A surge in new oil and gas exploration in 2024 threatens to unleash nearly 12bn tonnes of planet-heating emissions, with the world’s wealthiest countries – such as the US and the UK – leading a stampede of fossil fuel expansion in spite of their climate commitments, new data shared exclusively with the Guardian reveals.
The new oil and gas field licences forecast to be awarded across the world this year are on track to generate the highest level of emissions since those issued in 2018, as heatwaves, wildfires, drought and floods cause death and destruction globally, according to analysis of industry data by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD).
The 11.9bn tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions – which is roughly the same as China’s annual carbon pollution – resulting over their lifetime from all current and upcoming oil and gas fields forecast to be licensed by the end of 2024 would be greater than the past four years combined. The projection includes licences awarded as of June 2024, as well as the oil and gas blocks open for bidding, under evaluation or planned.
Meanwhile, fossil fuel firms are ploughing more money into developing new oil and gas sites than at any time since the 2015 Paris climate deal, when the world’s governments agreed to take steps to cut emissions and curb global heating.
The world’s wealthiest countries are economically best placed – and obliged under the Paris accords – to lead the transition away from fossil fuels to cleaner energy sources. But these high-capacity countries with a low economic dependence on fossil fuels are spearheading the latest drilling frenzy despite dwindling easy-to-reach reserves, handing out 825 new licences in 2023, the largest number since records began.
Classic “petrostates” such as Saudi Arabia or Russia – which rely heavily on oil and gas revenues to balance their budgets – have faced criticism for slowing action on the climate crisis. Yet countries including the UK, the US, Canada, Norway and Australia are increasingly being thought of by some experts as the “other petrostates” , given they have access to financial and technological resources that would make the energy transition less disruptive.
While they are often portrayed as climate leaders on the world stage, these five wealthy countries are responsible for more than two-thirds (67%) of all new oil and gas licences issued globally since 2020.
“The logical first step in a ‘transition away’ from oil and gas is to stop opening new fields,” said co-author Olivier Bois von Kursk, who is a policy adviser at the IISD.
“So it is deeply concerning that exploration activity has not just continued since the Cop28 agreement but increased. Rich countries with relatively low dependence on fossil fuel revenues should be the first to stop issuing licences. We’re not seeing that in the data.”
Under the Biden administration, the US has handed out 1,453 new oil and gas licences, accounting for half of the total globally and 83% of all licences handed out by wealthy nations. This is 20% more than during the term of Donald Trump, who has promised to “drill, baby, drill” should he return to the White House.
The oil and gas industry continues to invest big in political influence in petrostates, spending $1.25bn (£1bn) on lobbying in Washington and more than $650m (£504m) in campaign contributions over the past decade, according to Open Secrets.
Meanwhile, the UK handed out more licences than any other country in May, although it is China, the world’s leading carbon emitter, that is forecast to approve the most oil and gas blocks in the rest of 2024. The UK’s newly elected Labour government has pledged to stop new drilling, but it’s unclear whether the glut of licences doled out by the outgoing Conservative party can be cancelled.
The new analysis of Rystad industry and government data by the IISD also shows:
Over the past decade, new licences issued by high-capacity, low-dependency countries including the US, the UK, Canada, Australia and Norway are estimated to have contributed five times more greenhouse gas emissions between 2014 and 2023 than all other oil- and gas-producing countries combined.
The US, which has become the world’s largest oil and gas producer by a huge margin in recent years, led the way in 2023 by issuing a record 758 new licences for extraction projects – almost as many as the previous three years combined. The total number of projected licences by the US for 2024 would lead to an estimated 397m tonnes of emissions.
The UK is forecast to hand out 72 oil and gas licences this year, which would result in an estimated 101m tonnes of planet-warming pollution, a 50-year high.
Norway is projected to hand out 80 oil and gas licences this year, resulting in 771m tonnes of greenhouse gas pollution – threatening the biggest contribution to global emissions since 2009 and the equivalent of putting 183m new gasoline-powered cars on the road.
Australia is forecast to award 20 new licences in 2024, which if it happens could generate an estimated 217m tonnes of carbon pollution in the long term – the most since 2009 and more than the past five years combined.
The latest data shows that Russia will account for three-quarters of global emissions resulting from new licences awarded in June, according to a new monthly IISD newsletter.
The amount spent by major oil and gas companies on exploring and developing new wells has climbed significantly since the Covid-19 pandemic, with $302bn to be spent on well development this year, the most in a decade.
The UK, Norwegian and Australian governments disputed some of the figures and defended their climate policies. The US and Canada did not respond.
The glut of new oil and gas activity comes as July is on track to be the 14th hottest consecutive month on record, as communities across the world grapple with deadly extreme weather and slow-onset climate disasters such as sea level rise and melting glaciers. The last decade was the hottest ever recorded, with 2023 the single hottest year.
A recent study found the world has enough fossil fuel projects planned to meet global energy demand forecasts to 2050 – if governments deliver the changes promised in order to keep the world from breaching its climate targets.
But the oil and gas rush, led by the richest countries, risks demolishing hopes that the world can stay within internationally agreed-upon limits aimed at preventing catastrophic heatwaves, wildfires, flooding and other impacts. No new oil and gas project can proceed if the Paris agreement, which calls for global temperatures to be restrained to a 1.5C (2.7F) rise above preindustrial levels, is to be met, according to the International Energy Agency.
Despite this, countries are pushing ahead with a huge expansion in oil and gas activity, identifying and developing new resources at a pace not seen since the Paris deal was inked in a wave of optimism in 2015.
The world’s consumption of fossil fuels climbed to a record high last year even as investment into clean energy such as solar and wind started to eclipse coal, oil and gas. PetroChina, the Chinese state-owned oil and gas arm, has spent the most on both exploration and well development over the past decade, with ExxonMobil, Saudi Aramco, Sinopec and Chevron among other businesses sinking the largest investments in new oil and gas.
So far in 2024, the three dozen or so high-capacity, low-dependency countries including the US, the UK and Norway have issued 121 new licences – more than the rest of the world combined.
The newly licensed reserves in rich countries – which are smaller and harder to reach because the larger reserves have already been exploited – could eventually generate 172m tonnes of CO2, the equivalent that would be produced by 43 new coal plants.
Those are the same countries that are also ploughing ahead with huge tax giveaways for industry-led “solutions” like carbon capture and storage and “blue” hydrogen that independent experts say are inefficient, unjust and economically damaging.
The data reveals a deep-seated inequity – and a key climate justice issue – that developing countries have for years tried to raise at the annual UN climate talks. In order to honour their legally binding obligations under the Paris agreement, developed countries must go first when it comes to phasing out fossil fuels, starting immediately, and stopping expansion plans.
“The hypocrisy of wealthy nations, historically responsible for the climate crisis, is staggering as they continue to invest heavily in fossil fuels – putting the world on track for unimaginable climate catastrophe while claiming to be climate leaders,” said Harjeet Singh, global engagement director for the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative.
“Despite having the economic means to transition away from fossil fuels, these nations are petrostates choosing profit over the planet, undermining global efforts to avert the climate emergency.”
Mega-licences – big blocks that will result in the most emissions – are typically awarded in developing countries such as Mozambique, which have a low capacity to transition away from oil and gas.
Developed countries have contributed the most to the climate crisis and benefited the most from fossil fuels, while developing countries have contributed least but are suffering the worst effects – in part because they do not have equal access to mitigate, adapt and recover from climate impacts such as drought, floods, wildfires and extreme heat.
“The US has become a petrostate and is still, even under President Biden, permitting new drilling,” said John Sterman, a climate policy expert at MIT. “The developed countries don’t show any significant efforts to limit drilling, but it’s not just them. Guyana and countries in south-east Asia are also aggressively seeking to expand exploitation activity. This is about national policy but it’s also being driven by the oil companies.”
Sterman said there was a “fundamental contradiction” between the promises made by countries at annual UN climate summits and the ongoing oil and gas expansion. “We can’t keep going on like this,” he said.
Just five global north governments – the US, the UK, Australia, Canada and Norway – are responsible for a majority (51%) of planned expansion from new oil and gas fields through 2050, and they stand out as the biggest climate hypocrites, according to the Planet Wreckers report by Oil Change International last year.
The Biden administration has defended its record – even as the US entrenched its position as the world’s largest oil and gas producer. John Podesta, Biden’s top climate adviser, said last month that US production was “a good thing, because following the illegal invasion of Ukraine, and the need that Europe had to rely on different sources rather than Russia fossils, it was important that the US could step up and supply a good deal of that need”.
Podesta added: “But over time, the science is clear, we’ve got to transition away and begin to replace those resources with both zero carbon electricity and renewable resources.”
Canada’s prime minister, Justin Trudeau, has previously defended the country’s climate policies and hailed its 2030 emissions reduction plan, and in April this year said it was on a solid path towards its reduction targets while making “historic investments in clean technology”.
A spokesperson for the UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero said: “Making Britain a clean energy superpower is at the heart of the government’s agenda, securing our energy independence and tackling the climate crisis … We will not issue new licences to explore new fields and will not revoke existing oil and gas licences. We will manage existing fields for the entirety of their lifespan.”
Elisabeth Sæther, Norway’s petroleum ministry state secretary, said that her country was committed to cutting its emissions. “At the same time, we see that the world will still need oil and gas,” she added. “Europe will remain dependent on imports from other regions for many years. Norwegian oil and gas can contribute to a sustainable, affordable and secure energy supply.”
A spokesperson for the Australian government said: “Reaching net zero, and decarbonising our economy as quickly as possible, remains front and centre of the Albanese government’s agenda.
“Our energy policies are sensible and pragmatic, focused on delivering the shift to clean, cheap energy that Australians deserve, bringing down prices for households and businesses while also cutting emissions.”
Earlier this month, Hurricane Beryl, the earliest category 5 storm ever observed in the Atlantic, ripped a path of destruction through the Caribbean, Mexico and Texas, leaving at least 11 people dead and thousands homeless.
In the aftermath, Ralph Gonsalves, the prime minister of St Vincent and the Grenadines, where Beryl “flattened” one island and severely damaged others in the archipelago, said: “What we see here are the consequences of a rampaging climate change. We are in the era of the Anthropocene. And the developed countries, the major emitters, are not taking this matter seriously.
“The world, if we don’t move to net zero, we are going to be a very inhospitable place to be in another two, three decades. I mean, this is not scaremongering; this is science. And we are on the frontlines of this.”
On Thursday in The other petrostates series: The Trans Mountain contradiction: how can Canada lead on climate while doubling down on oil?
The estimated volumes of discovered oil and gas embodied in licenced blocks were extracted from Rystad Energy’s UCubeExploration database. Forecasts are based on government and/or company reporting as well as geologic and seismic data to determine estimated embodied volumes of oil and gas in licenced blocks. Global data was then disaggregated at the country level to classify oil and gas producers into four groups based on their capacity to transition and dependence on fossil fuel revenues using the Civil Society Equity Review (CSER) methodology. Proxies were used to classify smaller producer countries not included in the CSER report.
