Good morning. Last night, Joe Biden was greeted in Belfast by Rishi Sunak; today, he will deliver a keynote address at Ulster University’s campus to mark the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement before heading to the Republic of Ireland. And while “the most Irish president since JFK” will stop to pay respects to his ancestors and meet relatives in County Mayo and County Louth after he goes to Dublin, this trip is about more than heritage tourism.
With the devolved Northern Ireland assembly still not functioning and the shape of the cross-border relationship changing because of Sunak’s post-Brexit deal, Biden said that his priorities for the trip were to “make sure the Irish accords and Windsor agreements stay in place. Keep the peace and that’s the main thing”.
The United States’ ability to influence the region’s politics is underscored by the resonance of the anniversary of the end of the Troubles. But even if today’s political crises pale in comparison to those of 1998, many are sceptical that Biden can exert anything like the same influence this time.
Today’s newsletter, with the Guardian’s Ireland correspondent Rory Carroll, is a primer on what to expect from the visit – and what the limits on its impact might be. Here are the headlines.
Five big stories
CBI | Police have launched an investigation into alleged sexual misconduct at the Confederation of British Industry in the wake of the Guardian’s reports of complaints against senior figures at the organisation. In a day of turmoil, the CBI announced it had dismissed its director general, Tony Danker, who had been suspended following separate allegations over his conduct.
Ukraine | US intelligence reportedly warned in February that Ukraine might fail to amass sufficient troops and weaponry for its planned spring counter-offensive, according to one of a trove of leaked defence documents. The leak also indicated that the UK has deployed as many as 50 special forces to Ukraine.
Northern Ireland | The man said to be the British army’s most important agent inside the Provisional IRA has died, putting a question mark over the inquiry into his alleged crimes and the role played by security forces. Freddie Scappaticci, who was alleged to have been a top mole known as Stakeknife, was in his early 70s.
UK news | The landlady of a pub whose collection of golliwog dolls was confiscated by police has assembled replacements, which she plans to display in defiance of a continuing investigation. Benice Ryley, who denies any racist intent, confirmed that her husband had been photographed in a T-shirt from the far-right group Britain First.
Media | Twitter owner Elon Musk has said the social media site will update the BBC’s “government-funded media” tag after the broadcaster objected to the label. In an interview with the BBC on Tuesday, Musk said he had the “utmost respect” for the organisation.
In depth: ‘There’s curiosity and affection for Biden, but I don’t sense an imminent rapture’
When Barack Obama came to Ireland in 2011, drank Guinness and joked of his sliver of Irish ancestry that “I’ve come home to find the apostrophe that we lost somewhere along the way”, the mood was jubilant. Bill Clinton’s visit to Northern Ireland in 1995, the first by a sitting US president, was seen as a vital signal of the changing political calculus by Gerry Adams. John F Kennedy’s visit to Dublin in 1963, as the great-grandson of Irish emigrants, saw a garden party descend into “part rugby scrummage and part adoring struggle for the glory of a presidential handshake”.
Joe Biden’s visit has been keenly awaited, but the atmosphere is unlikely to quite reach those heights, Rory Carroll said. In the Republic, “there’s curiosity, and an affection for him, but I don’t sense an imminent rapture.” In Belfast, Rory and Lisa O’Carroll wrote, locals appeared “more bemused and curious than excited”.
“In Northern Ireland he has a very delicate balancing act,” Rory said. “The atmosphere there this week is deeply ambivalent – a desire to celebrate the achievement of the Good Friday Agreement on the anniversary, but political dysfunction and uncertainty about what comes next.”
For a sense of the level of secrecy and anticipation, see Lisa O’Carroll’s piece from yesterday. In the meantime, here are some of the key questions around the Biden trip.
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Will Biden seek to push the DUP back towards Stormont government?
Sinn Féin’s leader, Mary Lou McDonald, has already sought to set the context for the visit by expressing her frustration that Biden will not be able to address Stormont. Biden has used the prospect of a visit as a tool to nudge the UK to resolve the Northern Ireland protocol problem. But now the Windsor framework is in place, he must tread carefully, particularly with the DUP, who are the chief protagonists of the current impasse.
“We’ll hear quite a bit about the golden economic opportunity awaiting Northern Ireland in the US,” Rory said. “But he won’t directly point the finger at the DUP – that would backfire.”
Biden will meet with Sunak this morning – but reports that he would hold a meeting with the five main political parties in Belfast were denied last night. Tony Blair told the BBC: “The Americans can play a real role, but it’s something that you need to do carefully.”
Part of the reason for that care is the sense that the DUP may already be edging back towards Stormont despite their reservations about Rishi Sunak’s deal with the EU to resolve the disagreement over trading arrangements in Northern Ireland. The Guardian’s editorial today notes that “given the party’s fears of being outflanked to its right by the still more hardline Traditional Unionist Voice, any return seems highly unlikely until after the mid-May elections”.
“There is a real hope that they are edging crabwise towards the restoration of powersharing,” said Rory. “The view is that the best thing to do is not say anything to jeopardise that.” There are already those in the unionist community who view Biden sceptically: “Some are quite outspoken in saying that he or other US Democrats are misty-eyed, delusional cheerleaders for a pan-nationalist front, that they don’t understand Northern Ireland at all. So he won’t want to put fuel on the fire.”
For a flavour of that mood, see this editorial from the unionist News Letter last month: Unionists “can’t stand sourly beside Mr Biden,” it says. “But nor can they join any gushing about a 1998 accord that has been distorted, with the help of Biden’s Democratic Party, as if it is an Irish nationalist document.”
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How will he present his own relationship to Ireland?
Part of the reason for that scepticism lies in Biden’s occasional public reflections on his Irish roots, which have not always been exactly diplomatic from a unionist point of view: most famously, when asked for an interview by the BBC, he replied: “The BBC? I’m Irish!”
Such remarks can be overinterpreted, Rory said. “They are, in the end, jokes. It’s not a shtick about his Irish heritage – he really does value it. But he’s been into the weeds of the Troubles often enough over the decades.” David Smith has a fascinating history of Biden’s relationship to his family history. Rory points to an occasion in Congress (£) where the name of Lord Mountbatten, who was killed by the IRA in Sligo in 1979, was booed by some in the gallery. “He challenged them – he told them to shut up and noted that two teenagers had also died. He has called out provisional IRA violence and republican radicalism.”
Most of Biden’s visit will take place south of the border. The New York Times reports that “even White House officials have made little effort to describe Mr. Biden’s trip as a policy one. It is personal for the president, they said, and most of his time will be spent in the countryside.”
Still, “he is likely to praise corporate America’s role in Ireland’s economic transformation,” Rory said. “But Ireland being something of a tax haven is a sore point. There will not be a mood of triumphalism, but he has a positive story to tell about US investment in Ireland.”
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How will the legacy of the Good Friday agreement shape his agenda?
The timing of Biden’s visit, to mark the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement, offers an opportunity to celebrate the good that US diplomacy can do around the world, and reinforce the value of good faith political negotiation at a time when trust in the region is at a low.
“The US played an absolutely key part,” Rory said. “They were a crucial external factor. They successfully flattered all the key players – republicans and loyalists felt important, and when you’re asking people to do big, historic things, it helps if the White House is rolling out the red carpet.”
An incident in Derry on Monday, where a small crowd threw petrol bombs at a police Land Rover during a parade by dissident republicans in the Creggan area, should be viewed in its proper context, Rory said: “We are talking about a fringe of a fringe – it’s not reflective of the wider situation at all. There’s almost a ritualised aspect to it every Easter. But the timing has, of course, put more of a spotlight on it.”
If so, it emphasises that even if it faces occasional disruption, the Good Friday Agreement has held for a quarter of a century. As difficult as the current political circumstances are in Northern Ireland, Biden can credibly say that they are also evidence of a conviction, forged with help from the US, that the region’s future must be decided by peaceful means.
What else we’ve been reading
Britain’s 2.7 million grey squirrels are out of their trees: flooding houses, smashing tellies, and occasionally bursting into flames. Zoe Williams’ exploration of their problematic rise and some radical solutions continues in this gobsmacking vein. Archie
Stuart Heritage has written about that Succession episode – and why it looks like the race to the top of Waystar Royco might have only just begun. Hannah J Davies, deputy editor, newsletters
After the CBI sacked Tony Danker, who faced allegations of misconduct, Anna Isaac’s analysis explains how the tide turned against the director general. And Josie Cox writes that British business must examine the “networks of complicity” often found where there are claims of harassment. Archie
Nigel Slater’s leek and mussel chowder is a classy, Provencal-inspired take on the midweek soup. Hannah
An audio pick from me today: the moreish Normal Gossip podcast has finally returned, with Salt Fat Acid Heat writer Samin Nosrat joining in on the tattling. If you’re not already a fan then it’s time to indulge your nosy side. Hannah
Sport
Football | Goals from Rodri (above), Bernardo Silva and Erling Haaland gave Manchester City a 3-0 victory against Bayern Munich in their Champions League quarter-final first leg. Barney Ronay wrote that “Haaland will take the headlines, the difference‑maker who made one and scored one. But Silva was utterly masterful here.” Meanwhile, a late penalty from Romelu Lukaku helped Internazionale to a 2-0 win over Benfica.
Football | England’s women were beaten 2-0 by Australia in their international friendly thanks to goals from Charlotte Grant and Sam Kerr. Their defeat by the World Cup co-hosts brings to an end a 30-game winning streak in the last match before the squad for July’s competition is named.
Cricket | Ben Stokes has ordered “flat, fast” pitches for the Ashes series this summer and, as England continue to monitor the fitness of Jofra Archer after another absence, the Test captain claims to already have a starting XI in mind. Stokes said his side would continue their aggressive, results-driven approach when the series begins in nine weeks’ time.
The front pages
The Guardian leads with “Police launch investigation into sexual misconduct claims at CBI”. The i reports “World economy in peril – as UK heads for worst growth in G7”. The Times looks at the US president’s arrival in Belfast with “Northern Irish peace is my priority, vows Biden”.
The Financial Times says “EY ditches break-up plans after US partners turn down Project Everest”. The Telegraph reports on the junior doctors’ strike with the headline “Union boss on holiday as doctors walk out”. The Mail has the same story under the banner “Enough to make you sick”.
Finally, the Mirror leads with “Coronation chaos fear”, with the paper warning that the event next month has been “plunged into chaos”.
Today in Focus
Is artificial intelligence getting out of control?
Hundreds of tech industry leaders have signed a letter proposing a six-month pause on the development of systems more powerful than OpenAI’s GPT-4. Alex Hern reports
Cartoon of the day | Martin Rowson
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Golden eagles are being encouraged to breed in Scotland with the help of two artificial eyries placed high in the trees on a private estate in southern Scotland. Expert climbers were employed to place the two artificial nests, which are designed to encourage the eagles to establish territories and breed in the coming years. They are the first to be placed on private land, with more than 17 privately owned estates including shooting estates with grouse moors supporting the South of Scotland Golden Eagle project.
Illegal persecution has brought the golden eagle to virtual extinction outside its Highlands stronghold. There were between two and four pairs of golden eagles across Dumfries and Galloway and the Scottish Borders before the project began in 2018. But thanks to a series of translocations ,the area’s population has now increased to 38, the highest number recorded for three centuries.
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Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until tomorrow.
• This article was amended on 12 April 2023. An earlier version incorrectly stated that Mary Lou McDonald was the first minister of Northern Ireland.
