For punters using the online prediction market Polymarket, almost everything is a chance to make money. Want to bet on when the US and Iran will reach a peace agreement? Polymarket will let you. Fancy a gamble on how many times Elon Musk will post on X by the end of the day? There’s a market for it. Have a hunch that the second coming of Jesus Christ will happen before 2027? Polymarket reckons there is (currently) a 4% chance, and there’s about $57m on the line already.
In just a few years, prediction markets have become big business, with hundreds of millions of pounds traded on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket each day. For today’s newsletter, I spoke to Aisha Down, the Guardian’s reporter on AI about her recent investigation into the platform and how bedroom gamblers are profiting on anything from the Ukraine war to the number of times President Trump says the word “ballroom” in a speech.
