Good morning. There will be no triumphalism, no big giveaways and certainly no rabbits out of hats: this, Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves have been at pains to tell us, is going to be a very grownup budget. And even though Reeves will promise today that “the prize on offer is immense”, we might also therefore expect it to be a painful one. Since the entire thing appears to have been briefed out in advance over the last few weeks, nobody can say they haven’t been warned.
In a way, it feels like two budgets: the optimism and ambition of a minimum wage rise, a major boost for the NHS, and significant new investment in infrastructure; and a bleaker story about misleading pledges, limited ambitions, and the biggest set of tax increases in budget history.
