Good morning. If the answer is “prison works”, it now seems that the most likely question is: what is a good example of a demonstrable policy failure where successive governments have nonetheless decided to stick with the status quo?
England and Wales lock up more people than any other country in western Europe, with Scotland close behind; thanks largely to longer sentences, the prison population has doubled since 1993. But while crime has dropped considerably over that period, the same effect has been seen in countries that don’t lock up nearly so many people – and about 44% of freed prisoners are convicted again within a year.
If stopping crime is the definition of “working”, research by the Sentencing Council says there is no evidence that more people serving longer sentences has acted as a deterrent. Meanwhile, our prisons are facing a capacity crisis, and the government has resorted to freeing people early to reduce overcrowding, with another 1,100 being released yesterday.
That is the context for a sentencing review, to be conducted by the former Conservative justice minister David Gauke, that has just been ordered by the government – and while it can’t solve today’s crisis, it may hold hope of staving off the next one. Since prison plainly doesn’t “work”, today’s newsletter runs you through some of the things that might fix it. Here are the headlines.
Five big stories
UK news | Police chiefs have asked the government to make it harder to prosecute officers after a sergeant was acquitted of the murder of Chris Kaba, in a move that drew immediate criticism from campaigners as a grant of “effective immunity”. It meanwhile emerged that Kaba had shot a man a few days before he was killed and was allegedly a core member of a south London gang.
Middle East | Israel has confirmed the killing of the presumed next leader of Hezbollah in an airstrike on southern Beirut earlier in October. In a statement on Tuesday evening, the Israeli military said strikes in the suburb of Dahiyeh had killed Hashem Safieddine three weeks ago. Hezbollah has not yet commented.
Water | Water companies in England could be banned from making a profit under plans for a complete overhaul of the system. The idea is one of several under consideration by a new commission amid public fury over sewage in rivers and mismanagement.
US elections | Donald Trump has filed an extraordinary complaint against the UK’s Labour party, claiming that volunteers joining the Kamala Harris campaign are guilty of “blatant foreign interference”. Keir Starmer insisted he could maintain a good relationship with Trump despite the claim.
Culture | Abba’s Björn Ulvaeus, actor Julianne Moore and Radiohead singer Thom Yorke are among 10,500 signatories of a statement from the creative industries warning artificial intelligence companies that unlicensed use of their work is a “major, unjust threat” to artists’ livelihoods.
In depth: From sobriety tags and ‘nudge’ watches to a queuing system and house arrest
In a New Statesman article published on Monday, David Gauke was clear that he favoured a fundamental rethink of sentencing policy. “For the last 30 years, there has been a sentencing bidding war between the political parties seeking to compete to be seen as the toughest on crime,” he wrote. “We have no choice but to pause the increase in the prison population.”
To grapple with some of the options that might be under consideration, you first have to know that the measures that might address the immediate capacity emergency – like releasing prisoners early and delaying court hearings – are distinct from those that could be part of sustainable reforms in the long term. The government is already using the first set of measures; it has asked Gauke to look at the second category.
Another issue is the availability of prison places – but even if Labour succeeds in its promise to create 14,000 additional places in six new prisons at a cost of £4bn, they will still be 8,000 places short by 2028, the Institute for Government estimates. So even if you think more prisons are a brilliant idea in their own right – see this First Edition with former chief inspector of prisons Nick Hardwick for some of the reasons they might not be – they are not a complete solution to the problem.
None of the below measures will solve the crisis on their own, either – and they will often increase pressure elsewhere. But in some combination, they may represent the best chance of fixing the system for the long term.
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Reduce the use of short prison sentences
When he was justice secretary, Gauke argued for a reduction in the use of short sentences. And he is not the only observer to conclude that short prison sentences for minor offences are ineffective. About two-thirds of people sentenced to less than six months in jail go on to reoffend; people who aren’t sent to prison are much less likely to do the same.
In 2021, John Bache, former chair of the Magistrates’ Association, told Haroon Siddique: “I don’t see that short prison sentences actually achieve a great deal. The bulk of these people, who commit multiple crimes, they’ve got an underlying problem, which is mental health or alcohol or drugs or a combination of any two or three of those.” The solution, he said, was to address those underlying problems.
The Howard League, a charity that advocates for prison reform, argues that the government should introduce a presumption against the use of short sentences, but that courts should retain the discretion to impose one if there is a specific reason to do so. With about half of all people sent to prison on sentences of less than six months, that would have a significant effect on overall numbers.
Another step would be to abolish recall for breaching parole conditions for sentences of less than 12 months, which are often shorter than two weeks, and for administrative breaches.
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Introduce a ‘queuing system’ or house arrest
Prisoners are often released from custody early and given an electronic tag to ensure they keep to a 7pm-7am curfew. In a report for the law reform charity Justice earlier this year, Hardwick argued that some convicted criminals should be tagged before being imprisoned, with the time in the “queue” deducted from their overall sentences.
That could reduce pressure on prison numbers. The same approach is taken in Norway, where reoffending rates have dropped from 70% to 20% since the 1990s. While it might be unpalatable to some, it is likely to be preferable to the current approach of simply delaying sentencing on an ad-hoc basis.
The justice secretary, Shabana Mahmood, said yesterday that judges could also be given the power to sentence people to house arrest. That would be a similar approach, but with no custodial element – and would be another way to reduce short prison sentences overall.
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Prioritise remand hearings
Partly because of the pandemic, the number of people on remand – that is, waiting for trial and not yet convicted – has risen 84% since 2019, the Institute for Government says; they now account for almost 20% of the total prison population, or 17,000 – a record high. Many defendants now spend more than six months on remand waiting for a trial – but 30% of that number do not get an immediate custodial sentence. Those on remand have the highest suicide rates among all prisoners.
In 2022, more than half of those who had been held on remand for more than six months were facing trial for alleged non-violent offences. If those cases were brought to court more rapidly, the pressure on prison places would decrease. But that would require more investment in the courts, or further delays to other cases.
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Put more resources into probation
These changes would increase demands on the probation service – which the chief inspector of probation in England and Wales has already said are unsustainable. He argued in July that even short-term measures to reduce overcrowding ought to mean that those sentenced for minor offences such as shoplifting should no longer be supervised.
A report by Channel 4 last month revealed that the probation service has consistently been working at 120% capacity since January 2023, figures which the probation officers’ union said were likely an underestimate.
A recruitment programme is underway to recruit 1,000 new trainees, and pay rises have also been brought forward. But officials have also been looking at ways technology could fill the gap. Options include expanding the use of smart watch-style devices that send messages to offenders reminding them of appointments and restrictions, and “sobriety tags” that monitor alcohol consumption.
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End ‘sentence inflation’ and create incentives for good behaviour
In the end, changes to short sentences and remand will only go so far: the main driver of the increase in prison numbers has been the imposition of longer sentences. About 57% of prisoners on determinate sentences were serving four years or more in March this year, with another 15% of the total prison population serving indeterminate sentences.
Most of these people are in prison for serious crimes: more than half have been convicted of violent or sexual offences. But one sign of Gauke’s view is his praise for an approach in Texas, where the prison population has been reduced by rewarding prisoners who complete rehabilitation programmes and show evidence of changed behaviour. At the same time, crime rates have fallen.
Gauke could advocate for a similar approach. Others have called for more fundamental changes to sentencing guidelines and an attempt to escape the long-term trend of repeating “sentence inflation”. Other options include reducing the use of long custodial sentences for women, who are typically low risk, and a presumption that prisoners should be moved to another secure location once they reach a certain age.
There is no doubt that some of these options will be very politically difficult. But there is little reason to think that the status quo – huge numbers of people locked up at great expense and in grim conditions, often going on to reoffend anyway – does not come with risks of its own.
What else we’ve been reading
Ivan Mordisco is a notorious Colombian warlord who had a reputation for stopping deforestation, often through violent means. Luke Taylor’s dispatch looks at how Mordisco reversed course on his position and why it could derail the environmental progress the country has made. Nimo
Despite the massive number of Moscow’s troops who have died in the war against Ukraine, there has been no significant display of dissent within Russia. Pjotr Sauer explores some of the bleak reasons for popular indifference to the soldiers’ fate. Archie
David Smith writes about the true story of a woman’s close brush with a mass murderer on a 1970s dating show, which has inspired Anna Kendrick’s directorial debut film, Woman of the Hour. Nimo
If Elon Musk didn’t exist, Marina Hyde would have had to invent him. Here she is on his shameless campaigning for Trump: “They say democracy dies in darkness, but it currently appears to be suffering serious breathing issues under full stage lights.” Archie
For those interested in the media industry’s future and the ruinous power of big tech on it, along with what the people at the top are truly thinking, Charlotte Klein’s mammoth story in New York magazine will provide some unique insights. Nimo
Sport
Football | Aston Villa went top of the Champions League table after John McGinn and Jhon Durán struck in a 2-0 victory against Bologna. Elsewhere, Arsenal beat Shakhtar Donetsk 1-0, Borussia Dortmund took a two-goal lead at the Bernabéu but eventually lost to Real Madrid 5-2, and Milan beat Club Brugge 3-1.
Commonwealth Games 2026 | The global rugby community has led a chorus of disappointment after 12 sports were shunted from the 2026 Commonwealth Games as part of a streamlined programme designed to save money for stand-in hosts Glasgow.
Football | Oliver Glasner’s position as Crystal Palace manager is under mounting pressure after his side equalled the club’s worst-ever start to a Premier League season, with the Austrian’s fate expected to be determined by results before the next international break. Palace have failed to win any of their first eight games.
The front pages
The Guardian’s splash is “Make it harder to put officers on trial, police leaders urge No 10”, and similarly the Times reports on “Met chief’s call to shield armed police from trials”. The Daily Mail leads with “Police officer who shot gangster has a price on his head” – that’s the top line in the Metro too, “Gangsters’ £10k price on gun cop”. In the i you can read about “Sewage action, at last” as “toothless water watchdog faces axe in new Labour plan”. Top story in the Daily Telegraph is “Alzheimer’s wonder drug faces NHS block”. The Financial Times goes with “HSBC boss draws east-west divide to steer lender through China tensions”. “Big up to Keir for letting me out early” – an offender “gloats” outside prison on the front of the Daily Express. “I’ll do my best for you” – the message from Keir Starmer to the Daily Mirror’s Pride of Britain award winners.
Today in Focus
Will the Chris Kaba murder trial change British policing?
After armed officer Martyn Blake was cleared of Kaba’s murder, many police officers are angry he was ever arrested. But the family say they don’t feel their fight for justice is over. Vikram Dodd reports
Cartoon of the day | Martin Rowson
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
In 2018, ancient carvings in a cave called Kamukuwaká in Brazil were vandalised and partially destroyed. The site was sacred to many Indigenous groups in the Upper Xingu, a tract of rainforest surrounded by soya plantations in central Brazil. There were fears that this ancient knowledge had been permanently lost but thanks to 3D imaging, a lifesize replica was made in Spain by Factum Foundation, a non-profit specialising in cultural heritage preservation. The replica is now being housed in the first Indigenous museum in the Xingu region.
To inaugurate the occasion, the Wauja people performed ritual dances all day to highlight how this was a moment of celebration and resistance for the community, and they hope the replica will preserve their cultural heritage and keep their traditions alive for future generations.
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Bored at work?
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