The Congressional Budget Office’s latest monthly budget says the U.S. government operated at a deficit of $1.17 trillion for the first six months of the fiscal year—from October 2025 to March 2026.
While the deficit is smaller than the shortfall for the same period last year, thanks in part to President Trump’s tariff regime, the fact remains that the U.S. economy is piling more debt atop a $39 trillion heap. Aside from the primary deficit, economists are also alarmed by the interest payments now required to service the debt—estimated to come in at more than $1 trillion this year.
The question of public debt is a concern for many, from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon. Many have theories on how the borrowing may adversely impact the economy in the long run, from a squeezing out of public investment through to a market “reckoning” where bond investors demand higher returns for lending. Others suggest inflation may merely be allowed to trend higher, meaning the real value of the debt is eroded over time.
Indeed, the value of the debt itself is not the concern for many. Their alarm stems from the fact that the debt-to-GDP ratio is increasingly out of balance, and that the U.S. economy isn’t growing fast enough to keep up with its borrowing rate.
