The expectations heading into Week 1 can get the best of you. We want the Rams and Bengals to pick up right where they left off as the top teams of the NFC and AFC, respectively. We are looking forward to the Bills cakewalking through the AFC East. Tom Brady—well, he's the GOAT, right? He shouldn't falter! But somebody has to finish last in the AFC West between the Broncos, Chargers, Chiefs and Raiders. It's not likely that the Rams, 49ers and Cardinals all make the playoffs. The pursuit of knowing this year's sleepers, busts and breakouts—the lifeblood of a fantasy manager's offseason—are all examples of our expectations. They all form a narrative, yet it's all speculation until the games begin.
Every NFL season draws us in and holds our collective attention because the league is chock full of parity. Every NFL season ends up being a completely unique experience for all 32 teams—except the Jets. We can all agree they'll be awful, right? In any case, I encourage an open mind as the season kicks off today with the Rams hosting the Bills for Thursday Night Football. And yes, it is possible for the Jets and an eventually healthy Zach Wilson to turn it all around. No team is beyond redemption!
Instead of focusing on the marquee fantasy players across the league, I want to focus the Week 1 cheat sheet on borderline players who are either at the end of your bench or near the top of a 12-team league's waiver wire. We need to keep an eye on the names who could pop early in the season.
Mark Konezny/USA TODAY Sports
1. Isaiah McKenzie SZN
Gabe Davis has consistently been the "sleeper du jour" this year, but I'm liking McKenzie both in Week 1 and over the course of the 2022 season.
The Rams aren't that great against slot receivers and they return their nickel corner Troy Hill. Assuming Jalen Ramsey holds down Stefon Diggs, both Davis and McKenzie have massive Week 1 potential. Why, you may ask?
Well the Rams run an exotic defense with the ability to mask their pass rush because they have Aaron Donald playing all over the defensive front. They can also disguise how their coverage will be deployed because Donald gives this defense so much flexibility and Ramsey's talent can shut down a receiver. Add veteran linebacker Bobby Wagner and it's possible this defense could be even better. The result is a defense that's keeps offensive linemen guessing and quarterbacks on their hills. I expect the Rams will try to take away Diggs and force Josh Allen to hold the ball and pivot to his second and third reads.
If there is one vulnerability to the Rams defense, it's the short stuff and over the middle, which is where I expect McKenzie and Davis to fill in nicely. The aforementioned Rams slot corner Hill allowed a 77% catch rate (one of the worst rates in the league for a corner with 350-plus routes defended) and because of that, he also allowed 0.27 fantasy points per route defended (that's pretty bad as well). It is possible the Rams lean on Wagner to matchup against the slot and tight ends, so I anticipate he'll be more focused on Dawson Knox. I just don't foresee Wagner, the wily veteran, being able to matchup against the speedy McKenzie.
2. Exercise patience with George Pickens
I've talked ad nauseam about Pickens throughout the offseason and while the hype is real, he's still a rookie. On paper, he's the third receiver on a team with Mitch Trubisky at quarterback. Najee Harris saw 94 targets and hauled in 74 passes last season. Pat Freiermuth saw 18 red-zone targets, caught 12 passes and scored seven TDs in the red zone. In all likelihood, only an injury would thrust Pickens into a fantasy-viable situation. Optimism can only keep a player on the fantasy bench for so long. Eventually, managers will need to make room to add players and I expect Pickens to be an early league casualty across many leagues. Hold out for as long as you can. I really believe the cream will rise to the top and he could overtake Chase Claypool in the pecking order sooner, rather than later.
View the original article to see embedded media.
3. Cam Akers vs. Darrell Henderson
I know I said I was going to focus on fringe players but this is the big fantasy headline heading into Thursday Night Football. I am 100% in the Akers camp. Look, if Henderson were the clear-cut starter and Akers wasn't in the picture, I do believe he could be a solid RB2 in this Rams offense. But Akers is just a better, more explosive, physical runner. Buffalo has a great defense, but their strength comes from a bend, but not break style. They can be beat on the ground.
It's reasonable to expect the Rams will take it easy on Akers—only to start the season— but that is to say this will be a 60/40 split backfield in his favor over Henderson. That's the upper limit for Henderson's involvement. If you genuinely believe Henderson could usurp Akers on pure talent, you've got another thing coming. To protect Akers from getting piled on, we saw during last year's playoff run that Henderson received more short-yardage and goal-line work. I expect this to continue. The fact that my guy Akers even suited up, let alone actually played in last year's postseason coming off a torn Achilles, was telling -- and they had him playing the majority of snaps. How good can Henderson be if he can't even hold a starting job while Akers was about seven months removed from that tear? I digress. Let's kick off the season already so I can see how right I am!
4. My Week 1 Friggin' Bums
Every week, I'll highlight eight players (two at each position) that I like who are rostered in less than 50% of Yahoo leagues. You can think of them as desperation plays or salary punts in DFS contests.
- QB Baker Mayfield, CAR (vs. CLE)
- QB Carson Wentz, WAS (vs. JAC)
- RB Jeff Wilson, Jr., SF (at CHI)
- RB Zamir White, LV (at LAC)
- WR Rondale Moore, ARI (vs. KC)
- WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (vs. JAC)
- TE Austin Hooper, TEN (vs. NYG)
- TE Cameron Brate, TB (at DAL)
5. Week 1 SI Fantasy Must-Reads
Before setting your lineups, make sure you check out some of the world-class fantasy lowdown from our SI Fantasy analysts:
