Good morning. For at least some of the British nationals attempting to flee the conflict that has broken out in Sudan, this morning is a moment of profound relief: the second of three evacuation flights from an airfield north of Khartoum recently arrived in Cyprus, with a third expected soon. Citizens of Turkey, France, and other countries were also flown out. But for Sudanese people – even those whose close relatives were aboard the UK flights – the exodus may simply have served as a reminder of the dangers from which they have far more limited respite.
A ceasefire between army units loyal to Sudan’s military ruler, Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) led by his former ally Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, came into effect at midnight on Tuesday, and it is supposed to last for two more days. In theory, this should provide an opportunity for civilians to flee the theatres of conflict and reach safe harbour.
But in practice, with airstrikes and reports of renewed fighting throughout the day and other impediments to travel created by the war, that prospect looks anything but secure. Three previous ceasefires have already fallen apart. Now many civilians must decide: take the dangerous road to an unreliable promise of safety, or choose the familiarity of home in a conflict zone with no obvious end in sight.
Today’s newsletter, with the Guardian columnist Nesrine Malik, is about that impossible choice, and the factors weighing on the minds of those who have to make it. Here are the headlines.
Five big stories
US news | Joe Biden has formally announced his campaign for re-election in 2024, asking Americans for four years to “finish this job”, possibly setting up an extraordinary rematch with Donald Trump. Vice-president Kamala Harris, the highest-ranking woman and person of colour in US politics, will be Biden’s running mate again.
Monarchy | New court filings submitted by Prince Harry reveal that his brother Prince William received a previously undisclosed “very large sum of money” in 2020 to settle a phone-hacking claim against the owner of the Sun and the News of the World. The high court also heard that Queen Elizabeth II personally threatened News UK with legal proceedings over hacking, only to be undermined by the then Prince Charles.
Immigration | The UK government secretly deported more than 100 Nepali guards who risked their lives to protect British embassy staff in Afghanistan before the Taliban seized back control in 2021, days after they arrived. The decision was taken even though many had been issued with six-month visas on arrival.
Politics | The head of the civil service has attempted to block Sue Gray from working with Labour until after the next general election, the Guardian has been told. Keir Starmer’s choice for his new chief of staff caused controversy when it was unveiled as Gray had led the civil service inquiry into the Partygate scandal.
Music | Harry Belafonte, the singer, actor and civil rights activist who broke down racial barriers in the US, has died aged 96. Read a tribute by the director Steve McQueen: “He had everything, but his service was always to his people.”
In depth: The four questions facing every Sudanese civilian deciding whether to stay or go
To understand the basis of the burgeoning civil war in Sudan, start with this explainer from the beginning of the conflict and this visual guide to the violence, which is most severe in Khartoum and the Darfur region. Nesrine Malik’s long read about the rise of Hemedti is a superb overview of his rivalry with Burhan, and what that has meant for the country.
Today, as the imperfectly observed ceasefire continues, the most urgent question for those living in areas affected by the violence is whether the hope of safety if they leave is worth the risk of the journey. “What I hear from people in Khartoum is jitteriness and confusion,” said Nesrine, whose family home is on the outskirts of the capital. “Lots of people have gone – but others are understandably reluctant to leave home when what happens next is so uncertain.”
Here are some of the questions facing anyone trying to decide.
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How reliable is the ceasefire?
The evidence of the several previous ceasefires is not encouraging: “They don’t hold universally enough for people to feel safe,” Nesrine said. “And so there is a lot of scepticism.”
There were reports yesterday of heavy gunfire and anti-aircraft weaponry being used in residential areas of Khartoum despite the ceasefire. Atiya Abdalla Atiya, secretary of the Sudan Doctors’ Syndicate, told AP: “Sounds of gunfire, explosions and flying warplanes are still heard across Khartoum. They don’t respect ceasefires.”
Breaches may be the result of orders from the two sides’ leadership or indiscipline among forces on the ground. “We aren’t sure, but I would say it’s likely to be a combination,” Nesrine said. “It’s possible that both sides simply don’t respect it if they feel they have an opportunity to advance in crucial areas. But knowing Khartoum and its urban environment, I would say that a lot of what is happening is likely to be due to the dynamics of whatever specific territorial battle is happening between small units on either side.
“There are a lot of reports of RSF forces getting involved in unprovoked confrontations with citizens and looting, assaulting them, and taking over their homes. These are troops who have been out on the streets for ten days, running out of money and food, and they’re more dangerous because they’re desperate.”
Sarra Majdoub, a political scientist with the Norwegian Refugee Council, gave a sense of the dangers of crossing the capital: she wrote on Twitter that she moved “four times across a battered Khartoum, like thousands. An airstrike hit my third refuge.” She said that moving across the city was like traversing a “ghost town”.
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Can I overcome the other barriers to travel?
The key routes out of the capital go north-east to Port Sudan, a city made relatively safe by its lack of strategic significance and status as an evacuation hub for westerners leaving the country, and north to the Egyptian border, where refugees must travel onward to Cairo. Even if the ceasefire were impeccably observed, there are plenty of other impediments to taking them. In this piece for Middle East Eye, Oscar Rickett and Rayhan Uddin report that ticket prices for buses out of Khartoum have at least doubled. The price for a ticket on one route from the capital to the Egyptian border has risen from $66 to $400.
The requisitioning of fuel by the two armies has meant prices have likewise soared for anyone considering travelling by car. “And you don’t just need money for that,” Nesrine said. “You need more for unforeseen costs, Egyptian currency to pay for a visa if you’re going to the border, more for onward travel to Cairo. Banks are closed, there are no ATMs or currency exchanges open, and the main money transfer app isn’t working on people’s phones. So you have to find the money before you leave in a country with no working financial network.” Meanwhile, the unreliability of phone and internet signal makes planning exit routes and checking on loved ones far more difficult.
While there are stories of remarkable generosity on the road to Port Sudan – like this one, where Twitter user @dalliasd said that in “every village and town we passed through, people would come out with hibiscus juice and cold water for the ‘Khartoum travellers’” – the journey is fraught with danger. There are fears of attacks from RSF forces who hail from poorer marginalised regions of the country and “view people from Khartoum as part of an elite that has excluded them and looked down on them,” Nesrine said. The same applies to the road north, which “runs through harsh desert territory with no shops, no towns, in 40 or 45 degree heat.”
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Can I be sure that my destination is safe?
Many of Sudan’s seven neighbours are facing their own crises, with South Sudan and Ethiopia reckoning with the aftermath of civil wars and refugee numbers that are already hard to manage. (There is still no specific safe and legal route for refugees from Sudan to the UK, and those who travel by irregular means will face detention and deportation if the government’s illegal migration bill is passed.) In Chad, where up to 20,000 people have already crossed the border, at least 100,000 in total are expected – and there are already 400,000 refugees in 14 camps near the border.
At the Egyptian border, meanwhile, there are reports of chaos. @dalliasd said that she had heard from friends and family who said the situation was “beyond horrific” and cited “the treatment, the lack of services, and the sheer number of people trying to cross.” She said a relative had arrived to find 80 buses in the queue to cross ahead of her party.
The cities within Sudan which have limited useful resources for the two armies or do not feature key infrastructure are relatively safe for now. But there is no guarantee that that situation will hold – and an end to western evacuations from Port Sudan may make the city more dangerous. “It would be really reckless for even these two volatile forces to attack there while evacuations are ongoing,” Nesrine said. “But once people are out, and as other cities are exhausted of resources, you can see the fight moving.”
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What am I leaving behind?
After less than a fortnight, those left behind have found themselves in cities shorn of basic resources, from utilities like water and electricity to medical supplies. And they find themselves living on a battlefield. The United Nations Mine Action Service says there is a significant risk of unexploded ordnance – like grenades – and urged civilians not to attempt to move them or touch them. One Twitter user reported that their family had “found a grenade inside the house gate that hasn’t gone off yet”. They said there were 13 children at the property.
A reported 13 hospitals have been shelled since the fighting began, with 19 being evacuated. Around three-quarters of the country’s hospitals are closed, with those that remain only providing emergency services. In Darfur, Cyrus Paye, an MSF worker at the only hospital still open in the city of El Fasher, wrote: “The situation is catastrophic. The majority of the wounded are civilians who were hit by stray bullets, and many of them are children … There are so many patients that they are being treated on the floor in the corridors.”
Even as the violence has raged in Khartoum, the remnants of a western presence have acted as some brake on escalation: “You don’t want to kill the US ambassador,” Nesrine said. But British and US embassy officials, among others, have now been airlifted out. Once the ceasefire ends or is decisively breached, “the bombing could now intensify”.
If Khartoum and other cities do continue to empty, “they become purely a battleground – which means those remaining become completely dispensable,” Nesrine said. “It is possible they will be totally destroyed.” This video posted on Monday by the Sudan News account from the city of Shambat in Khartoum state, where debris and black dust surround the shells of buildings at the side of a road, offers some kind of premonition of what that looks like.
Even so, when the route is so fraught, the calculus for those weighing their options is not clear. And there is another factor, Nesrine said: “What I hear from some people at home is: I’d rather face the violence somewhere I know.”
What else we’ve been reading
Tucker Carlson’s abrupt exit from Fox News (above) was a huge story in the media world. Margaret Sullivan writes that while he may not stay silent, his soapbox just got a whole lot smaller. Nimo
“It’s possible to achieve a dream, however big”: this week’s (particularly lovely) edition of the series A moment that changed me features Lawrence Okolie, a former McDonald’s employee who was inspired during the 2012 Olympics to become a boxer – and ended up a champion. Hannah J Davies, deputy editor, newsletters
Zoe Williams spoke to British Vogue editor Edward Enninful and fashion activist Sinéad Burke on putting together the latest issue of the fashion magazine, which features 19 disabled people from fashion, sport, activism and the arts. Nimo
Hannah Jane Parkinson asks what it means to be sexually fluid in a world which too often looks at everyone as merely straight or gay. Hannah
Women and non-binary people made up less than 5% of producer and engineer credits on last year’s top songs, reports Rhian Jones, despite more women entering the industry than ever before. Jones unpacks the barriers hindering career progression for talented female producers and what’s being done to address it. Nimo
Sport
Premier league | Jamie Vardy (above) stepped off the substitute bench to equalise against Leeds, salvaging a 1-1 draw for Leicester in the final minutes of the match. Rúben Neves’s stoppage-time penalty confirmed Wolves’ third successive home win, beating Crystal Palace 2-0. Aston Villa extended their unbeaten run to 10 games with a 1-0 victory against Fulham thanks to a first-half goal from Tyrone Mings.
Cricket | The Test match is going through something of a revival, thanks to England’s aggressive, swashbuckling style under coach Brendon McCullum and captain Ben Stokes. But is it sustainable? “There already is a format with no draws where teams score at 5.5 runs an over, and people don’t really like it very much,” Jonathan Liew writes.
Rugby union | Ahead of hard economic times for the sport, Robert Kitson looks at retired rugby pros struggling with the transition out of the professional game, in this week’s Breakdown newsletter. “Rarely has there been a worse time to put all your eggs in rugby’s increasingly wobbly basket,” he says. Sign up here to get The Breakdown every Tuesday.
The front pages
The Guardian reports on Prince Harry’s legal action against News Group Newspapers with “Charles ‘undermined queen over plan to sue Murdoch’, says Harry”. The Telegraph looks at the same story under the headline “Harry court claims leave Coronation peace hopes in tatters”.
The i leads with “UK troops ready to use force in Khartoum airlift”. The Times says Rishi Sunak has defended the rescue effort, under the headline “Make your own way to Sudan airlift, Britons told”.
The Mail reports on comments from a Bank of England economist with “You need to accept you are poorer!” The Mirror says 1 million kids need meal kits with the headline “Food banks heartbreak”.
Finally, the Financial Times reports “Biden asks for ‘time to finish the job’ with a second term in White House”.
Today in Focus
Why are London’s inner-city schools disappearing?
London schools in areas such as Lambeth and Camden are having to close their doors as pupils leave. Why are numbers dropping so fast – and why does it matter so much? Aditya Chakrabortty reports
Cartoon of the day | Martin Rowson
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
The German choreographer Esther Huss and her husband, the playwright Alex Oates, packed up their bags and left London after living there for 20 years, swapping the big city for a former mining village in an isolated part of Northumberland. Huss found the village to be deeply interesting because of its history, community and the melding of the urban and the natural. It was the perfect place for the pair to stretch themselves creatively – Huss set up a new dance class and Oates runs a writing group. While her choreography is inspired by dadaism, German expressionism and the Japanese dance-theatre form butoh, participants in the dance class – who are local residents – are encouraged to create their own style of movement.
“My family howl at me. [They say], ‘Oh mam, show us your latest interpretive dance!’ But it’s nice to do something different,” says 61-year-old Alison Johnson. “It’s become such a safe environment where we all get out of our comfort zone, because we trust each other, because of Esther. It’s special.”
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Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until tomorrow.
