Good morning – and happy new year.
Whether you are reading this on the way home from a very late night or feeling refreshed after tucking yourself in at precisely 00:01, welcome to 2025. While technically it may be just another day, it’s hard to avoid the feeling of renewal that comes with the new year – even if it’s accompanied by dark, gloomy days and an emptier-than-you’d-like bank account.
As you contemplate your resolutions, I’ve compiled some key stories and themes that are likely to shape the year ahead. But first, the headlines.
In depth: Expect the unexpected
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Donald Trump’s inauguration
The returning president-elect was perhaps the single most dominating figure of 2024, and that will only intensify this year.
In the run-up to inauguration day, various organisations including the Women’s March, the National Women’s Law Center and Planned Parenthood are hosting a day of action – a protest, in effect. It will almost certainly not be as big as the Women’s March demonstration held in January 2017, after Trump’s first inauguration. It brought an estimated 500,000 protesters to Washington DC while about 4 million took part in other events across the US. Unlike in 2016, this time around Trump won both the popular vote and a comfortable electoral college margin, and Republicans have secured a “trifecta” by also gaining control of the House of Representatives and the Senate. And so, crucially, Trump’s election can no longer be dismissed as an aberration, meaning there is less of a fight in the air.
Much has been written about what to expect from a second Trump term. But to boil things down, over the next 12 months we can expect trade wars – Richard Partington’s useful primer on the global economic outlook for 2025 reflects on how important they might be – government shutdowns, sweeping executive orders to reduce immigration, nativist politics and isolationist geopolitical policies.
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The climate crisis
In 2024, the world experienced another record-hottest year. Extreme weather events were more frequent and severe because of the climate emergency. This will not slow down in 2025.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says greenhouse gas emissions have to peak by 2025 and then drop sharply if the world is to limit global heating to 1.5C above preindustrial levels, as per the Paris agreement. With Trump in office and a “greenlash” in Europe, 2025 could be a bad year for climate policy. In this piece looking at the approach Keir Starmer might take this year in the UK, Fiona Harvey notes that his response to the Climate Change Committee’s recommendations on future emissions cuts will be a key test of how seriously he takes the crisis.
A good news story to keep an eye out for: more than 175 countries are expected to sign a UN treaty agreeing to reduce single-use plastics. Talks collapsed towards the end of 2024 but there are hopes that they will be revived in the coming year.
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Gaza, Ukraine and beyond
The prospects for peace and ceasefire agreements remain elusive in the major conflicts that dominated last year’s international agenda. Russia continues to make incremental gains as the war of attrition grinds on in Ukraine. Despite President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s relentless entreaties, the incoming Trump administration may opt to curtail or halt funding for Ukraine, which would prove catastrophic for Kyiv.
Though reports suggested ceasefire negotiations were gathering momentum towards the end of 2024, a breakthrough appears unlikely in Gaza as Israel persists with its offensive. The absence of a clear Israeli plan for the “day after” the war means the attacks on Gaza will continue and the Israeli military will probably lay the foundations for an indefinite period of military presence.
Meanwhile, Sudan has been in the grip of disease, displacement and unconscionable violence for nearly two years. Armed groups, often supported by foreign powers – the United Arab Emirates, Russia, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran and others – vie for gold, influence and territorial control. As the conflict continues, the risk of an increasingly fragmented environment grows, with several armed groups positioning themselves to fill power vacuums and establish themselves as security providers across the country in 2025.
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A year of significant elections
2024 was billed as “democracy’s Super Bowl”, with more than 80 national elections taking place. This year there will be fewer elections, but they will be important. Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau is expected to be ousted. Ecuador’s president Daniel Noboa, the world’s youngest elected government leader, is seeking re-election despite only being in power for two years. Germany has been locked in political turmoil for some time and its forthcoming federal election will be the most consequential vote this year.
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Culture
The crisis in live music and the unsustainable cost of touring were big talking points last year, and while less commercially successful artists continue to struggle, megastars and their stadium tours will dominate 2025. There’s Coldplay, Dua Lipa, AC/DC, Ed Sheeran, Shakira and, who could possibly forget, the Oasis reunion tour. Expect endless, tedious discourse about the state of Noel and Liam Gallagher’s relationship.
There’s plenty to see in the cinema: the third instalment in the Avatar series is coming out, and yet another Bridget Jones. Personally, I still need to go and see Robbie Williams played by a CGI chimpanzee in Better Man.
Here’s Peter Bradshaw’s pick of the year ahead, while this piece by Catherine Shoard looks at some of the auteurs back with new films this year. And if you prefer your culture with a final score attached, here’s a preview of the year’s unmissable sporting events.
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Who knows what else?
Of course, we simply could not have predicted many of 2024’s most shocking headlines. There were assassination attempts, high-profile killings, collapsed bridges and floods in the desert. Maybe we should just expect the unexpected.
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