Mass movements against the Trump administration are poised to take a different form in year two: more disruptive and potentially more violent.
Why it matters: Tens of thousands of Americans are expected to participate in walkouts on Tuesday, the one-year anniversary of President Trump's inauguration, setting the stage for what future resistance could look like.
- "The vanguard in this are starting to think about how ... one day, peaceful, legally permitted marches are not enough to push back" against the administration, Dana Fisher, a professor at American University's School of International Service, said.
- "And they're starting to think through what types of tactics are ones that people are comfortable with and would be willing and open to participating in to expand the toolbox."
Driving the news: To mark the second year of Trump's term, people are encouraged to walk out of work, school and commerce on Jan. 20 at 2pm local time as part of the "Free America" protest.
- "A free America begins the moment we refuse to cooperate," the movement's website said. "This is not a request. This is a rupture. This is a protest and a promise. In the face of fascism, we will be ungovernable."
- About 800 Free America events were planned as of Monday afternoon, with more than 38,200 RSVPs.
The other side: "President Trump is making America greater than ever before for all Americans," White House spokesperson Liz Huston said in a Monday statement.
"Our folks want to do more than just mass mobilization," said Tamika Middleton, the managing director of Women's March, which organized the walkout. "They want to actually say that we withdraw our consent from what is happening" in this administration.
- Tuesday's protests follow several high-profile events in Minnesota after an ICE agent shot and killed Renee Nicole Good. Those protests prompted Trump to threaten to invoke the rarely used Insurrection Act, though he said Friday that there is currently "no reason" to do so.
The big picture: Last year, protest turnout peaked at 7 million people during the second No Kings rally in October. Future protests could see 12 million participants, or about 3.5% of the U.S. population, per the Center for American Progress.
- 3.5% of a population is considered the point at which it's difficult for governments to ignore calls for change, Harvard Kennedy School research shows.
Friction point: "I don't think that there is an intervention that will have the MAGA regime see the error of its ways," Rachel O'Leary Carmona, Women's March executive director, said.
- "I do think there are interventions that demonstrate the political, electoral and financial cost of authoritarianism in our communities, and those are the things that we have to be focused on."
State of play: Anti-Trump protests in 2025 were largely peaceful, despite the president and some allies stoking fears of violence and insisting — without providing evidence — that protesters were paid.
- Preliminary survey data shared exclusively with Axios by Fisher shows an increase in protesters who are open to political violence.
- As of Jan. 16, 34% of those polled agreed that Americans "may have to resort to violence in order to save our country."
- That's up 11 percentage points from protesters surveyed at the October No Kings protest, and slightly down from a peak of 40% at the June No Kings protest.
"Only so many more people [can] get murdered in front of cameras who are peaceful protesters in cities at the hands of ICE before there are going to be some folks in the streets who feel like peaceful non-violence is not enough," Fisher said.
Go deeper:
- Venezuela protests revive "No Blood for Oil" message
- How Minneapolis became America's flashpoint for protests
Methodology: Researchers surveyed 3,531 people nationwide who participated in the first No Kings protests in June, 348 protesters who participated in the second No Kings protest in Washington, D.C., in October, and 4,058 people who plan on participating in Free America events across the U.S.
Editor's note: This story has been updated with comment from the White House and an updated RSVP count.
