As recently as a few months ago you would have got long odds on England and Wales becoming the first two teams to qualify for the quarter-finals of the World Cup. By this stage it should go without saying that they are in the kinder side of the draw, but for both teams it is an impressive achievement when you measure it against where they have come from this year.
England have qualified for the quarter-finals with a game to spare, having dropped only one point and conceded one try, so whichever way you look at it, it is a great achievement. Every time I give England credit I hear excuses: “Well, Argentina were desperately poor” or “Well, Chile are no good”. But at some point can we just appreciate England for what they are doing?
Every week we’ve seen a slightly different team, we’ve seen progress and they’ve definitely got momentum. If I was to give them a school report it would be a B+. I’m just fascinated by their team selection against Samoa because I think we’ll get a true indication of how they want to play and how they might line up in the quarter-finals.
Samoa will give them a well-timed warm-up for what is shaping up to be a quarter-final against Fiji. Make no mistake, Fiji are streets ahead of Samoa in terms of their development but England will encounter a similar level of physicality in both matches. What has struck me about Fiji is how impressive their exit strategy has been. That pragmatism, allied with their power and their individual brilliance, goes a long way to explaining why they find themselves in the position they are now in.
In Wales’s case, once again, measure them against where they were. Their Six Nations match against England was almost boycotted and the captain, Ken Owens, said they were a laughing stock. Seven months later and they’re the first team to qualify for the quarter-finals. The more games that are played, the more rugby we’re seeing at the tournament, the more impressive their bonus-point victory over Fiji becomes.
The understanding and execution of their gameplan is of huge credit to the team of coaches – there is a total buy-in. You can see from their energy, their fitness, the scrum has become a weapon and there’s some attacking flair. They’re looking good and I fully expect them to reach a semi-final.
A number of teams will be looking at Wales and not wanting to face them because they are tough, hard to beat and they can take the game away from you in so many different places. They’ve also got one of the most outstanding players in the tournament as captain in Jac Morgan. The 22:22 kick was brilliant but his assist for Gareth Davies, people should look back at that: the line is great, the acceleration, but the pass can so easily go forward or get intercepted. The timing of the pass is brilliant, if a centre made it you’d say that’s why he’s in the team. You wouldn’t normally expect that from a seven, who is also asked to make 20 tackles.
It’s fascinating to compare and contrast how Wales, and England for that matter, have come together while Australia have done the total opposite when all three nations appointed new coaches at similar times late last year. As we saw last Sunday, Wales are light years ahead of Australia.
From the outside looking in there are three things – level of performance, messaging and selection. Warren Gatland has nailed those. Take the messaging: he keeps talking about how fit his players are. I don’t know if they’re the fittest team but if you keep saying it your team goes into the last 20 minutes with a huge amount of belief and confidence.
The other thing is the vision. Gatland has mentioned the youth and the experience in his squad but he does not repeatedly talk about it being a five-year project, it’s about this World Cup. Eddie Jones conversely has repeatedly talked about building and while I get that every coach has to spin plates and balance the here and now and the future, when you’re at a World Cup you cannot be planning for the future, it’s about what you do now. The Rugby World Cup is not a development tool.
Jones has also got selection wrong. He hauled Carter Gordon – the only specialist fly-half he picked – off against Fiji and then dropped him against Wales. They’ve had some bad luck, Will Skelton and Taniela Tupou would make a huge difference, but they are not the only team who have had injuries and suspensions. Against Wales, after 15 minutes they looked devoid of confidence, ideas, plans, conviction and execution. I don’t know how many times I’ve been able to say that about an Australian team since I’ve been involved in rugby in the last 20 years.
