This government must not fail. Let’s get that clear from the start. If Keir Starmer does not succeed, too many British voters will conclude that both the traditional parties, Labour and Conservative, have proved useless and that it is time to try something else – with that something else being nationalist populism. If this Labour government goes down, what comes next will be Faragism, either as a Reform UK-Conservative hybrid or neat and undiluted.
That is what’s at stake. For evidence, you need only look at our fellow democracies suffering that precise fate. The US has turned back to Donald Trump, while France is witnessing the slow death of Emmanuel Macron’s brand of centrism, as Marine Le Pen stands by. Germany’s Social Democratic party-led coalition collapsed last month, and polls show the SPD lagging behind the far-right Alternative für Deutschland. On Thursday, Reform edged ahead of Labour in a survey for the first time – and was only two points behind the Conservatives. And that’s before Elon Musk has handed over a penny of the $100m (£78m) he is said to be mulling as a gift to Reform – money that, as we know from his outsized role in last month’s US election, can make a big difference. Britain enjoys no special immunity from this contagion. It could happen here.
