)
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Burrow had been brilliant the last two weeks against the 49ers and Bills, combining for five touchdowns and zero turnovers while completing 77.6% of his attempts.
Then, against the Texans on Sunday, Burrow threw a pair of costly, second-half interceptions that contributed to a shocking 30–27 defeat, dropping Cincinnati to 5–4.
While everyone understands Burrow was playing on a strained calf for much of the first two months, that injury, and the Bengals’ subsequent record, has left no margin for error.
Burrow is fantastic, but a few more games like his performance last weekend will mean Cincinnati is watching the playoffs from home.
3. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens (2)
