After another very warm year globally, Europe is expected to experience yet another month with above-average temperatures in January.
For the first couple of weeks, the continent was notably warmer than average: 2-4C in the west and closer to 5C in central parts. This followed temperatures of almost 20C on New Year’s Day.
Although staying above average, the spatial distribution of this temperature anomaly will shift under a new jet stream set up early this week. A series of blocking lows over north-west Europe will push the jet stream south from Monday, where it will sit above Spain.
This will initially lead to some very windy conditions across southern Europe, with northern Spain the first area to experience disruption from overnight gusts of 50-60mph on Monday night and Tuesday morning.
These strong winds will travel eastwards as the jet stream continues to shift, reaching parts of Italy and the Balkans this week. Simultaneously, these strong westerly winds will push warmer air east into the Balkans, Ukraine and western Russia, where temperatures will rise into the mid- to high teens by midweek. That is about 10C above the seasonal norm, further contributing to the above-average temperature anomaly in January across Europe, despite slightly cooler conditions in western Europe under the newly formed north-westerly flow this week.
Meanwhile, further flooding is expected across California this week as the atmospheric river continues to pump heavy rain from the Pacific. Some forecasts predict that by the weekend 50-100mm of rain may fall in parts of the state, with most areas experiencing at least a further 20-40mm, exacerbating the risk of flooding.
There is, however, hope that drier conditions forecast for early next week will provide respite after weeks of rain.
