The number of small boat arrivals since Keir Starmer took power has passed 20,000, with the Home Office claiming a record number of calm autumnal days in the Channel was responsible.
A 31-day period in October and November had the highest ratio of so-called “red days” – when weather conditions make crossings likely or very likely – since records began in 2018, according to a leaked analysis.
In that time, 6,288 people crossed the Channel, compared with 768 over the same period last year.
The data will be used by the home secretary, Yvette Cooper, to explain why the number of crossings by small boats carrying people seeking refuge has jumped in recent weeks.
After a fortnight when bad weather prevented any crossings, two dinghies reached UK waters after midnight on Saturday with a combined total of 122 people onboard. This took the number of people who have arrived since 4 July to 20,110.
It comes as Cooper prepares to make a statement to the House of Commons on a deal she signed last week with the Iraqi government on joint cooperation to tackle people-smuggling gangs and increase returns of rejected claimants.
According to Home Office data covering 11 October to 10 November, 26 of the 31 days were classified as “red”, compared with just three over the same dates in 2023.
When the Conservative government left office, 2024 was on track to be the busiest ever year for small boat arrivals, with 13,574 people crossing the Channel in the six months leading up to the election.
That was almost 19% more than the 11,433 who crossed in the same period in 2023, 5% more than the 12,900 in the previous record year of 2022, and more than double the 6,594 in 2021.
In her statement to the Commons on Monday, Cooper is expected to contrast the government’s strategy with the record of her predecessors, who she will say lost control of every aspect of the immigration and asylum system, from small boat arrivals and asylum hotel costs to the total levels of net migration.
It took about eight and a half months for arrivals to pass 20,000 after Rishi Sunak became prime minister. His tenure began in the autumn, meaning his first few months in power coincided with winter weather conditions when typically fewer crossings take place.
By contrast, Starmer took on the role in the middle of the summer period when crossings are usually at their most numerous amid spells of better weather. It has taken about five months for arrivals to pass 20,000 since he came to power.
A Labour source said: “Robert Jenrick told the truth last week. He said the Tory party’s ‘handling of immigration let the country down badly’ and ‘caused immense and lasting harm’. We will not repeat those same mistakes.”
The government minister Pat McFadden told Sky News’ Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips that the UK “will always need migration” but that it had to be balanced with training the British workforce so “you’re not over-reliant on immigration”.
He said Labour would not be setting net migration targets but would publish a plan next week to reduce legal and illegal migration.
The Conservative party leader, Kemi Badenoch, admitted on Wednesday that previous Tory governments had failed to keep their promises on immigration, and she pledged to launch a radical review of Tory immigration policies.
Figures from the Office for National Statistics on Thursday showed that net migration ballooned to 906,000 in 2023.
